🄜 Why you're still early

PLUS: Ethereum ETFs

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Today’s edition is brought to you by RYSE - the smart home company that aims to become the Ring and Nest of the smart shades industry.

GM to all 64,672 of you. Crypto Nutshell #317 settin’ sail... ⛵ šŸ„œ

We’re crypto newsletter that’s more amusing than Jim replacing all of Dwight's belongings with wrapping paper... šŸŽ šŸŽ‰

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What we’ve cooked up for you today…

  • šŸ† Bitcoin network milestone

  • šŸ‘‘ There is no second best

  • šŸ¤” Are we early?

  • šŸ’° And more…

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MARKET WATCH āš–ļø

market data

Prices as at 6:25am ET

Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section

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BITCOIN NETWORK MILESTONE šŸ†

BREAKING: Bitcoin reaches one billion transactions

Bitcoin

The Bitcoin network has just hit a huge milestone.

After 15 years, the network processed its one billionth transaction. 🄳

The 1,000,000,000 transaction was processed in block 842,241 at 9:34pm UTC on May 5th.

saylor

Bitcoin’s first ever transaction took place on 3rd January, 2009. So this milestone comes 15 years, fourth months and four days after Bitcoins creation.

On average the network has processed 178,475 daily transactions over its 5,603 day existence.

Bitcoin transactions

This milestone also doesn’t include any transactions made on the Lightning Network - this is strictly layer 1 transactions.

And it reached this milestone without a single government, bank or corporation in control.

An absolutely massive achievement for the network.

And we’re only just getting started.

TAKE A PEEK BEHIND THE (SMART) CURTAIN šŸ‘€

ryseb1

Best Buy has a proven record of placing early bets on home-technology products that go on to dominate the market.

For example:

  • Ring - acquired by Amazon for $1.2B

  • Nest - acquired by Google for $3.2B

Pay attention, because Best Buy just unveiled a new smart-home product in over 100 stores that has potential for massive returns – RYSE Smart Shades.

RYSE is poised to dominate the smart shades market (currently growing at 50% annually) and they’ve just opened a public offering of shares priced at just $1.50/share.

Current shareholders have already seen their value increase 20% year-over-year, with strong upside remaining as they scale into retail.

If you missed out on Ring and Nest, this is your chance to secure your stake in the smart home market.

Invest in RYSE before they become a household name.

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THERE IS NO SECOND BEST šŸ‘‘

There is no second best.

Bitcoin is the only institutional grade crypto asset.

That’s the latest out from Michael Saylor (who didn’t see that coming?)

saylor

Presenting at Bitcoin for Corporations, Michael Saylor gave a talk suitably titled ā€œThere is no second bestā€.

During the talk, Saylor made a bold claim.

No other crypto asset is going to achieve institutional acceptance this decade:

ā€œThere is no second best crypto. Bitcoin is the best crypto asset. Why is it the best crypto asset? Because it’s increasingly clear that no other crypto token is going to achieve institutional acceptance this decade.ā€

Michael Saylor

All eyes will be on May 23rd.

That’s the SEC’s decision deadline for VanEck’s Ethereum ETF.

The current consensus is that we’ll likely see the Ethereum ETFs denied on this date. (as we’ve previously discussed)

However, other analysts (and us) believe the Ethereum ETFs are likely to be approved sometime in 2025.

But Saylor disagrees with this…

ā€œBy the end of May, you’ll know that Ethereum is not going to be approved. And when Ethereum is not going to be approved, sometime this summer it will be very clear to everyone that Ethereum is deemed a crypto asset security not a commodity.ā€

Michael Saylor

Saylor believes that the SEC will deem Ethereum a security, meaning we likely won’t ever see an Ethereum spot ETF.

And once Ethereum is deemed a security, everything else will then also be considered a security.

