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- 🥜 Tsunami coming for Bitcoin in October
🥜 Tsunami coming for Bitcoin in October
PLUS: Grayscale claps the SEC
GM. Crypto Nutshell comin’ at ya! 🫶 🥜
The crypto newsletter that won't derail you like a chemistry teacher turned meth manufacturer... 🧪🚐
Today, we’ll discuss:
Grayscale pushed the SEC for ETF approval 🫷
Tsunami of capital coming for Bitcoin 🌊
Massive exchange outflows 🏃♂️
And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 7:55am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
GRAYSCALE URGES SEC FOR ETF APPROVAL 👍
JUST IN: Grayscale asks SEC to quickly approve its spot Bitcoin ETF
You’ve surely heard by now that Grayscale recently won a legal case against the SEC. The court ruled that the SEC had denied Grayscale’s Bitcoin ETF proposal without providing a clear rationale. The main argument being that the SEC had already approved futures based Bitcoin ETFs.
Top executives from Grayscale have now come out and requested to meet with the SEC to discuss the planned spot Bitcoin ETF.
The legal team sent a letter (linked here if you’re interested in reading the whole thing), this is what they had to say:
“We believe the commission should conclude that there are no grounds for treating the trust differently from ETPs [exchange-traded products] that invest in Bitcoin futures contracts. If any other reason could be offered in attempting to differentiate spot Bitcoin ETPs from Bitcoin futures ETPs…we are confident that it would have surfaced by now.”
Grayscale is really giving it to the SEC.
But wait. It gets better.
The letter concludes with:
“We hope you will agree that the best use of resources now is for the [SEC] to issue an order approving.”
*mic drop*
Each day we inch closer and closer to the long awaited approval.
Not long to go now.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚️
Want to get even smarter in Crypto before the bull run? Check these out.
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TSUNAMI OF CAPITAL COMING FOR BTC 🌊
Eric Balchunas believes that a spot Bitcoin ETF is going to bring in $150 Billion dollars worth of new capital to Bitcoin in its first 12 months.
Eric believes there is a 75% chance of approval in 2023, with his most likely date being the middle of October. 😳
If you don’t know who Eric Balchunas is, he’s the senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg Intelligence. He’s probably the no.1 expert in the world and is the most well connected when it comes to ETF’s.
Today he did an interview and revealed some real juice, here’s the squeeze:
Believes mid-October is the most likely date this year for a spot-Bitcoin ETF approval
Predicts that the ETF will bring in $150 billion dollars worth of capital in its first 12 months
If NOT approved in 2023, pegs the odds at 95% approval chance in 2024
Now $150 billion in the first 12 months is colossal.
To put this into perspective, if you combine all the Bitcoin currently held on exchanges, it totals ~1.85 million BTC. This equals ~$47.5 billion USD.
This mean Eric expects, in the first 12 months, the ETF will usher in over 3x the amount of capital than all the exchanges hold altogether! Insane. 🚀
“When I come up with the $150 billion, here's the math. One: that's about how much gold ETFs have. Two: if you take advisors and wealth managers, they have $30 trillion dollars that they run for the rich Boomers of America. If only 0.5% of that comes over that is $150 billion. So that's I think, pretty fair.”
Another way of framing this is looking at Saylor, who has brought in ~$4 billion to Bitcoin.
Eric is predicting a spot bitcoin ETF will add 37 more Michael Saylor's to the roster.
visual representation of how many Saylor’s a spot bitcoin ETF will bring.
No matter how you cut it, despite the current lull, big things are coming.
MASSIVE EXCHANGE OUTFLOWS 📊
Yesterday we looked at the Bitcoin Percent Supply on Exchanges and noticed that it’s been declining ever since March 2020 (currently at a 5 year low).
Today we’ll be digging a little deeper and checking in on the daily Exchange Net Position Change. Both of these charts are in USD values for comparisons sake.
🟢 indicates net inflows into exchanges
🔴 indicates net outflows from exchanges
The charts are kinda crazy right?
Yesterday - we saw $580 million in Bitcoin leave exchanges. 🤯
And don’t think it’s any different for Ethereum. In fact it’s even crazier.
Yesterday we saw $1 billion in Ether leave exchanges 😱
That’s a whole lot of Bitcoin and Ether leaving exchanges.
Large amounts of crypto leaving exchanges is often seen as a bullish signal. Investors generally only withdraw from exchanges when they want to hold their coins themselves in cold wallets. Makes sense.
To us, this looks like a large amount of long term holders accumulating for a Bitcoin price rally, with outflows continuing throughout this current lull.
Bottom line: All indicators point towards investors accumulating & preparing for a leg upwards. This is unsurprising. No one wants to sell right before an imminent spot Bitcoin ETF approval & the long awaited 2024 Bitcoin halving.
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
What percentage of the Bitcoin supply is currently held on exchanges? (we mentioned this yesterday btw)
A) 11.67%
B) 23.52%
C) 10.58%
D) 18.49%
Find out the answer at the bottom of “Meme Corner” below 😀
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: A) 11.67% 🥳
According to data from Glassnode, 11.67% of the circulating Bitcoin supply is currently on exchanges. This is down from 17.56% in March 2020.
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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.
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