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What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: Bitcoin sell pressure is cooling off - but the whales aren't done yet.

The worst of the selling may be over.

But that doesn't mean the coast is clear…

Bitcoin exchange deposits spiked to around 60,000 BTC on February 6 as the price slid toward $60,000.

Since then, inflows have dropped roughly 60% to about 23,000 BTC on a seven-day average, according to CryptoQuant.

The flood of Bitcoin to exchanges has eased. But who's still selling tells a different story.

CryptoQuant's Exchange Whale Ratio just hit 0.64 - its highest level since 2015. That means 64% of all Bitcoin flowing into exchanges is coming from the top 10 largest depositors.

This fits the pattern CryptoQuant flagged late last year - what analyst J.A. Maartun called "the great redistribution."

Long-term holders handing coins to new owners in waves. We covered VanEck's breakdown of this same dynamic recently. Mid-cycle holders and top buyers are selling. While patient hands are absorbing.

The difference now is that the buying side looks thinner.

Daily USDT inflows into exchanges have collapsed - from a high of $616 million back in November to just $27 million last week.

At one point in late January, net flows actually went negative by $469 million.

That's the dry powder disappearing.

And it's not just Bitcoin. Altcoin exchange deposits have jumped 22% in 2026 compared to Q4 2025. CryptoQuant says that kind of broad-based deposit activity usually signals weak confidence across the market.

For context, CryptoQuant's previous analysis puts Bitcoin's "ultimate bear market bottom" at around $55,000 based on realized price - a level that has historically acted as major support.

Prediction markets currently put the odds of BTC hitting $55K before bouncing to $84K at roughly 57%.

Sell pressure is fading. But the structure underneath is still fragile. 🚀

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Bitcoin just hit a new yearly low.

Down ~3.5% today, sliding to ~$65,000 and dragging the rest of the market with it.

Timelines are filled with panic. Red candles everywhere. And right on cue, the "crypto is dead" crowd is back.

But Fred Krueger isn't flinching.

Krueger is a Stanford PhD mathematician, former Wall Street prop trader at Salomon Brothers, serial entrepreneur with 10+ exits, and co-author of The Big Bitcoin Book.

He's been deep in Bitcoin for years, and he just made a post that cut through all the noise:

He took a direct shot at one of the most famous bears in finance, Michael Burry, saying people like him have no idea what Bitcoin actually is.

Krueger's thesis? Massive currency debasement is coming. And with it, massive demand for the one asset that can't be printed into oblivion.

That's it. No charts. No technical analysis. No hedging. Just conviction rooted in the same macro math that has driven every major Bitcoin bull run in history.

Governments will keep printing. Currencies will keep losing purchasing power. And Bitcoin will keep absorbing the demand from people who see it coming.

Days like today are when conviction gets tested. They're also when the biggest opportunities get created.

The fearful sell. The informed buy. 🧠

Let’s kick off the week with a look at the Bitcoin HODL Waves - one of the clearest snapshots of market conviction.

Each coloured band represents the percentage of Bitcoin that last moved within a specific time frame.

The cooler the colour, the older the coins - with purple showing Bitcoin that hasn’t moved in 10+ years.

Today we’ll be focusing on long-term holders (LTHs) - defined as coins held for more than six months.

Here’s how the Bitcoin supply breakdown looks today compared to two weeks ago:

TL;DR: 69.55% of all Bitcoin has not moved in over six months. 🔒

That's up from 69.14% two weeks ago. Barely a shift.

The story here is rotation.

The 6-12 month cohort grew as recent buyers crossed the six-month threshold into long-term holder territory. The 1-2 year band ticked up slightly too.

Meanwhile the 3-5 year group shed 0.45% - the biggest mover.

But that supply didn't leave the system.

The 5-7 year band absorbed some of it, climbing 0.19%. The 7-10 year group held perfectly flat. And the 10+ year base pushed to 17.17% - the highest it's been.

This is what accumulation looks like. Coins aging across bands while the overall long-term base holds firm.

Bottom line: supply stays locked, conviction stays intact, and the foundation keeps strengthening. 💎

Bitcoin Sell Pressure Is Easing, But Whales Keep Dumping on Exchanges: CryptoQuant. Bitcoin is down 46% from its October peak—and the largest holders keep depositing to exchanges, presumably to sell, says CryptoQuant.

Bitcoin to zero? Google searches for the term hit record in U.S. as BTC price drops. Google Trends data shows the term hit a record high in the U.S. this month, though global interest has fallen since peaking in August.

US President Trump Raises Global Tariff Rate to 15%, Crypto Doesn't Budge. US President Donald Trump has raised his recently announced 10% global tariff rate to 15%, following a Supreme Court decision striking down his tariffs.

Spot bitcoin ETFs notch five straight weeks of outflows for first time since March 2025. U.S. spot bitcoin ETFs recorded about $316 million in net outflows during the holiday-shortened Presidents' Day trading week.

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The Lightning Network launched on Bitcoin mainnet in March 2018 after years of development. The layer-2 payment protocol enables instant, low-fee transactions by creating payment channels off the main blockchain. Today it holds over 5,000 BTC in public channel capacity and processes millions of transactions.

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