GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #748 followin’ the north star… ⭐🥜

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What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: JPMorgan sees bitcoin price reaching about $170,000 within the next 6 to 12 months

Two of the biggest names in finance just dropped fresh Bitcoin forecasts - and they couldn’t be more different.

JPMorgan sees a near-term surge, while ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood just trimmed her ultra-bullish long-term view.

Let’s start with JPMorgan.

The bank now values Bitcoin at roughly $170,000 based on its gold-adjusted fair value model.

Analysts say the recent leverage washout - including October’s record $19B liquidation cascade - is “likely behind us.”

With derivatives reset and gold volatility rising, they believe Bitcoin looks increasingly attractive on a risk-adjusted basis.

If BTC were to match just two-thirds of gold’s private investment base, its market cap would need to climb 67% - putting Bitcoin near that $170K mark within six to twelve months.

In other words, JPMorgan thinks the worst of the pain is over and the next leg higher could already be loading.

Cathie Wood, meanwhile, is playing the long game.

She still sees Bitcoin dominating the next decade - but with one caveat.

Stablecoins are moving faster than expected, especially across emerging markets.

They’re becoming the “digital dollars” of the world - a role Wood once thought Bitcoin would fill.

“Stablecoins are usurping part of the role we thought Bitcoin would play” she said.

As a result, ARK has cut its 2030 bull case from $1.5M to $1.2M per Bitcoin.

Still, Wood insists Bitcoin’s core thesis remains intact: it’s “digital gold” not digital cash - and institutions are only just getting started.

So where does that leave us?

JPMorgan is calling for $170K by mid-2026.

Cathie Wood is calling for $1.2M by 2030.

Short term or long term - both see the same direction of travel. 🚀

What Our Readers Think 🧠

Yesterday we asked where you see Bitcoin closing out 2025 - and the results are in:

A huge 95.2% of readers believe Bitcoin will finish the year above $100,000.

But the crowd is split between two main camps:

Only 4.8% think Bitcoin will end the year back below six figures, while 15.7% are aiming higher with calls for above $150K. 🚀

Wall Street can debate models all day, but our readers are sending a pretty clear message:

Bitcoin might wobble, but most of you still see it closing 2025 strong.

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Eric Trump - son of the President and Executive Vice President of the Trump Organization - just dropped one of the most bullish takes we’ve heard all year.

In his latest interview with NYNEXT, he said:

But here’s where it gets interesting - he wasn’t just talking the talk.

He actually knows the macro:

That’s not a guess - that’s real understanding.

He’s connecting QE, liquidity, & Bitcoin — the same forces every top macro analyst in the world watches.

So when the President’s son is out here referencing M2 and easing cycles, you know he’s not just a spectator.

He gets it.

If he’s right, and the floodgates of liquidity are about to open…

Q4 won’t just be good - it could be unbelievable. 🎆

Today we’ll be taking a look at the amount of Bitcoin available for sale on exchanges.

Here’s how to interpret this metric:

Just 2,850,852 BTC now sit on exchanges - 14.29% of the total supply.

Since January, another 228,203 BTC (worth ~$24.5 billion) has been pulled off the market.

We haven’t seen exchange balances this low since 2019, when Bitcoin traded near $8,000.

And just like we saw with Ethereum yesterday, there’s no surge in BTC deposits.

Even through the current correction, balances are trending downwards.

That says it all. This isn’t panic - it’s OG whales taking profits, not dumping their bags. 🐳

Solana ETFs are outperforming Bitcoin: Is SOL siphoning BTC liquidity? A week of outflows from Bitcoin/Ethereum funds contrasts with steady Solana inflows. What changes if the pattern persists?

Ray Dalio warns Fed is stimulating the economy into a bubble. Economist and hedge fund veteran Ray Dalio warns that the Federal Reserve's easing of monetary policy is dangerous amid high asset prices and rising debt.

Bitcoin, MSTR, COIN, IREN Headed Lower as U.S. Stocks Sink. Continuing a steep slide begun in July, Michael Saylor's Strategy has now turned lower on a year-over-year basis.

Robinhood cautious on adopting corporate bitcoin treasury: 'Is it the best use of our capital?' Robinhood’s crypto revenue rose 300% to $268 million in the third quarter, helping drive higher overall revenues of $1.27 billion.

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Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: Increased selling pressure 🥳

When exchange reserves climb, it often means traders are sending coins to exchanges — a sign of potential sell pressure. 📉

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.