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GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #690 pullin’ on threads… 🧵🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more emotional than a young boy befriending an alien stranded far from home... 🚲🌕

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

• 🏦 Why is crypto crashing?

• ⚡ Ethereum supply shock

• 🤯 Long-term holder sell off?

• 💰 And more…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

WHY ARE WE CRASHING? 🏦

BREAKING: Crypto Bleeds Ahead of Powell's Jackson Hole Speech - Eight Reasons Why Traders Are Nervous

Crypto’s bleeding red - and Powell’s the reason why. 📉

Today Bitcoin slipped under $113K.

ETH dumped 5.3% below $4,100.

And Altcoins got smoked - ADA down 8%, XRP off 6%.

Crypto stocks got hit even harder, with MARA, COIN, and MSTR each sinking 5–7%.

Meanwhile, the S&P barely flinched.

The difference? Liquidity.

Crypto runs on it - and the Fed controls the tap. This week, traders are bracing for two events:

• July’s FOMC minutes releasing on August 20

• Powell’s Jackson Hole speech on August 22

Together, they’ll decide if September delivers a long-awaited rate cut - or yet another delay.

Here are the eight macro forces traders are watching most closely. 👇

1. Tariffs’ Delayed Bite

Companies are still absorbing tariff costs. But once they pass them on, inflation will likely jump, forcing the Fed to wait before cutting.

2. Sticky Inflation Data

Despite some cooling, the Producer Price Index is hotter than forecasts. Wholesale pressure today means consumer pain tomorrow.

3. Corporate Limits

Executives warn they’ll soon raise prices. That means higher inflation, not lower rates.

4. Mixed Economic Signals

Jobs are slowing. But consumers are still strong. The Fed doesn’t cut in the middle of a tug-of-war.

5. Policy Uncertainty

Tariffs collide with trade and fiscal policy. Too messy, too risky. Powell could play it safe.

6. Lessons From History

2018–2019 tariff shocks pushed inflation higher and kept the Fed cautious. Powell remembers.

7. Forward-Looking Indicators

Fresh data on manufacturing and services drops this week (Thursday). If it shows tariff pain, expect hawkish Powell.

8. Internal Divisions

The July minutes may reveal hawks vs. doves. And when the Fed is split, consensus usually means “wait.”

Despite all that, markets are still pricing in an 86.1% chance of a September cut.

For crypto, the stakes couldn’t be bigger:

• Hawkish Powell = higher-for-longer rates, tighter liquidity, squeezed miners, weaker altcoins.

• Dovish Powell = liquidity floodgates cracking open - the spark for the next big rally.

History shows peak fear around Fed policy often sets the stage for the next big run.

2019 tariff panic led to the 2020 breakout. And pandemic cuts unleashed the biggest bull ever.

Stay ready. 🚀

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ETHEREUM SUPPLY SHOCK ⚡

This week, Ethereum has been on a rollercoaster, sliding almost -10%.

But according to Wall Street veteran Tom Lee? The bigger picture couldn’t be clearer.

Last time Ethereum was in this position?

It pulled a 50x.

Yesterday Tom pointed out:

In other words: Ethereum exchange supply has collapsed. 

Last time it was in this position, prices went from $30 to $1,500.

A not too shabby 50x.

And it’s not just on-chain data flashing green.

Google search trends for Ethereum just hit an all-time high.

Interest is exploding.

Don’t let short-term volatility shake you out. Something big is building.

Ethereum is gearing up for its next tidal wave. 🌊

LONG-TERM HOLDER SELL OFF? 🤯

Let’s check in on one of our favourite metrics: Bitcoin’s supply last active 1+ years ago.

It’s a simple but powerful signal - tracking how much BTC has remained untouched as a percentage of total circulating supply.

Here’s the logic:

• Metrics rising: long-term holders are accumulating coins 📈

• Metrics declining: long-term holders are selling coins 📉

Here’s the latest supply breakdown vs. two weeks ago:

• 🔴 Supply last active 1+ years ago: 61.34% (down from 61.40%)

• 🟠 Supply last active 2+ years ago: 51.76% (up from 51.01%)

• 🟢 Supply last active 3+ years ago: 43.81% (down from 44.00%)

• 🔵 Supply last active 5+ years ago: 30.02% (down from 30.05%)

That means over 61% of all Bitcoin hasn’t moved in a year.

What stands out this week?

Almost every age band slipped slightly - except the 2+ year cohort, which actually ticked higher.

That tells us some holders who bought within the last couple of years are tightening their grip, even as older hands took profits with Bitcoin brushing new all-time highs.

But zoom out and the story is clear.

Nearly two-thirds of the supply hasn’t budged.

That level of conviction isn’t just rare - it’s potential rocket fuel. 💎🚀

CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜

US Ethereum ETFs face second-largest outflow of $196.6 million in a day. Ethereum ETFs have experienced the second-largest pullback since launch, driven by BlackRock and Fidelity redemptions.

Michael Saylor's MSTR Declines 7.8% Alongside Drop in Bitcoin. Galaxy, SharpLink, BitMine were among the names that plunged nearly 10% as risk appetite faded and bitcoin sunk to $113,000.

Key Republican senator expects Democratic support for US crypto market structure bill. South Carolina Senator Tim Scott spoke at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium on Tuesday to address a potential path forward on crypto market structure.

Digital asset treasuries eclipse venture funding as companies raise $15 billion in 2025. Traditional crypto startup VC rounds total just 856 deals in 2025, compared to 1,933 in the same period last year.

WHAT WE’RE READING 📚

Want to get even smarter? Check these out.

p.s. all completely FREE (one click subscribe link)

• Raremints (link) - Daily crypto news

• Bitcoin Breakdown (link) - Daily Bitcoin news

• Techpresso (link) - Daily tech news and insights

• The Hustle (link) - Get Smarter on Business and Tech

• Your Next Breakthrough (link) - Personal growth with Mark Manson

• The Neuron (link) - AI trends and tools to keep you ahead

CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️

Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

MEME CORNER 😂

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: 3.125 BTC 🥳

Each halving slashes block rewards by 50%. In 2024, rewards fell from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block. ⏳

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.