ā€œAfter that, you’re going to see that ETH, BNB, Solana, Ripple, Cardano, everything down the stack is just a crypto asset security unregistered. None of them will ever be wrapped by a spot ETF. None of them will be accepted by Wall Street. None of them will be accepted by mainstream institutional investors.ā€

Michael Saylor

For these reasons, Saylor explains that Bitcoin is the winner.

ā€œ[Bitcoin] is the one universal consensus accepted institutional grade crypto asset in the world… The writing is on the wall. This is the winner. There is no second best.ā€

Michael Saylor

This is definitely a controversial take by Saylor.

And we have to disagree with it.

We believe the Ethereum spot ETFs will be approved eventually, remember:

  • SEC has already approved Ethereum futures ETFs

  • BlackRock has applied for an Ethereum ETF - they have a 576:1 ETF approval record (they essentially never lose)

  • The CFTC has stated that Ethereum is a commodity

Do you agree with Saylor’s take?

Let us know in today’s poll šŸ‘‡

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ARE WE EARLY? šŸ¤”

We get asked all the time:

Isn’t it too late to get started in crypto?

And that couldn’t be further from the truth…

Today, we’ll show why we’re still early.

To do that we’ll be taking a look at the classic Bitcoin HODL Waves.

Each coloured band shows the percentage of Bitcoin that last moved within that time period.

As the colours get cooler, the age bands get older (yellow being the oldest, representing coins last moved within the last 3 - 6 months).

We’ll just be focusing on short-term holders today.

onchain

Here’s the breakdown:

  • 24hr: 0.48%

  • 1d - 1w: 2.38%

  • 1w - 1m: 3.60%

  • 1m - 3m: 13.43%

  • 3m - 6m: 6.32%

That’s ~26.21% of the Bitcoin supply that has moved within the last 6 months.

Which leaves ~73.79% of the Bitcoin supply having not moved in 6+ months. 🤯

That’s an insane amount of the supply not moving.

We like to use this metric as a FOMO (fear of missing out) indicator.

As the price of Bitcoin increases, the amount of short-term holders also increases.

This is due to long-term holders deciding to take profits by selling their coins. (This makes those coins ā€œyoungā€ again) šŸ¤‘

You can see in the chart above, it begins to spike as Bitcoin reaches new highs.

Although, each spike has been smaller than the previous one. Which means the amount of long-term holders increases with each cycle.

With such a limited amount of Bitcoin available for sale right now.

So yes, based off this chart, we’re still early…

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CRACKING CRYPTO 🄜

Six Coinbase customers claim the exchange is violating securities laws in new lawsuit. The lawsuit alleges that the digital assets listed on Coinbase are securities.

Bitcoin reaches one billion transactions. Bitcoin has reached another milestone, processing its one billionth transaction at block 842,241.

ā€˜Sell in May and Go Away’: The Seasonality of Crypto-asset Returns. The summer months, between June and September, have historically brought significantly lower investor returns than other months of the year.

The 1 Type of Bitcoin ETF You Should Avoid. Not all Bitcoin ETFs are created equal. Just ask Cathie Wood of Ark Invest.

WHAT WE’RE READING šŸ“š

Want to get even smarter? Check these out.

p.s. all completely FREE (one click subscribe link)

  • Bitcoin Breakdown (link) - Weekly Bitcoin recap

  • The Hustle (link) - Get Smarter on Business and Tech

  • Your Next Breakthrough (link) - Personal growth with Mark Manson

  • Wild Golf (link) - Twice weekly Golf insights & tips

  • The Neuron (link) - AI trends and tools to keep you ahead

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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? āœļø

Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after ā€œMeme Cornerā€)

Who is the creator of Bitcoin?

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MEME CORNER šŸ˜‚

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

meme

Trivia Answer: D) Satoshi Nakamoto 🄳 

Bitcoin was created by an anonymous person or group using the pseudonym Satoshi Nakamoto.

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NUTCASE REVIEW OF THE DAY šŸ”

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.

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