GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #959 bringin‘ the news… 🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more ahead of the curve than a teenager flooring a stainless-steel car to 88 just to rescue a fading family photo… 🕰️🚗

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: Bitcoin eyes $81K as Nvidia earnings beat boosts risk assets

Bitcoin is back above $80,000, and it got there without a single crypto headline doing the work.

On Wednesday a hotter-than-expected inflation print knocked it under $78,000.

Then Nvidia rescued it.

The chip giant posted $96.2 billion in quarterly revenue, beat forecasts by around $4 billion, and added more than $400 billion in market value in an afternoon.

Risk assets everywhere caught the updraft, and Bitcoin climbed with them.

The semiconductor trade has cut both ways this summer.

In July a chip selloff pulled Bitcoin down with it.

This week Nvidia's record quarter dragged it back up.

It's now back within reach of $82,000, the level that capped its last run higher.

Now the next move waits on a man who hasn't spoken yet.

Kevin Warsh gives his first Jackson Hole keynote as Fed chair this week, and the setting is unusual.

For the first time in four decades, the Fed built its flagship symposium around payments and financial innovation.

That's the closest the central bank's marquee event has come to crypto's own turf.

But the man delivering the keynote has leaned hawkish since taking the job, expected to talk tough on inflation, even as one economist still sees the Fed holding off on rate hikes until at least after November's midterms.

So the theme flatters crypto while the speaker might not.

It fell on an inflation print, climbed on a chip company, and now hangs on a Fed speech.

Not one of those is a crypto story.

Bitcoin once again trades on the same signals as every other risk asset, and this week those signals all point at Jackson Hole. 🚀

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Dylan LeClair wants you to remember exactly who was writing Bitcoin's obituary ten weeks ago.

LeClair is a widely followed on-chain analyst, known for his Bitcoin cycle and treasury-company research.

Here's what he posted:

Cast your mind back to June.

Bitcoin was deep in the red, and the loudest voices in the room were running the math on Strategy going to zero (Michael Saylor's company, the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin) and telling you institutional money had left for good.

Ten weeks later, none of it landed.

Strategy is still standing, the institutional bid is back, and Bitcoin has clawed its way off the floor.

The forced-seller spiral was the entire bear case.

Strategy holds its coins with borrowed money, so the fear was that one leg down forces a sale, that sale forces the next, and the whole stack unwinds.

That cascade never came, and the coins the panic-sellers did dump got soaked up by holders who aren't going anywhere.

We've tracked that treasury overhang fading for weeks, and it's the reason this bounce has a floor the June panic didn't.

The most confident, most-shared bear thesis tends to arrive at the price low, not to forecast the next one.

That's fear talking, not analysis.

The loudest doubters get loudest at exactly the wrong moment, and this run is the receipt. 🧾

Today we’ll be taking a look at the amount of Bitcoin available for sale on exchanges.

Here’s how to interpret this metric:

2.724 million BTC on exchanges. Up from 2.71 million two weeks ago.

The flat line finally moved, and it moved the wrong way.

For two prints the balance sat glued near 2.71 million, neither draining nor refilling.

This fortnight roughly 14,000 coins came back onto exchanges, nudging the total to 2.724 million, just above the 2.722 million level it rolled off a month ago.

Coins move onto exchanges when holders are getting ready to sell, so a build here is the bearish direction for this metric.

It’s a small tick, not a flood, and one print doesn’t undo a year-long drain from around 2.9 million last August.

But after months of coins only leaving, this is the first fortnight they came back.

Worth watching whether it’s a blip or a turn. 👀

AI Finds Critical Flaw in Bitcoin Lightning, Devs Issue Emergency Warning. Developers are preparing fixes after confirming that several AI-generated vulnerability reports about the payments network were accurate.

Connecticut's new lawsuit against Kalshi piles on to prediction market legal fight. Split rulings across state and federal courts so far suggest the prediction-market fight may ultimately reach the Supreme Court.

Bitcoin's 23% rally sends beaten-down miners soaring past AI stocks. Canaan, American Bitcoin and Cango jumped as much as 67% as renewed crypto demand lifted mining equities despite the industry's pivot to AI.

Ethena Foundation proposes fee switch for ENA token buybacks among other updates. The plan would direct protocol fees to buy locked ENA tokens and end future monthly investor unlocks to ease selling pressure.

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Trivia Answer: The value of assets deposited in a protocol 🥳

Total Value Locked tracks how much crypto users have supplied or staked to a protocol, a common gauge of a project's size and traction.

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.