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BREAKING: Binance sees $3.64 billion in net outflows after reopening withdrawals following record hack

Friday we asked whether the Binance hack changes where you keep your crypto, and 77% of you said no.

40% of you already hold your own keys, 37% are leaving coins on exchanges, and the other 23% are moving some or all of it off.

Binance's own customers made much the same call when it switched withdrawals back on Sunday.

Bitcoin, Ether, USDT, USDC, BNB and XRP were in the first batch, and most of the exchange's 552 listed coins were still waiting their turn by late Sunday morning, US time.

Bitcoin sat near $77,500 through Saturday and Sunday, roughly where Friday's drop put it.

In the first nine and a half hours, customers took out $4.65 billion and put $1.01 billion back in, a net outflow of about $3.64 billion, or 2.1% of the $171 billion in its last reserve report.

That's a small number for an exchange that lost $6.3 billion on Thursday, and it stayed small because Binance refilled the hole before it reopened.

By Sunday it said it had replaced about 95% of the stolen coins with its own money, from its corporate treasury, part of its futures insurance fund and its SAFU emergency fund (the reserve it keeps for exactly this).

The last 5% is smaller tokens that take longer to buy in size.

Binance says customers' Bitcoin, Ether and eight other coins are now fully backed, in a reserve snapshot taken at midnight UTC on October 31.

Straight after the hack, CoinDesk had put the Ether backing near 94%.

That 100% is Binance's own figure, though…

The full proof that lets customers check their balances are counted is due early this week, and on Friday security firm CertiK said it needed more information to verify the $5 billion Binance says it holds in replacement coins.

The hackers also still have all 18,270 stolen Bitcoin, about $1.4 billion worth, sitting in addresses the FBI flagged on Saturday.

Binance's customers have their coins back, but the rest of us still share a market with $1.4 billion of stolen Bitcoin the hackers will want to cash out. 🚀

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^{𝘐𝘯 𝘮𝘢𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘯 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘪𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯, 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘴 𝘮𝘶𝘴𝘵 𝘳𝘦𝘭𝘺 𝘰𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘪𝘳 𝘰𝘸𝘯 𝘦𝘹𝘢𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘪𝘴𝘴𝘶𝘦𝘳 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘰𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨, 𝘪𝘯𝘤𝘭𝘶𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘳𝘪𝘴𝘬𝘴 𝘪𝘯𝘷𝘰𝘭𝘷𝘦𝘥. 𝘋𝘐𝘛 𝘈𝘨𝘛𝘦𝘤𝘩 𝘩𝘢𝘴 𝘧𝘪𝘭𝘦𝘥 𝘢 𝘍𝘰𝘳𝘮 𝘊 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘚𝘦𝘤𝘶𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘪𝘦𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘌𝘹𝘤𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦 𝘊𝘰𝘮𝘮𝘪𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘪𝘯 𝘤𝘰𝘯𝘯𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘪𝘵𝘴 𝘰𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳𝘪𝘯𝘨, 𝘢 𝘤𝘰𝘱𝘺 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘪𝘤𝘩 𝘮𝘢𝘺 𝘣𝘦 𝘰𝘣𝘵𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘥 𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦: https://bit.ly/4bzuWCi}

Raoul Pal has boiled crypto's problem down to three things, and crypto controls none of them.

He's a former Goldman Sachs macro trader and the founder of Real Vision.

Here's what he posted on Sunday:

A stronger dollar, higher rates and pricier oil all tighten financial conditions (how easy it is to borrow and spend), and in his framework that drains the liquidity markets run on.

Two of the three have moved hard against us since summer.

The dollar index closed Friday near 102, up from under 99 in August, and US crude finished the week at $104 a barrel, up from about $77.

The 10-year Treasury yield is the one that's started to ease, at 4.93%, still above August but down from 5.31% in early October.

His way out runs through Washington.

With Tuesday's midterms coming, he reads the White House as wanting all three lower, and he expects oil to come down through a resolution with Iran.

That part is his forecast, and nothing has been agreed yet…

For Bitcoin, at around $77,700 and down 8% in a month, it changes what's worth watching this week.

If oil and the dollar start to roll over, he expects the appetite for risk to come back with them.

If they don't, Bitcoin keeps pushing against the same headwinds, whatever the crypto headlines say.

Until the dollar and oil turn lower, Pal's read is that crypto stays stuck behind them. 🛑

Let's kick off the week with a look at the Bitcoin HODL Waves, one of the clearest snapshots of market conviction.

Each coloured band represents the percentage of Bitcoin that last moved within a specific time frame.

The warmer the colour, the younger the coins, with red showing Bitcoin that has been held for less than one day.

Today we're focusing on short-term holders (STHs), defined as coins held for less than six months.

Here's how the supply breakdown looks today compared to two weeks ago:

TL;DR: 20.22% of all Bitcoin is in the hands of short-term holders. 💎

Up from 20.18% two weeks ago, a rise of just 0.04%, or roughly 8,000 Bitcoin.

Coins moved in the past week jumped from 2.75% to 3.51% of supply, about 700,000 Bitcoin shifting on-chain in seven days.

That stretch took in the Binance hack, Friday's drop and Sunday's rush of withdrawals.

At the older end, the 1-3 month and 3-6 month bands lost 0.72% between them, as those coins either aged past six months or moved again.

About one in six short-term coins moved in the last week alone.

Three fortnights running the short-term share has grown, but this time a busy week of fresh coins only just outpaced the ones ageing out. 💎

A Nasdaq-listed company may sell $450 million bitcoin, citing Binance hack and quantum fears. Next Technology Holding authorized selling or borrowing against its roughly 5,833 bitcoin, a stake worth more than 50 times its own market value.

Traders are already placing leveraged bets on Anthropic’s IPO using crypto contracts. Trade.xyz's ANT contract on Hyperliquid has no shares behind it and fell about 20% in its first hour, with leverage of up to 10 times.

Hackers hijack a dozen DeFi websites, all registered with Name.com, and steal about $138,000. A drainer kit emptied the wallets of visitors to the hijacked front ends, and Name.com says 15 customer domains were affected.

Texas brothers sentenced to 15 years in prison for armed crypto robbery, kidnapping. Raymond and Isiah Garcia got 180 and 186 months for holding a Minnesota family for more than nine hours and taking over $8 million in crypto.

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Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: A number miners keep changing until the block's hash comes out low enough 🥳

There's no way to predict a winning hash, so miners keep swapping the nonce and rehashing the block until one lands below the network's target. All that guessing is the "work" in proof-of-work.

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