GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #867 slidin' on through…🛷🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more scorching than a desert standoff where the water ran out three scenes ago… 🏜️☀️

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: Bitcoin tops $79,000 as crypto rally gathers steam

Bitcoin just hit $79,000. Its highest level in 11 weeks. 🤯

The breakout came after Trump extended the Iran ceasefire indefinitely on Tuesday night, reversing his earlier statement that it would expire Wednesday.

He called Iran's government "seriously fractured" and said the extension stays until Tehran submits a unified proposal to end the war.

Markets reacted fast.

Bitcoin surged to a high of around $79,400, currently trading around $78,500 and up nearly 3% on the day.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both pushed to record highs.

Strategy jumped 10%, Circle 9%, and Coinbase 6%. This isn't just a crypto rally. It's broad-based risk-on.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs have now seen three straight weeks of net inflows, pulling in $1.8 billion.

The Fear & Greed Index has nearly tripled from 8 at the start of April to 33 today.

Sentiment is clearly starting to shift.

But the real setup is in the derivatives market.

K33 Research flagged that funding rates on Bitcoin futures have dropped to near three-year lows.

That means short sellers are piling in even as the price climbs higher. At the same time, open interest keeps rising.

That combination is fuel for a short squeeze.

If price pushes higher, those shorts get forced out, which drives the price up further. K33 called the breakout potential "strong" with "concentrated shorts providing ample fuel."

The next key level is $80,000. That's the short-term holder realised price, the average cost basis for newer buyers.

These holders tend to sell into strength, so expect resistance there.

And one note of caution...

CryptoQuant's Bull Score Index just entered neutral territory for the first time this bear market.

That sounds bullish, but the same thing happened briefly in March 2022 before the decline resumed.

The momentum is looking real. But so is the test ahead. 🚀

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Willy Woo just called out Wall Street. And he didn't need more than 3 three words to do it.

He thinks everyone is waaay to bullish on Bitcoin…

Jason "Going Parabolic" Williams posted a list of Bitcoin price targets from some of the most respected names in finance.

The Bitcoin price predictions for the end of 2026 looked like this:

13 different institutional voices. Not 1 target below $126,000.

Most ranging between $150,000 and $500,000.

It's the most bullish collective forecast the industry has ever put on paper.

But Willy Woo's response?

Now, before you dismiss that, understand who Willy Woo is.

He's one of the most respected Bitcoin analysts in the world. He coined the term "on-chain metrics."

He correctly called Bitcoin's path to $55,000 in 2021 using his Supply Shock model.

He has over a million followers and runs The Bitcoin Forecast newsletter that hedge funds and institutional allocators read religiously.

When Woo says every institutional prediction is too bullish, he's not saying Bitcoin is going to zero. He's saying the entire room is crowded on the same side of the trade.

And that's where it gets interesting.

History has shown time and time again that when everyone is positioned bullishly, markets often surprise to the downside. But the flip side is also true.

When everyone is positioned bearishly, as retail clearly is right now with fear and greed at extreme fear for weeks, markets tend to surprise to the upside.

So what does Woo's disagreement actually mean?

It could mean Bitcoin ends 2026 below $126,000. It could mean the institutions are still anchoring to linear models that will miss a parabolic move.

Or it could mean that Woo, with his on-chain data, is seeing something the traditional analysts aren't.

One thing is clear. When Wall Street is unanimously predicting $150,000 to $500,000 Bitcoin and the most respected on-chain analyst is saying "too bullish," somebody is going to be very wrong.

And as always, the truth is probably somewhere the consensus isn't even looking.

But what do you think?

Today we’ll be checking in on the amount of Ethereum available for sale on exchanges.

Here’s how to interpret this metric:

Another record low. Again.

Only 14.81 million ETH remain on exchanges - 12.27% of total supply. The lowest reading in Ethereum's history.

Since January, 1,972,477 ETH has been withdrawn. Nearly 2 million ETH removed from the sellable float in 2026 - and every single reporting period this year has shown a decline.

That consistency is what separates this from noise.

Individual withdrawals can be random. A whale moves coins. A protocol rebalances. But when the same metric drops in the same direction, every two weeks, for months on end - that's a big deal.

And it's accelerating. Two weeks ago the YTD withdrawal figure was 1.75 million. Now it's knocking on 2 million. The outflow is getting faster, not slower.

Meanwhile, staking keeps absorbing supply from the other side. Exchange balances shrinking. Staked balances growing.

12.27% of supply left on exchanges. Think about what happens when sentiment eventually shifts and new demand arrives into a market this drained of available supply. 🐳

American Bitcoin Shares Spike After Trump-Backed Firm Activates 11K BTC Miners. The Trump-backed miner expanded its fleet and the stock jumped as it pushed harder on industrial-scale BTC accumulation.

UK FCA carries out first crackdown on illegal peer-to-peer crypto trading. The UK regulator says it raided eight London sites in its first coordinated sweep against illegal P2P crypto trading.

Singapore’s OCBC launches tokenized gold fund on Ethereum and Solana. One of Singapore’s biggest banks is pushing deeper into tokenized RWAs with a gold product aimed at institutional and high-net-worth buyers.

The $292 million Kelp DAO exploit shows why crypto bridges are still one of the industry's weakest links. The problem is structural and as long as bridges depend on complex systems with shared infrastructure and hidden trust assumptions, they will remain vulnerable.

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Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: Celsius 🥳

Celsius halted all withdrawals on June 12, 2022, trapping billions in customer funds. The platform had been making risky bets with depositor assets, including leveraged DeFi strategies and illiquid staking positions that it couldn't unwind when the market turned.

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.