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BREAKING: Bitcoin nears $75K as Iran deal hopes spark $400M short squeeze

Yesterday we wrote that the ceasefire had collapsed, Trump had ordered a naval blockade, and oil was spiking.

But we also said the floor underneath Bitcoin keeps holding.

And it held…

Bitcoin dropped to $70,500 on Sunday as the Hormuz blockade hit headlines. By Monday's close, it had ripped back to $73,400.

By Tuesday morning, it was pushing $74,500, up 5% in 24 hours.

This pattern has become the norm in 2026.

Bad news breaks over the weekend, thin liquidity amplifies the drop, and Monday's U.S. session reverses the damage.

It happened after the first Iran strikes. It happened after the ceasefire. And it just happened again.

Oil pulled back below $100 despite the blockade. Stocks rallied. And Bitcoin led the move, outperforming both the Nasdaq and the broader crypto market.

The catalyst this time appears to be growing confidence that Iran is running out of options.

With its economy dependent on oil exports and the U.S. Navy now blockading its most critical route, analysts believe Tehran is under serious pressure to negotiate.

The bounce triggered $425 million in short liquidations over 12 hours.

But not everyone is convinced this is the real thing…

Valerius Labs called it "a short squeeze running into overhead supply" rather than a genuine breakout.

The derivatives data backs that caution.

Bitcoin futures are trading at just a 2% annualised premium, well below the 4-8% range that signals healthy bullish demand.

But the buying pressure is real in other places.

Spot ETFs pulled in $615 million last Thursday and Friday. (More on these later)

Strategy bought another 13,927 BTC for $1 billion last week, with record STRC trading volume on Monday suggesting more purchases are coming.

Bitcoin is knocking on the door of $75,000. The bears keep getting burned. But the breakout still needs to prove itself. 🚀

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Zerohedge just flagged what might be the most important technical level in Bitcoin right now.

For those unfamiliar, Zerohedge is one of the largest independent finance and macro accounts in the world, founded by a group of Wall Street professionals.

Hundreds of thousands of traders, investors, and macro watchers follow them for fast, contrarian market analysis.

(They also post using the alias of Tyler Durden, from Fight Club)

And this week, they posted a chart that every Bitcoin investor needs to see:

2 months. That's how long Bitcoin has been holding the line.

While sentiment collapsed. While retail capitulated. While everyone was calling for lower lows.

But? The chart held.

And now it's pushed through the first major resistance level in months. $73,500.

The exact level that has capped every attempted bounce since the February crash.

Here's why this matters: Markets don't go up in straight lines. They grind. They consolidate. They build energy at key levels.

And when they finally break through? The move is usually fast and violent.

A confirmed breakout above $73,500 opens the door to $90,000.

That's roughly a 21% move from current levels. And it would officially end the downtrend that has defined this entire cycle since October's highs.

But this move isn’t happening in isolation.

It's happening at the exact moment macro conditions are screaming bullish.

Global liquidity is rising. M2 is expanding. ISM is accelerating.

Fundamentals are ahead of price. Institutions are positioning.

Every piece of the puzzle is lining up at the same time.

The only thing left is the breakout. 🗝️

Last week, Digital Asset Funds saw inflows of $1.1 billion.

That’s the largest weekly total we’ve seen since January!

Let’s break it down.

Bitcoin led with inflows of $872 million.

Ethereum followed closely with $196.5 million.

While Solana saw outflows of $2.5 million.

Interestingly, Short Bitcoin products also saw inflows of $20.2 million. (Investors betting on further downside)

Just goes to show how split market sentiment still is…

Regionally, the positive sentiment was solely focused on the US, which saw $1.065 billion in inflows.

Germany, Canada and Switzerland all saw inflows of $34.6m, $7.8m and $6.9m respectively.

So what’s caused this sudden surge in inflows?

Well if you remember back to last week, we had tentative ceasefire developments in Iran.

These headlines alongside the softer than expected CPI data, fuelled risk-on appetite from investors.

List of 'unsolvable' issues have shrunk, top White House crypto advisory says as momentum builds to pass legislation. President Donald Trump's top crypto advisor is sparking optimism in getting broader cryptocurrency legislation passed into law.

Crypto exchange Kraken targeted in extortion attempt; says no breach and no funds at risk. The firm said a criminal group is attempting to extort it over limited insider-related data access incidents affecting about 2,000 accounts.

Strategy Adds 13,927 Bitcoin, Boosts Holdings to 780,897. Strategy bought 13,927 Bitcoin for $1 billion in between April 6 and 12, funded through STRC at-the-market share sales.

Justin Sun Bashes Trump Family's World Liberty, Claims Investors Used as 'Personal ATM'. Tron founder Justin Sun, a major investor in the Trump-backed World Liberty Financial, lashed out at the company over the weekend.

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BAYC, launched by Yuga Labs in April 2021, became the cultural centrepiece of the NFT boom and was the first collection to cross $1 billion in cumulative secondary sales. Original mint price was 0.08 ETH, with floor prices eventually peaking above 150 ETH.

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