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- 🥜 Tsunami is here
🥜 Tsunami is here
PLUS: Here comes retail
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We’re the crypto newsletter that's more unpredictable than a chemistry teacher turned criminal mastermind... ⚗️🔬
What we’ve cooked up for you today…
🌊 Here comes retail
😱 Face-melting FOMO is coming
💪 HODLer breakdown
💰 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 5:05am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
HERE COMES THE TSUNAMI 🌊
BREAKING: Retail interest is returning as Bitcoin crosses $64,000
Bitcoin’s price has been on a rampage.
Rising from $51,000 all the way to $65,000 over the last 7 days.
Analyst Fred Kruger pointed out there’s been a sudden uptick in search queries for “Bitcoin”.
A clear sign that retail interest is returning.
With Bitcoin’s recent price action, Krueger is also calling for Bitcoin to hit a new all time high this week…
Which doesn’t seem crazy at all.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is only ~$4,000 away from breaking a new all-time high.
Nuts. 🥜
Bitcoin has never broken it’s previous all-time high before the halving.
That would be unprecedented…
But it looks like it’s about to happen (if things get real crazy it may have already happened by the time this newsletter is out 😂)
The ETFs have completely changed the game.
If you’re reading this, you’re in the right place, at the right time. 😎
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FACE-MELTING FOMO IS COMING 😱
Bitcoin will never drop below $49,000 ever again.
At least according to PlanB…
For those of you who don’t know PlanB, he is arguably the most famous on-chain Bitcoin analyst.
With over 1.9 million followers on Twitter, he is most well known for his Stock-to-flow model and spookily accurate price predictions.
Let’s breakdown some of the highlights from his latest market update.
The next market top will be in 2025
February marked Bitcoin’s largest monthly increase in dollar terms at an increase of ~$20,000. That’s actually nuts.
This price increase puts Bitcoin back on track for PlanB’s stock-to-flow model.
The stock-to-flow model received quite a lot of criticism as it was on the downside for all of 2022.
Essentially people believed the model was broken.
But PlanB claims that it’s back.
“Always after the price has been below the model, it has gone above the model. And FAR above the model sometimes. That’s what I’m hoping for, in fact that’s what i’m expecting. We’re going to break the stock-to-flow model on the upside after the halving”
From this model, PlanB expects a market top in 2025:
“I don’t expect a top in this year [2024], I expect a top in 2025.”
Face-melting FOMO is coming
We spoke about this chart in detail the other day.
Basically, the bull run is officially here. 🐂
And PlanB broke down exactly what we can expect going forward:
“Face-melting FOMO, extreme price pumps and also multiple -30% dips.”
It can be an extremely fun but also scary time.
PlanB recommends you sit back, relax and enjoy the ride.
Oh and don’t panic at the first -30% dip. Those will happen, but they’re nothing to worry about.
Bitcoin will never drop below $49,000
This prediction is based on Bitcoin’s realized price.
Realized price is the value of all Bitcoins at the price they were last moved divided by the circulating supply.
🔴 Bitcoin’s current price: $65,000
⚫️ Realized price: $25,000
🔵 2 year realized price: $37,000
(cyan) 5 month realized price: $49,000
The signature of a bull market is Bitcoin being above all of these Realized price variations - which it is.
But PlanB also mentions that in a bull market, Bitcoin will never dip below the 5 month realized price:
“In a bull market, we will never drop below that 5 month realized price. Right now it’s at $49,000. So maybe that means we are never going below $49,000 ever again.”
Strap in, this rocket ship is about to take-off. 🚀
HODLER BREAKDOWN 💪
Today we’ll be taking a look at the Long / Short-Term Holder Threshold.
Here’s how this metric works:
🔴 Short-Term Holders (STHs): coins that have been held for less than 155 days
🔵 Long-Term Holders (LTHs): coins that have been held for more than 155 days
🟥 Short-Term Holder Cost Basis: all coins purchased in this price range are STHs
🟦 Long-Term Holder Cost Basis: all coins purchased in this price range are LTHs
This metric is extremely powerful as we can see exactly what price STHs and LTHs purchased Bitcoin at. 🔎
The STH / LTH threshold is currently at 1st October 2023, back when Bitcoin was ~$28,000. (isn’t it crazy that it’s more than doubled since than)
All coins purchased before this date are classified as LTHs.
All coins purchased after this date are classified as STHs.
Today there is currently 14,502,749 Bitcoin in the hands of LTHs. (73.83% of the circulating supply) 💪
Whereas the amount of coins held by STHs is only 2,875,449. (14.64% of the circulating supply)
Since the launch of the ETFs there’s been an increase in the amount of STHs and a decrease in the amount of LTHs.
Why?
This simple answer is Grayscale’s considerable outflows.
Currently Grayscale has sold 198,543 Bitcoin.
Meaning 198,543 Bitcoin have recently become “young” again.
Plus with Bitcoin’s recent price surge, some investors are bound to take profits.
Regardless, zoom out a little and you’ll see long-term conviction in Bitcoin is still extremely high.
In fact, it’s basically still at an all-time high.😎
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
Grayscale CEO says there is 'insatiable demand' for spot Bitcoin ETFs. Sonnenshein said spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen "tremendous" flows and demand since their launch in January.
Bitcoin daily withdrawals challenge records as $2B leaves exchanges. Bitcoin exchange withdrawals in U.S. dollars are unlike anything seen for years, new BTC balance data shows.
Bitcoin ETFs now hold nearly 4% of all bitcoin — and they’re not slowing down. Bitcoin has new buyers in the form of some of Wall Street’s biggest players, and they’re gathering some enormous treasuries.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
Want to get even smarter? Check these out.
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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)
When was Coinbase founded? |
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: D) 2012 🥳
Co-founders Brian Armstrong and Fred Ehrsam founded Coinbase in 2012 back when Bitcoin was worth ~$6.
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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.
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