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What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: Bitcoin falls on US PPI overshoot as 30-year bond yield hits new 19-year high

The market spent the week braced for one inflation number, and it lands later today.

Yesterday it got a warm-up, and the warm-up ran hot.

August producer prices, what goods cost before they reach the shelf, came in at 5.4% over the year, a touch above forecast.

The bond market did the reacting, with the 30-year Treasury yield jumping to 5.35%, its highest since 2007.

Bitcoin slid with it, dropping under $77,000 and handing back most of what was left of its run at $80,000.

The $78,300 line it had spent the week defending gave way, leaving it down almost 6% on the week.

Stocks fell alongside it, with the Nasdaq off nearly 1%, in a broad move out of risk that took Bitcoin with it.

Hot inflation means a Fed that won't cut and might hike, and a rates asset like Bitcoin feels that before anything else.

Odds of a hike at next week's meeting jumped past 71%, from 61% a day earlier, and oil added to the heat, with crude back over $100 a barrel on the same Iran tensions.

The bigger number still lands today.

Producer prices are only the wholesale read, while consumer prices are what households actually pay, and that is the one the Fed leans on hardest before it decides next week.

A soft print would ease the hike talk and hand Bitcoin back the line it just lost.

A hot one, stacked on yesterday's, turns the hike from a risk into the base case. 🚀

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Raoul Pal watched the same bond market everyone else did this week, and told his followers to stop staring at it.

He's a former Goldman Sachs macro trader and founder of Real Vision.

Here's what he posted:

This week has been one long flinch at the bond market.

The 30-year Treasury yield hit a 19-year high, Bitcoin lost $77,000, and every screen turned red at once.

Pal's read is that most of that is noise.

The number he's watching is quieter.

Company margins are widening while hiring stays flat.

That's businesses making more money out of fewer workers, the fingerprint of a productivity boom, not the overheating economy the bond market is busy pricing in.

Debasement and liquidity are what move hard assets over time, more than the exact week the Fed blinks.

It's why he keeps saying the next phase of crypto is about "far more than price."

In the same breath he pointed at yields, tokenization and 24/7 markets, the plumbing that keeps building while everyone argues about the next print.

For Bitcoin, that reframes this week's flush.

If the real economy is still compounding while the bond market panics, then this week's selloff says more about rates than about Bitcoin.

The bond market's mood shifted this week. Pal's case for Bitcoin didn't. 📡

Today we’ll be taking a look at the amount of Bitcoin available for sale on exchanges.

Here’s how to interpret this metric:

2.704 million BTC on exchanges. Down from 2.724 million two weeks ago.

Two weeks ago we asked whether the first refill in months was a blip or a turn.

Blip.

Roughly 20,000 coins left exchanges this fortnight, more than reversing the 14,000 that came back the print before, and dropping the balance under the 2.71 million it sat glued to for most of the summer.

That makes it the lowest reading in over two months.

Coins leave exchanges when holders move them into cold storage rather than lining them up to sell, so this is the bullish direction for the metric.

At today’s prices that’s about $1.6 billion of Bitcoin pulled off the shelf in a fortnight, during a stretch when the price held near $80,000.

The refill lasted exactly one print, and the long drain is back on. 👀

Bitcoin at $400K by 2030 Still 'Reasonable Target': Coinbase CEO. Brian Armstrong argues the bottom is in a year into the downturn, with the next halving roughly 18 months away.

Nasdaq to invest $100 million in Kraken parent Payward as firms expand partnership. Nasdaq Ventures is putting $100 million into Kraken's parent, deepening a partnership on tokenized-equity infrastructure.

Solana sees record 263K tokens issued in a single day. Memecoin platform Pump.fun accounted for most of the 263,000 new tokens as Solana set an all-time daily issuance high.

OKX brings OpenAI and Anthropic bets to Europe as pre-IPO trading grows. The exchange is offering up to 10x leverage on private-company valuations alongside 100 tokenized stocks and ETFs.

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Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: A rule change that isn't backward-compatible and can split the chain in two 🥳

A hard fork changes the protocol so older software rejects the new rules, and if the community splits it can create two separate chains, as Bitcoin Cash did from Bitcoin.

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