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Together with

GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #979 bringin‘ the news… 🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more upside-down than a small town where the Christmas lights flicker every time something's close… 💡🙃

Stranger Things

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

  • 🏦 Bitget's $352 million hole

  • 🚦 Green light at 130

  • 📊 Not a blip

  • 💰 And more…

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market data

Prices as at 4:42am ET

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BITGET'S $352 MILLION HOLE 🏦

BREAKING: Bitget confirms $351M security breach, suspends withdrawals

An open steel safe with a trail of golden Bitcoin coins leading away under red emergency light

Around $352 million was drained out of Bitget's wallets, and the exchange is telling customers they won't lose a cent of it.

(Bitget is one of the larger offshore crypto exchanges, and BGB is its in-house token.)

Onchain trackers spotted the leak before Bitget said a word, with ether, stablecoins, AVAX and BNB draining into a single fresh address.

The attacker started swapping straight away, buying 7,111 ETH in six minutes and paying up to 5% over market to get it done.

CEO Gracy Chen then confirmed "unauthorized transfers from some of our hot wallets," and said cold storage is secure.

(Hot wallets sit online so an exchange can process withdrawals fast, which also makes them the easiest thing on the platform to rob.)

Withdrawals are paused while Bitget runs a security review, though deposits and trading are still open.

The "you're covered" promise rests on Bitget's User Protection Fund, which it says holds more than $464 million, comfortably more than the loss.

That cushion is real, and BGB was down only about 3% a few hours after the news broke.

For anyone with savings parked on Bitget, the paused withdrawals matter more than the fund.

ct

Until they're switched back on, every balance there is a number on a screen that can't be moved, however well covered it is.

This is the second breach north of $300 million this month, after the Liquid Network lost $320 million to a hack.

Thieves took $2.72 billion across the industry last year, a total that included Bybit's $1.4 billion loss in February 2025.

And BitMEX, which switched off trading on Wednesday, left after 11 years without losing customer funds to a hack.

Bitget looks able to absorb this one…

Its customers still found out that coins held on an exchange leave when the exchange says they can. 🚀

🔥 Where do you stand on Bitcoin right now?

Vote your gut and we'll tally the crowd on Monday, then score it against what the market actually did.

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GREEN LIGHT AT 130 🚦

Arthur Hayes has picked the number he thinks forces Washington's hand.

Hayes is the co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX, and one of crypto's most-read macro essayists.

Arthur Hayes

Arthur Hayes

Here's what he posted:

Arthur Hayes tweet on the MOVE Index and a bailout above 130
MOVE Index chart posted by Arthur Hayes, jumping to 104.58

The MOVE Index is the bond market's version of the VIX, tracking how hard traders expect US Treasury prices to swing over the next month.

His chart has it jumping almost 10% in a day to around 104.6, in the same week the 10-year yield pushed above 5%.

That's still below March's peak near 115, and about 25% short of Hayes's line at 130.

Treasuries are the collateral under almost everything, from bank balance sheets to the overnight loans that keep Wall Street funded, so wild swings there break things quickly.

When they break, the usual fix is for the Fed or the Treasury to step in, buying bonds or backstopping lenders with newly created money.

That's the "bailout of some sort" he's waiting for.

For Bitcoin, it plays out in two steps.

The first one hurts, because bond chaos drags down anything priced on cheap money, and Bitcoin went down with it this week.

The second is the one Hayes cares about, since the rescues in March 2020 and after Silicon Valley Bank both ended with more dollars chasing the same 21 million coins.

He's made the forced-printing call before, and the timing is always the hard part.

Bonds are rattled at 104, and Hayes reckons 130 is where the rescue money gets its green light. 🚦

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NOT A BLIP 📥

Today we'll be taking a look at the amount of Bitcoin available for sale on exchanges.

Here's how to interpret this metric:

  • Decreasing exchange balances: Bullish indicator as it signals a shift towards long-term holding 🐂

  • Increasing exchange balances: Bearish indicator as coins being transferred to exchanges are more likely to be sold 🐻

btc

2.727 million BTC on exchanges. Up from 2.704 million two weeks ago.

Two weeks ago the drain was back on, and we'd written off the prior refill as a blip.

This print, the coins came back.

Roughly 23,000 Bitcoin moved onto exchanges this fortnight, more than undoing the 20,000 that left the one before, and lifting the balance to its highest in over a month.

Coins move onto exchanges when holders line them up to sell rather than tuck them into cold storage, so this is the bearish direction for the metric.

At current prices that's about $1.8 billion of Bitcoin put back on the shelf, and it arrived in a fortnight when the price slid under $77,000.

The drain and the refill have traded off all summer.

This is the first time the coins came back while the price was falling. 📥

CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜

New York Wants to Ban Polymarket, Lawsuit Calls It 'Illegal Gambling Operation'. Attorney General Letitia James and Governor Kathy Hochul want Polymarket barred from the state and fined three times its earnings from the alleged conduct.

JPMorgan says bitcoin crossing $85,000 production cost could ease miner selling pressure. Bitcoin spent 280 days below JPMorgan's estimated $85,000 average cost to mine one coin before the recent rally, raising the risk of forced miner selling.

Sequans exits Bitcoin treasury strategy after selling remaining 314 BTC. The French chipmaker once held more than 3,200 BTC and used the sales to clear its convertible debt, joining at least nine firms to liquidate crypto treasuries in 2026.

UK’s largest banks complete world’s first interbank transactions using tokenized deposits. Seven lenders including Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds and NatWest moved tokenized sterling between each other for remortgage payments and a consumer purchase on a platform built by Quant.

WHAT WE’RE READING 📚

Want to get even smarter? Check these out.

p.s. all completely FREE (one click subscribe link)

  • Meerkat Explains (link) - Big topics, explained simply

  • Raremints (link) - Daily crypto news

  • Bitcoin Breakdown (link) - Daily Bitcoin news

  • Techpresso (link) - Daily tech news and insights

  • The Hustle (link) - Get Smarter on Business and Tech

  • Your Next Breakthrough (link) - Personal growth with Mark Manson

  • The Neuron (link) - AI trends and tools to keep you ahead

CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️

Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

MEME CORNER 😂

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

meme

Trivia Answer: Efficiently verifying that a transaction is included in a block 🥳

A Merkle tree hashes transactions in pairs up to a single root, so a node can prove one transaction belongs in a block without downloading them all.

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.

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