GM to the winners club. Crypto Nutshell Pro #73 comin’ in with a bang… 💥🥜

If you’re new here, each Crypto Nutshell Pro is broken down into 2 sections:

The goal?

Help you understand exactly where we are in the cycle.

By now, you should have read through the following page: Read This First

(Click the button at the bottom of the page to continue the welcome series - there are 4 pages in total to read)

These give you a broad overview of the Crypto Nutshell Pro Portfolio and how we’re looking to play the second-half of this bull run.

And in case you missed last weeks Nutshell Pro, you can check that out here.

Now, let’s jump in…

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Q1 is officially over.

It was the worst quarter for Bitcoin since 2018 and the worst for the S&P 500 since 2022.

Bitcoin fell from $87,500 to $67,000. Oil surged 80%. The S&P lost $4.8 trillion.

Trump addressed the entire nation on Wednesday night.

The market's response? A collective shrug.

Nobody believes him anymore. And that might be the most important signal of all.

Let's get into it. 👇

The War Just Hit a Wall

Trump's primetime speech was supposed to be the moment. A clear signal. A definitive statement. Instead, it was a mess of contradictions.

He said the US would "hit Iran extremely hard over the next two to three weeks."

Then he said regime change was never the goal. He said he doesn't care about the Strait of Hormuz.

Then he said stock prices would "rapidly go up" once the conflict is over.

The market read straight through it.

The S&P didn't dump. It didn't rally. It barely moved.

Oil didn't come down.

Polymarket ceasefire odds for April actually fell to 24% after the speech. The odds of US ground forces entering Iran this month sit at 63%.

Wall Street is now openly calling Trump's bluff.

JP Morgan's global research team pointed out that the "TACO" trade (Trump Always Chickens Out) only works when Trump controls both sides.

With tariffs, he could threaten and then reverse.

With Iran, the other side has to agree. And so far, Iran hasn't blinked.

April 6th is the next critical date.

That's the deadline Trump set for Iran to negotiate before the US potentially deploys ground troops to seize Kharg Island, Iran's key energy site. If that deadline passes without resolution, expect another leg down in risk assets.

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed. The daily oil shortfall is roughly 11.4 million barrels per day. That is the biggest energy supply shock in history, larger than the total oil consumption of the UK, France, Germany, Spain, and Italy combined.

Even if the war ended tonight, the next three core PCE inflation prints will be ugly.

Oil's impact on inflation lags by two to three months. The Fed literally cannot act on good data until at least June, more realistically August at Jackson Hole.

The market is now pricing close to zero cuts for 2026, with some traders betting on a hike.

The short-term picture is genuinely dangerous.

Something Is Breaking Beneath the Surface

Here's the story almost nobody in crypto is paying attention to.

Over the past seven weeks, seven of the largest private credit managers in the world have frozen investor withdrawals.