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- 🥜 The $100,000 Bitcoin Bet...
🥜 The $100,000 Bitcoin Bet...
PLUS: Ethereum Futures ETFs are here
GM to all 13,471 of you. Crypto Nutshell comin’ at you. 😈 🥜
We’re the crypto newsletter more exhilarating than joining a group of misfits to steal from a casino... 🎲🔐
Today, we’ll be going over:
😁 ETH futures ETFs are here
🤑 The $100,000 Bitcoin bet
💪 Short-term holders are back
💰 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 7:00am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
ETH FUTURES ETF ARE HERE 😁
BREAKING: Ethereum futures ETFs launch with underwhelming first day of trading
Total volumes for the newly launched Ethereum futures ETFs just barely reached $2 million.
Never before have we seen so many ETFs doing the same thing launch on the same day. A total of nine funds became available for trading on October 2nd.
The asset managers offering these funds include: Valkyrie, VanEck, ProShares, Bitwise, Kelly and VolShares. Also interestingly, 4 of these funds invest in a mix of Bitcoin and Ethereum futures whilst the other five stick to Ethereum futures.
The collective volume amounted to less than $2 million during the first few hours of trading. Eric stated that this is “about normal for a new ETF”.
BUT it’s significantly lower than the Bitcoin futures ETF that launched in 2021, which did $200 million in volume within it’s first 15 minutes of trading. 😲
Unprecedented day today with multiple ETFs all launching at same time. No clear winner has emerged, all of them were pretty average, lower than I would have predicted, but its a long run and remember, these hold futures (ETF investors much prefer physical to derivatives)
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas)
9:13 PM • Oct 2, 2023
So the volume and demand for these futures based ETFs weren’t as crazy as some were predicting them to be. 😒
BUT the approval of these ETFs by the SEC is still significant.
They pave the way for the approval of spot Ethereum and spot Bitcoin ETFs in the future.
And you know the spot Bitcoin ETF is what everyone is really looking forward to… 😎
TOGETHER WITH THE GOLD INVESTMENT LETTER 🪙
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THE $100,000 BITCOIN BET 🤑
The day that Bitcoin hits $100,000 will be a major milestone.
At this point, it almost seems predestined…
But could it happen in the next 6 months?
That seems insane. 😳
Not according to todays crypto expert - Adam Back.
Back believes that Bitcoin will hit $100,000 within 6 months. By the time of the next Halving. 🤯
He’s not just saying that either. He’s put his money where his mouth is. He’s bet 1 million Sats that Bitcoin hits $100,000 by the April Halving.
Alex isn’t just a random Joe Schmoe either. He’s a true Bitcoin OG. Not only does he have a PHD in Computer Science, he also invented HashCash, which is used in the Bitcoin mining process.
“We should already be over a hundred thousand apart from all this drama. So you know, I think there's a reasonable expectation that we could get to $100,000 before the halving and maybe go a lot higher after that.”
Adam has been around Bitcoin from the beginning and is now the CEO of Blockstream, a massive blockchain technology company.
Over the weekend, he joined Robert Breedlove and broke down his Bitcoin bet:
Back believes that Bitcoin is lower than it should be in comparison to previous cycles. This is because of factors such as, the pandemic, supply chain disruption, Ukraine / Russia war and the collapse of FTX, Luna, Celsius etc.
The Bitcoin 4 year cycle and Halving is much more well known. Instead of Bitcoin pumping 6-9 months after the Halving, investors may look to front-run it.
Historically, the price has picked up at this point in the cycle.
Combine all these and Alex is confident in his $100,000 Bitcoin bet.
Bottom Line: Although Adam is a crypto genius and his reasoning correct, a $100,000 Bitcoin in 6 months is unlikely.
It’s not out of the question, but that would required a ~257% gain in 6 months.
Although we think his prediction is a tad optimistic, he’s directionally correct.
P.S 1 million Sats at todays price = ~$280. Alex has put his money where his mouth is, but it’s not a huge amount of skin in the game. 😉
SHORT TERM HOLDERS ARE BACK 💪
Today we’ll be taking a look at the Realized Price of both short and long term holders.
Here’s how to interpret the chart:
🟠 The Realized Price: average purchase price of the entire supply
🔴 Short-Term Holder Realized Price: average purchase price of coins that were moved within the last 155-days
🔵 Long-Term Holder Realized Price: average purchase price of coins which have not moved within the last 155-days
🟪 Periods where the spot price falls below both short and long term realized price (if this happens we’re in trouble)
Short-term holders play an important role in the Bitcoin market. When they become profitable (spot price > realized price) they are less likely to sell, contributing to market stability. 💪
BUT when the spot price continues to dip below the realized price, that’s when we have major selloffs… 📉
As of today, the short-term realized price and spot price are pretty much equal. This means that on average, short-term holders are breaking even on their Bitcoin investments.
The last time the spot price was greater than the short-term realized price was back in early August…
This is definitely a chart to keep an eye one. Staying above this short-term holder realized price signals increased investor confidence (obviously as they aren’t holding at a loss…) and serves as market resilience (more likely to hold than panic sell when in profit).
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
WHAT WE’RE READING ✍️
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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
What is the all-time high price of XRP in USD?
A) $4.45
B) $2.89
C) $3.84
D) $5.65
Find out the answer at the bottom of “Meme Corner” below 😀
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: C) $3.84 🥳
XRP reached it’s all-time high price of $3.84 in January 2018.
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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.
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