GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #955 bringin‘ the news… 🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more red-pilled than a cubicle worker learning his whole reality was just running code… 💊🕶️

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: Bitcoin and ether ETFs draw $2.6 billion in strongest inflow week since October, tripling volume

On Friday we asked where you stood on Bitcoin.

A clear 63% of you leaned bullish, with just 14% calling for a fade.

This time the crowd was right.

Bitcoin ran hard over the next three days, and by the weekend it was knocking on $80,000.

The move that broke a five-week range earlier this month kept climbing, up about 25% in a matter of days.

The one question hanging over all of it was who was actually buying.

Now we know…

Spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs pulled in $2.6 billion last week, their strongest stretch since October.

Bitcoin funds took $1.9 billion of that, Ether funds the rest, and combined trading volume more than tripled to $29 billion.

BlackRock's fund alone took half a billion dollars in a single day.

The break itself had run on a short squeeze, traders caught betting against the move and forced to buy it back.

A squeeze burns out fast, though, spent the moment the trapped sellers are all out.

This didn't burn out.

Bitcoin held near $78,000 straight through the weekend rather than handing the gains back, because this time there was real money sitting underneath it.

Let’s not get carried away though…

One big week doesn't undo the year.

Both ETF categories are still in the red for 2026 (Bitcoin funds down about $2.9 billion), and the pool of stablecoin cash that usually fuels a rally still hasn't started to grow.

So for the first time in weeks the run has a real buyer behind it, not just shorts scrambling to cover.

Whether that buyer strings the weeks together is the whole story now. 🚀

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Matt Hougan looked at the Treasury announcement that set this rally off and read it differently to everyone else.

Hougan is the Chief Investment Officer of Bitwise Asset Management and one of the sharpest voices on ETFs and institutional money.

Here's what he posted:

The Treasury said last week it will at least double its buybacks of 10 to 30 year debt, lifting the cap from $2 billion an operation to a minimum of $4 billion from September.

Officially that's a liquidity operation.

It also landed days after the 30-year yield touched 5.29%, its highest since 2007.

Buy back your own long bonds and you push those yields down.

On Hougan's read, the government is leaning on the long end instead of the spending that drove it up there.

The bill still gets paid either way, a little at a time, by whoever is sitting in cash and bonds. (The polite name for that is financial repression.)

There's no fresh money in it either, just a reshuffle of when the debt comes due, which is why he reads it as repression rather than easing.

The way out is owning something nobody can print more of.

Gold is the sober version of that trade, and Bitcoin is the one with the bigger engine, in both directions.

He also reckons the people buying this rally are working on a four-year view.

If the long end is being managed, owning a fixed-supply asset doesn't need the Fed to cut or the ETFs to string another good week together.

That's a reason to own Bitcoin that doesn't expire when the rally does. 🐴

Let’s kick off the week with a look at the Bitcoin HODL Waves, one of the clearest snapshots of market conviction.

Each coloured band represents the percentage of Bitcoin that last moved within a specific time frame.

The warmer the colour, the younger the coins, with red showing Bitcoin that has been held for less than one day.

Today we’re focusing on short-term holders (STHs), defined as coins held for less than six months.

Here’s how the supply breakdown looks today compared to two weeks ago:

TL;DR: 18.80% of all Bitcoin is in the hands of short-term holders. 💎

Up from 18.71% two weeks ago, a 0.09% rise and the second print of growth in a row.

Last print a rush of fresh coins hit the very front and re-armed this float after months of thinning.

This print that rush aged instead of repeating.

The 1-day-to-1-week band cooled from 2.74% to 2.53% with no new wave behind it, while the 1-3 month band swelled 0.56% to 5.53%, right where those coins land as they get older.

That makes 1-3 months the single biggest slice of the short-term float.

Underneath, the back kept draining, the 3-6 month cohort shedding 0.37% across the six-month line into long-term hands.

So the reactive supply matured rather than leaving.

The float that re-armed two weeks ago is still loaded, just older than it was. 💎

AI Has Made Bitcoin Software a Target—This Group Is Fighting Back. A volunteer group of about 20 developers is sweeping Bitcoin's wallets and apps for flaws that AI tools could find and exploit first.

Crypto card spending tops $1 billion as stablecoins move into everyday purchases. Tracked card volume more than tripled in a year, with USDC and USDT funding over 70% of spending on everyday purchases.

Fed study finds crypto investors driven by beliefs, easily swayed by returns. A Cleveland Fed study found crypto owners expect 22% annual returns versus 7% for others, with past gains prompting more buying.

DeFi lending protocol Term Finance loses an estimated $8.5 million to governance exploit. A governance attack drained about 68% of the vault product's value, slipping past a seven-day timelock and liquidity-provider veto.

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Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: 21 million 🥳

Bitcoin's code caps the total supply at 21 million coins, with new issuance halving roughly every four years until the cap is reached.

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