GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #973 bringin‘ the news… 🥜

We’re the crypto newsletter that’s more unbroken than a general-turned-slave asking a roaring arena if they’re not entertained… ⚔️🏟️

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: Fed raises rates by 25 basis points in first hike since July 2023

Wall Street spent a month certain the Fed would raise rates, and on Wednesday it did.

But Bitcoin barely moved…

The Federal Reserve lifted its benchmark a quarter-point to 3.75%-4%, its first rate hike in more than three years, on a unanimous vote.

Markets had priced it at better than 90%, so the decision itself was the least surprising part of the day.

Bitcoin whipsawed either side of $76,000 and settled roughly where it started, a hair above $75,900.

For two weeks this run has been governed by one number, the odds of this hike.

Oil over $100 kept inflation hot, hot inflation kept the hike on the table, and the pressure pinned Bitcoin under $77,000.

Now the number everyone was trading is a fact, and a priced-in fact moves nothing.

The projections went further than the hike.

Sixteen of the Fed’s eighteen policymakers now pencil in at least one more increase this year, with rates holding near 4.1% into 2027.

Kevin Warsh, who called the move “removing a dose of accommodation,” made clear this isn’t a one-off.

He credited a stronger economy, brushed past Trump’s calls for cuts, and pointed the committee at inflation.

So the ceiling that’s capped Bitcoin all month is now written into the Fed’s own plan.

The oil spike that pinned the price was always going to pass.

A central bank signalling that money stays tight through 2027 is a harder thing to trade around. 🚀

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Michael Saylor watched crypto’s biggest legislative push stall in the Senate this week, and told everyone to stop worrying about it.

He’s the Executive Chairman of Strategy, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin on earth.

Here’s what he posted:

The CLARITY Act was the big one, the market-structure bill that would’ve split crypto oversight cleanly between the SEC and the CFTC.

It failed its Senate vote, and the market read that as a real setback.

Saylor’s point is that the bill was never the thing that mattered.

The SEC, CFTC and Treasury can write crypto rules under laws already on the books, and he expects them to.

Banks are already being cleared to custody Bitcoin and lend against it, and GENIUS, the stablecoin law that did pass, covers the dollar-token side.

So the plumbing of adoption keeps getting laid whether or not Congress agrees on a framework.

That’s the reframe for anyone who sold the CLARITY headline.

A failed Senate vote is loud, and it’s easy to trade.

The rulemaking that actually moves institutional money is slow, unglamorous, and already underway.

Congress stalled the bill. The agencies never needed it to keep writing the rules. 🏛️

Time for a check in on Ethereum’s supply side dynamics.

To do that we’ll be focusing on the amount of Ethereum currently being staked.

Quick Note: Ethereum staking involves locking up ETH to support the blockchain’s security. In return, users earn rewards for staking.

43.33 million ETH is now locked in staking, up from 42.85 million two weeks ago.

Another record, but the pace keeps slowing.

Staking drew in 482,000 ETH this fortnight, down from the 550,000 added the period before and the 740,000 before that.

Three fortnights, three smaller waves, even as the pile kept printing highs.

So the lock-up hasn’t stalled, it’s just filling more gently as the loose supply thins.

That still pulls another 482,000 ETH off the market in two weeks, coins committed to earning yield rather than sitting ready to sell.

With more than a third of all Ethereum now staked, the float that can actually reach an exchange keeps shrinking even on a slow fortnight. 🔒

US House tax committee advances crypto tax overhaul in 38–5 vote. The bipartisan bill would exempt qualifying crypto fees from gain-or-loss calculations and rewrite tax rules for stablecoins, staking and lending.

Circle Launches Arc Mainnet With BlackRock, DTCC and Visa as Validators. The USDC issuer minted 10 billion ARC tokens on the new Layer 1, whose permissioned validator set includes BlackRock, DTCC and Visa.

Celsius sues BitMEX for $495 million over 2020 crash liquidations. The bankrupt lender’s estate is trying to recover 6,360 Bitcoin it says were wrongly liquidated during the March 2020 Covid crash.

Aave founder pitches ‘Uber path’ for DeFi after Clarity Act fails Senate vote. Stani Kulechov said DeFi should keep building through the regulatory limbo, comparing it to how Uber scaled before ridesharing rules caught up.

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Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: The waiting area of unconfirmed transactions before they enter a block 🥳

The mempool is where broadcast transactions wait before a miner or validator picks them into a block, so a crowded mempool is what pushes fees higher.

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.