🥜 The God Cycle

PLUS: ETFs hit 1 million

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GM to all you crypto nuts. Crypto Nutshell #478 headin’ to the moon… 👨‍🚀 🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more thrilling than an undercover cop infiltrating the world of illegal street racing... 🚗💨

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What we’ve cooked up for you today…

  • 🏦 Maximum conviction

  • 👼 The ‘God’ Cycle

  • 🤯 They did it - Bitcoin ETF milestone

  • 💰 And more…

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market data

Prices as at 4:05am ET

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MAXIMUM CONVICTION 🏦 

BREAKING: MicroStrategy announces plan to raise $42 billion to buy more bitcoin

Bitcoin

This is what maximum conviction looks like…

During their Q3 results presentation, MicroStrategy announced plans to raise an additional $42 billion of capital over the next 3 years.

And of course, that capital will be used to purchase more Bitcoin.

Phong Le, CEO of MicroStrategy had this to say in a press release:

“Today, we are announcing a strategic goal of raising $42 billion of capital over the next 3 years, comprised of $21 billion of equity and $21 billion of fixed income securities, which we refer to as our ‘21/21 Plan’”.

Phong Le, President and CEO of MicroStrategy

Continuing on, Le explains:

“As a Bitcoin Treasury Company, we plan to use the additional capital to buy more Bitcoin as a treasury reserve asset in a manner that will allow us to achieve higher BTC Yield.”

Phong Le, President and CEO of MicroStrategy

(Notice how it’s called the “21/21 Plan” - a not so subtle reference to Bitcoin’s supply cap of 21 million)

Saylor tweet

And since we’re on the topic of MicroStrategy, we might as well go over some of the highlights from their Q3 results:

Bitcoin Holdings

MicroStrategy currently holds 252,220 Bitcoin, acquired for a total cost of $9.9 billion or $39,266 per BTC.

During Q3, MicroStrategy acquired an additional 25,889 Bitcoin for ~$1.6 billion at an average price of $60,839 per BTC.

mstr1

At todays prices, MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings are worth ~$18 billion. Making them by far the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin in the world.

Asset Performance

Since adopting a Bitcoin strategy in August 2020, MicroStrategy has been the best performing asset on an annualised basis.

MicroStrategy has even outperformed Bitcoin over the last 4 years:

  • MicroStrategy: +105% per year

  • Bitcoin: +53% per year

mstr2

Year-to-date MicroStrategy stock has also increased by ~260%.

MSTR

Despite how glaringly obvious it is that MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin strategy is “working”…

Notorious Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff still isn’t convinced…

PS tweet

We don’t know about you Peter, but ~$9 billion in gains and a YTD stock increase of 260% don’t really sound like bankruptcy to us…

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THE ‘GOD’ CYCLE 👼

We are potentially in a ‘God Cycle’.

A cycle in which Bitcoin heads to multiple millions per coin.

It may sound insane, but if you break down the numbers, it’s a real possibility.

fred1

If you haven’t heard of him, Krueger’s a gun:

  • Worked on Wall Street for 10+ years 💼

  • Extremely successful entrepreneur - has exited 10 companies, with some exits in the tens of millions 💰

  • Studied mathematics, with a P.H.D from Stanford University 📚

In his latest update Fred broke down the math on how we may be in a God Cycle’. It all comes down to the adoption of Bitcoin by traditional finance (TradFi).

First, off Fred outlined how big TradFi is in the U.S:

“U.S TradFi has three main asset classes. Stocks: $46 trillion. Bonds: $46 trillion. Cash: $6 trillion. Total: $98 trillion.

Fred Krueger

For the sake of simplicity, let’s round that up to $100 trillion.

Right now, the only ‘real’ exposure TradFi has to Bitcoin is through the Bitcoin ETFs.

The ETFs currently hold ~1 million Bitcoin.

At ~$70,000, this means they have ~$70 billion worth of exposure to BTC.

“Let’s do some math: $70 billion divided by $100 trillion = 0.0007.

Fred Krueger

However, TradFi also has some exposure to Bitcoin through buying MicroStrategy:

“Add in $30 billion for MicroStrategy. That’s roughly one tenth of one percent.

Fred Krueger

All up, TradFi has $100 billion in exposure to Bitcoin:

  • $70 billion in the Bitcoin ETFs

  • $30 billion in MicroStrategy.

Compare this to the asset base of $100 trillion and TradFi is only 0.1% invested. 🤯

“Let’s pause a minute. 0.1%. It’s pretty clear this number could 10x.

Fred Krueger

TradFi could easily increase there exposure 10x, to a 1% exposure to Bitcoin.

This would equate to $1 trillion worth of investment.

“$1 trillion could flow into ETFs and proxies like MicroStrategy. At a 40x multiplier, that could move Bitcoin up to $40 trillion.

Fred Krueger

Bitcoin at a $40 trillion market cap would put each Bitcoin to $2 million per coin.

That’s why we are potentially in a ‘God Cycle’.

All it would take is TradFi increasing there exposure to 1%.

A very real possibility… 👀

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THEY DID IT 🤯

The Bitcoin ETFs just hit a HUGE milestone.

Collectively they now hold over 1 million Bitcoin! 🥳 

That is an absolutely insane achievement. And it only took them 10 months.

But that’s not all..

BlackRock also recorded it’s largest ever daily inflow with $872 million for the day.

Here’s yesterday’s breakdown:

  1. BlackRock IBIT: $872 million 🥇

  2. Fidelity FBTC: $12.6 million 🥈

  3. Grayscale BTC: $8 million 🥉

ETF flows

Bitcoin ETF flows

The last two days alone have seen a combined $1.76 billion in net inflows

NG Tweet

With Bitcoin hanging just below it’s all-time high

The Bitcoin ETFs vacuuming up a ridiculous amount of Bitcoin

And Saylor announcing a $42 billion capital raising plan…

How can you not be MEGA bullish for the short-term. 😎 

WC tweet
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CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜

Visa celebrates Coinbase partnership to offer instant crypto deposits. Payment giant Visa and crypto exchange Coinbase to accelerate crypto funding with new instant deposit feature.

Reddit offloads most of its Bitcoin, Ether holdings. The bulk of Reddit’s cryptocurrency sales came from Bitcoin and Ether holdings, with the company reporting that gains from transactions were insignificant.

Coinbase Shares Slump After Big Q3 Earnings Miss on 'Softer' Market Condition. The exchange also said it will buyback up to $1 billion of its shares, depending on the market conditions.

Riot Platforms cuts hash rate outlook, posts $154 million net loss in Q3 earnings. The miner produced 1,104 bitcoin during the quarter, in line with the 1,106 mined during the year-ago quarter.

WHAT WE’RE READING 📚

Want to get even smarter? Check these out.

p.s. all completely FREE (one click subscribe link)

  • Bitcoin Breakdown (link) - Twice weekly Bitcoin news

  • Crypto Pragmatist (link) - Actionable alpha 3x a week

  • The Hustle (link) - Get Smarter on Business and Tech

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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️

Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

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MEME CORNER 😂

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

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Trivia Answer: B) $4,721.07 🥳

According to Coinbase, Ethereum’s all-time high is $4,721.07

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.

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