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GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #761 monitorin’ the signals… 📻🥜

We’re the crypto newsletter that’s more adventurous than a kid discovering a treasure map that could change everything… 🗺️🏴‍☠️

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: Texas Buys $5M in BTC ETF as States Edge Toward First Government Crypto Reserves

Texas just pulled the trigger.

The state has started building its Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve with a $5 million purchase of BlackRock’s IBIT ETF, the first step toward a $10 million allocation.

Senator Charles Schwertner was blunt about the logic:

For now, the position sits alongside:

A spokesman for the comptroller called IBIT a “placeholder for the first direct state funds investment” in Bitcoin.

The goal is still direct self custody once the legal and custody framework is ready.

Texas also did something else: it bought the dip.

Texas Blockchain Council president Lee Bratcher confirmed the purchase went through on November 20th around $87K, calling it the reserve’s first allocation and the first Bitcoin buy by a US state.

It’s not huge in dollar terms…

But it is a precedent.

One US state has now:

It now gives every other state a ready-made playbook for treating Bitcoin as a treasury asset, not just a speculative trade. 🚀

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Most people panic-sell bottoms.

Larry Lepard calls them out.

If you don’t know Larry: he’s a veteran macro investor, gold fund manager, and one of the earliest traditional-finance guys to publicly embrace Bitcoin as the ultimate monetary debasement hedge.

He’s been screaming the macro truth long before Wall Street caught on.

And this weekend, as crypto puked again, he dropped one of his clearest threads yet:

People selling here are making a tragic mistake.

Why?

Lepard breaks down the 3 big fears driving the panic:

His response?

None of it matters when the macro freight train is about to hit. Because for Lepard, the only thing that drives Bitcoin long-term is this:

Massive monetary debasement is inevitable - and very close.

He points to Dan Oliver’s famous chart on Fed policy:

Every single time the Fed tries to slow the exponential growth of money… They get forced right back into printing.

Every. Single. Time.

And according to Lepard? We’re at that point again.

This is the setup Bitcoin was built for. But here’s the part most people ignore:

Bitcoin’s upside comes in bursts. If you miss the burst, you miss the cycle.

Lepard reminds everyone:

Lepard’s message is simple:

Bitcoin is the most asymmetric upside bet on the planet.

Selling now - on fear, indicators, or headlines - is how investors blow generational trades.

You don’t sell the shakeout.

You embrace it.

Because when Bitcoin moves… it moves without warning.

And without mercy for anyone who sold too early.

The God candles don’t wait for you. 🕯️

Let’s check in on one of our favourite metrics: Bitcoin’s supply last active 1+ years ago.

It’s a simple but powerful signal - tracking how much BTC has remained untouched as a percentage of total circulating supply.

Here’s the logic:

Here’s the latest supply breakdown vs. two weeks ago:

Even with this correction, almost 59% of all Bitcoin has not moved in a year.

Yes, that is down a bit from two weeks ago, and we can see it in the mid-range cohorts:

That is not a picture of long-term holders abandoning ship. It is a classic rotation:

Older mid-cycle holders are taking profit or de-risking, while the very old supply stays glued in place and more coins age into that 5+ year bracket.

When that much supply is locked away, it does not take a huge wave of new demand to flip the script. 🚀

Inside the JPMorgan boycott drama defending Bitcoin treasuries being kicked off major indexes. MSCI consultation paper and JPMorgan's positioning resulting in some major fallout across social media to defend DATs like Strategy.

Japanese watchdog to require exchanges to hold liability reserves. According to a Nikkei report, Japan’s Financial Services Agency may soon require crypto companies to hold reserves to compensate users affected by security breaches.

Why Bitcoin Is Underperforming Equities Despite Bullish Catalysts. Gains in AI-fueled stocks and heavy crypto leverage have widened the gap between bitcoin and equities.

CFTC Acting Chair Pham seeks CEOs for innovation council amid expanding crypto oversight. The CFTC's Acting Chair, Caroline Pham, is seeking chief executives to bolster a newly formed CEO Innovation Council.

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Trivia Answer: Shanghai 🥳

The Shanghai upgrade finally allowed validators to withdraw ETH from the staking contract. 🔓

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.