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PLUS: The Perfect Setup
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What we’ve cooked up for you today…
🏦 ETF weekly update
🤑 Here we go
💪 HODLer breakdown
💰 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 6:45am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
ETF WEEKLY UPDATE 🏦
BREAKING: Last week the Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows of $82.5 million
Last week was not the greatest for the Bitcoin ETFs…
In total, they experienced net outflows of $82.5 million for the week.
There’s 2 clear reasons for this:
Grayscale outflows haven’t stopped
Inflows into other issuers (besides BlackRock) have cooled down
On Wednesday, Grayscale saw their lowest outflow total since launch. ($17.5 million)
Even though analysts were calling the end of large outflows, they picked right back up on Thursday and Friday ($124.9m & $166.2m respectively)
With theses continued outflows, BlackRock has been inching closer and closer to overtaking Grayscale.
After last week, the gap is down to 40,660 Bitcoin.
BlackRock will likely flip Grayscale within the next 2 weeks.
HODL15Capital also posted an alternative way to think about the impact of the upcoming halving.
Give it a read below.
The halving is the equivalent of someone buying 450 BTC every single day and never selling.
Let that sink in…
(More on the halving in the next section)
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HERE WE GO 🤑
This is the perfect setup.
A demand shock + a supply shock.
That’s what next in store for Bitcoin, according to Anthony Pompliano.
In his latest interview, Pompliano broke down what to expect from the upcoming Bitcoin halving.
Firstly Pomp explained that this bull run will likely continue for the next 12 - 18 months.
“From here, we probably have another 12 - 18 months of price appreciation that will occur”
That’s simply due to the impact the halving will have on Bitcoin’s demand - supply dynamics.
The daily issuance of new Bitcoin entering the supply is set to be reduced from 900 BTC/day to 450 BTC/day.
“If you have demand stay the same, but now you have 50% less incoming daily supply. The price should re-adjust higher to accommodate everyone.”
Another benefit of the halving is that more and more people start talking about Bitcoin.
News channels like CNBC start regularly featuring updates on Bitcoin and cryptocurrency.
As you can expect, this leads to increased demand:
“You have this demand shock where more people are coming in wanting Bitcoin at the same time you have a supply shock where it’s getting cut in half. The last [halving] occurred when Bitcoin was $8,000, and it went to $69,000.”
The last halving saw Bitcoin rise from ~$8,000 all the way to $69,000.
(That’s an 8.625x increase)
But Pomp doesn’t think we’ll see gains of that magnitude this cycle:
“I don’t think we will see more than 8x,”
In case you aren’t convinced…
Just take a look at this chart.
The halving is a fun time for Bitcoin.
And it’s only ~4 days away…
HODLER BREAKDOWN 💪
Today we’ll be taking a look at the Long / Short-Term Holder Threshold.
Here’s how this metric works:
🔴 Short-Term Holders (STHs): coins that have been held for less than 155 days
🔵 Long-Term Holders (LTHs): coins that have been held for more than 155 days
🟥 Short-Term Holder Cost Basis: all coins purchased in this price range are STHs
🟦 Long-Term Holder Cost Basis: all coins purchased in this price range are LTHs
This metric is extremely powerful as we can see exactly what price STHs and LTHs purchased Bitcoin at. 🔎
The STH / LTH threshold is currently at 12th November 2023, back when Bitcoin was ~$37,000.
All coins purchased before this date are classified as LTHs.
All coins purchased after this date are classified as STHs.
Today there is currently 13,996,998 Bitcoin in the hands of LTHs. (71.11% of the circulating supply) 💪
Whereas the amount of coins held by STHs is only 3,409,949. (17.32% of the circulating supply)
(Quick note, exchange balances aren’t counted in this metric)
Taking a look at the chart above, notice how the amount of long-term holders has started to decline. That’s typical of bull markets.
As the price increases, long-term holders begin to lock in profits. As a result, the amount of short-term holders also increases.
Eventually the amount of short-term holders becomes significant and that’s how market tops form. (remember short-term holders are more price sensitive)
Don’t be fooled by the recent dip, long-term conviction in Bitcoin is still extremely high.
In fact, it’s basically still at an all-time high.
Do not be alarmed as this continues to decrease as the bull market progresses. That’s just the way it goes.
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
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IRS investigation chief expects uptick in crypto tax evasion this year. The IRS has grown more aggressive in prosecuting crypto tax crimes and is ready to deal with an expected influx of tax evasion.
Bitcoin is suddenly cool again for VCs. Venture capital funds, ever the lifeblood of crypto startups, have lately honed in on projects building in the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Crypto Owners a Growing Force Heading into 2024 Election. Nearly one out of five voters own crypto, making them a potentially powerful constituency in November.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
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______ is how the Ethereum network measures the computational effort required to execute transactions. |
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: C) Gas 🥳
Ethereum gas is what users pay to process transactions or use smart contracts on the Ethereum network.
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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.t
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