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BREAKING: Bitcoin slides from nearly $80,000 as Senate votes on Clarity Act

Bitcoin's Monday pop was built on a promise, and the promise hasn't held.

Donald Trump said oil would "drop like a rock" once the fighting with Iran ends, traders read it as rate relief, and the coin ran toward $80,000.

That was the high…

It has drifted lower all day since, back under $77,000, giving up the whole move and a little more.

Bitcoin trades on the rate path now, and that path runs straight through the oil market.

Crude above $100 keeps inflation sticky and gives the Fed a reason to stay tight, so cheaper oil would ease the pressure.

Oil hasn't fallen, though, and has climbed again, because a promise to end a war isn't the end of one.

Underneath, the other supports gave way too.

The CLARITY Act, the market-structure bill the industry had been counting on, faces a Senate vote today with its odds on prediction markets sliding into the teens as Democrats hold out.

That bill was meant to give crypto its first clear US rulebook, so the odds cracking pulls away one more thing for buyers to lean on.

The ETF money that funded the rally turned and left last week, so the steadiest bid behind the run was already gone.

And the Fed is all but certain to raise rates on Wednesday, oil or no oil.

So the bounce had nothing under it once the promise didn't pay off.

Bitcoin is trading on the price of oil, the odds in Washington, and the mood of the Fed, and today all three pushed it lower. 🚀

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Will Clemente watched the leverage drain out of Bitcoin all weekend, right before the Fed's biggest meeting of the year.

He's one of the most respected on-chain analysts in crypto and co-founder of Reflexivity Research.

Here's what he posted.

After Friday's CPI wobble, the small build-up of futures leverage got flushed out.

The range lows got soaked up by spot buyers, real money rather than borrowed bets.

That's the healthier kind of bid, because a market propped up by leverage snaps on the first surprise, while one built on spot can sit still through it.

Even with ETF money stepping back this week, the buyers on the exchanges were there to catch the dip.

So Bitcoin walked into Wednesday already de-risked, and Clemente added to his own stack.

A rate hike is about 93% priced in now, up from 59% a week ago.

When a move is that certain, the decision barely counts on the day, because it's already sitting in the price.

What's left to swing Bitcoin is the dot plot, the Fed's own map of where rates go after this one.

A hike everyone saw coming can't shock the market, but a shift in that map can.

The froth is gone, the spot bid is real, and the only surprise left Wednesday is the one the Fed hasn't shown yet. 🫧

Back to the ETF flow data, our weekly read on institutional appetite.

Green means money flowing in, red means it’s heading out.

And after three green weeks, Bitcoin turned red.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs bled roughly $463 million across a holiday-shortened week, four sessions and every one of them red, a hard turn from the $987 million they pulled in the week before.

Thursday was the worst of it at $283 million out, with ARK’s fund alone shedding $164 million.

ARKB gave up $156 million on the week, Grayscale’s GBTC another $129 million, and even IBIT leaked around $53 million after carrying the last three weeks.

Ether went the other way.

The ether funds took in about $197 million over the same four days, with BlackRock’s ETHA adding $140 million of it and a single $216 million Friday doing most of the lifting.

That flips last week’s picture, when Bitcoin hoovered up 82% of the money and ether trailed.

Now Bitcoin is the one bleeding while ether holds the bid.

Combined, the two funds still ended roughly $266 million in the red, snapping a three-week run of inflows that had funded the push toward $80,000.

The money that carried the rally didn’t just slow this week, it left, and it left Bitcoin first. 📊

Strategy Buys Back $139 Million of STRC, Bitcoin Stack Frozen for Second Week. The treasury firm left its 845,050 Bitcoin untouched for a second straight week, slowing its preferred-stock buyback from last week's $176 million.

Robinhood plans share redemptions, voting rights for stock tokens, after criticism. CEO Vlad Tenev said the added features answer scrutiny over whether holders of its offshore stock tokens actually own the underlying shares.

Kraken brings DeFi yield to tokenized stocks and ETFs. New xStocks vaults let investors earn yield on tokenized Nvidia shares and US ETFs by lending the assets into DeFi markets.

Bitcoin production rebounds in August for BitFuFu, edges higher at CleanSpark as Canaan slips. Canaan sold its entire Ether position and 54 Bitcoin, using some of the proceeds to buy back 13.6 million of its shares.

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Trivia Answer: A misspelling of "hold" in a 2013 Bitcoin forum post 🥳

HODL started as a typo of "hold" in a 2013 BitcoinTalk post and stuck as slang for holding through the swings rather than selling. "Hold On for Dear Life" is a later backronym, not the origin.

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