- Crypto Nutshell
- Posts
- 🥜 2 most important charts in crypto
🥜 2 most important charts in crypto
PLUS: Australia BTC ETF
Sponsored by
GM to all 64,612 of you. Crypto Nutshell #345 feelin’ the love... 🫶🥜
We’re the crypto newsletter more gripping than surviving a plane crash on a deserted island... 🌴✈️
What we’ve cooked up for you today…
🤔 US Bitcoin ETF May recap
📈 The 2 most important charts
🌊 HODL waves
💰 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
U.S BITCOIN ETF MAY RECAP 🏦
BREAKING: U.S. Bitcoin ETFs purchased ~30,000 Bitcoin in May
The Bitcoin ETFs recorded another week of net inflows.
That’s four in a row now. 🔥
In total the Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $170 million last week.
(last week only had four trading days by the way)
With inflows of $170 million, the Bitcoin ETFs purchased a combined 2,730 BTC for the week.
Not quite enough to outpace the Bitcoin sold by miners (3,150 BTC)…
The main takeaway here is that inflows are back on the menu.
May was a HUGE improvement over April.
April saw net outflows of 6,074 BTC whereas May saw net inflows of 29,592 BTC.
And here’s why these inflows are such a big deal.
The chart below compares the price of Bitcoin to the cumulative purchasing of the ETFs.
Do you see how correlated they are…
They’re basically the same chart.
Also, perhaps going under the radar, Australia’s first Bitcoin ETF is set to begin trading tomorrow.
But don’t get your hopes up…
The Australian ETF market is way smaller than the US ETF market.
We’re talking $185 billion vs $8.1 trillion.
We’re not anticipating any large market movements from this launch.
But it is interesting to see the launch of Bitcoin ETFs taking place all around the world. 🌎
TOGETHER WITH BAY AREA TIMES 📰
With Bay Area Times, you will get graphics like these, so you quickly understand the news without having to read through long and boring paragraphs.
We explain the latest business, finance, and tech news with visuals and data.📊
All in one free newsletter that takes < 5 minutes to read. 🗞
Save time and become more informed today.👇
THE 2 MOST IMPORTANT CHARTS 📈
Billionaire Chamath Palihapitiya just dropped perhaps the 2 most important charts in all of crypto.
The main message?
Don’t get distracted. 🎯
Billionaire Chamath Palihapitiya is an O.G when it comes to Bitcoin.
He first began investing in Bitcoin when it was just $80 per coin. At one point, he owned over 5% of the entire Bitcoin supply. 😳
In his latest All-In podcast, he revealed that he’s been doing some price analysis on Bitcoin, post-halving.
The findings?
Following the halving, in every cycle, nothing much happens in the first 1-3 months.
Then, 12-18 months after the halving, we see huge price appreciation:
By taking the average of the last two cycles, here’s some forward looking projections for the price of Bitcoin:
1 month after halving = $73,110
3 months after halving = $77,621
6 months after halving = $99,643
9 months after halving = $238,623
12 months after halving = $362,997
18 months after halving = $1,104,000
An important caveat - because of the law of large numbers, each cycle we do see diminishing returns.
By taking the average trajectory of the previous 2 cycles, it’s likely these numbers are overshooting potential returns.
But then again, in previous cycles we didn’t have:
The spot Bitcoin ETFs
This level of institutional adoption
Political support from Republicans & Democrats
So who knows? 🤷
The main takeaway?
Although Bitcoin & crypto may be boring now, don’t get distracted.
The bulk of the gains crypto has to offer are still to come. \
Keep stacking, keep learning, stay focused.
Your future self will thank-you. 🙏
HODL WAVES 🌊
Today we’ll be taking a look at the classic Bitcoin HODL Waves.
Each coloured band shows the percentage of Bitcoin that last moved within that time period.
As the colours get cooler, the age bands get older (yellow being the oldest, representing coins last moved within the last 3 - 6 months).
This metric can also be used for long-term holders, but we’ll just be focusing on short-term holders today.
Here’s the breakdown:
24hr: 0.35%
1d - 1w: 2.80%
1w - 1m: 3.41%
1m - 3m: 11.79%
3m - 6m: 8.41%
That means that ~26.76% of the Bitcoin supply has moved within the last 6 months.
Which leaves ~73.24% of the Bitcoin supply NOT moving in 6+ months. 🤯
That’s an insane amount of the supply not moving. (especially at prices close to all-time highs…)
This metric can also be used to gauge where we are in the cycle.
As the price of Bitcoin increases, the amount of short-term holders also increases.
This is due to long-term holders deciding to take profits by selling their coins. (This makes those coins “young” again) 🤑
You can see in the chart above, it begins to spike as Bitcoin reaches new highs.
Although, each spike is smaller than the previous one…
Which means the amount of long-term holders increases with each cycle.
With such a limited amount of Bitcoin for sale, the price has no choice but to go up. 🚀
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
Bitcoin post-halving run may reach $130K by September 2025. Bitcoin’s post-halving bull run could see it hit at least $130,000 by September 2025 if it follows past market cycles, says Peter Brandt.
Crypto exchanges see $3B Ethereum exit since ETF approvals. Since the May 23 approval of Ethereum ETFs, over $3 billion in ETH has left exchanges, signaling a potential supply squeeze.
Congress to discuss potential benefits of RWA tokenization in June hearing. The House Financial Services Digital Assets Subcommittee will hold a hearing on June 5 to discuss real-world asset (RWA) tokenization.
Why Ethereum ETF day one inflow won’t be like Bitcoin. Spot Ether ETFs won’t see the same flows as Bitcoin ETFs on the first trading day as Ethereum is far more difficult to value.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
Want to get even smarter? Check these out.
p.s. all completely FREE (one click subscribe link)
CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)
What is the ticker for VanEck's Bitcoin ETF? |
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: B) HODL 🥳
VanEck’s Bitcoin ETF trades under the ticker $HODL - fully embracing crypto culture
GET IN FRONT OF 64,000+ CRYPTO INVESTORS
Advertise with Crypto Nutshell to get your product or brand in front of the crème de la crème of crypto investors. Crypto Nutshell readers are high-income earners who are always looking for unique or interesting offers.
HOW DID WE DO? 🤷
We read every comment submitted in this poll and love to hear what you guys have to say. 😁 (bonus points for suggestions 🍪)
What did you think of today's Newsletter?Don't worry, you won't hurt our feelings... 🥲 |
NUTCASE REVIEW OF THE DAY 🔍
DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.
Reply