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PLUS: Germany finally done
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GM to all you crypto nuts. Crypto Nutshell #384 feelin’ the rays... 🌱🥜
We’re the crypto newsletter that's more strategic than building a winning baseball team on a budget... ⚾💸
What we’ve cooked up for you today…
🇩🇪 Is it finally over?
🎯 The future is bright
📉 Bitcoin adoption decreasing?
💰 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 2:25am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
IS IT FINALLY OVER? 🇩🇪
BREAKING: Germany runs out of Bitcoin after 23 days of selling
The end.
After 23 days of continuous selling from the German government, it’s over.
In it’s final transaction, the German government transferred 3,846.05 Bitcoin to Flow Traders and 139Po. (worth ~$223.81 million)
Germany started June with 50,000 Bitcoin which they confiscated earlier this year from film piracy website Movie2k.
At today’s prices, that 50,000 Bitcoin would be worth $2.9 billion.
But at the time of confiscation the Bitcoin holdings were worth ~$2 billion. (Feb 2024)
This will go down as one of the biggest bag fumbles of all time…
Michael Saylor said it best with the following Tweet:
Now that all of that selling pressure (at least from Germany) is over, the market can finally move forward.
The local bottom may finally be in.
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THE FUTURE IS BRIGHT 💎
The current pullback is a gift to long-term investors.
Key tailwinds could drive Bitcoin to $100,000 by year-end.
That’s the latest out from Matt Hougan.
Matt Hougan is the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, the 5th largest Bitcoin ETF issuer.
Every week, Matt releases a market commentary memo.
This week Matt focused on the state that the crypto market finds itself in:
All short-term news is bad and all long-term news is good
So let’s break down these 4 massive tailwinds.
1. Bitcoin ETF inflows
The US Bitcoin ETFs have pulled in $15 billion in net inflows so far.
That’s the most successful ETF launch of all time.
But Matt believes they’re only just getting started:
“The ETPs are not even approved yet for mainstream use by the largest wealth management platforms, including Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo. When that happens—later this year, I suspect—we’re likely to see billions more flow in.”
2. The Bitcoin Halving
The Bitcoin halving took place in April of this year. (reducing new incoming supply by 50%)
And historically, Bitcoin has performed exceptionally well in the year after each halving.
Is there any reason to believe this time will be different?
3. The Ethereum ETFs
The Ethereum ETFs are just around the corner. (ETF analyst Eric Balchunas is predicting a July 18th launch)
Matt predicts that the Ethereum ETFs could attract $15 billion in net inflows in their first 18 months.
4. Washington’s attitude change towards crypto
In the past, Washington has been strongly against crypto.
But over the past few months, things have began to change…
“In May, for instance, 71 Democrats joined 208 Republicans in support of a promising new regulatory framework for crypto.”
Going one step further, the GOP made crypto part of their official 2024 platform - a historic first.
Matt emphasises that Washington’s attitude shift is a game changer.
5. Fed rate cuts
Rate cuts are coming…
Right now analysts are predicting 2 rate cuts by the end of 2024 and 4-5 rate cuts over the next 12 months.
Falling rates are bullish AF for crypto.
That’s a whole lot of long-term crypto catalysts…
Here’s how Matt sums it up:
“I have never seen a better long-term setup for crypto than right now… The right mix of developments in the second half of the year could easily drive Bitcoin to $100,000 and push Ethereum to new all-time highs.”
With all of this good news, why are prices still down? 🤷♂️
The simple answer is one-off sales.
The past two weeks has seen:
Mt. Gox distributions: Starting this July, distributions of more than $8 billion in Bitcoin began
US government sales: The US government holds over $12 billion in Bitcoin it seized in 2013 from Silk Road.
German government sales: As we mentioned earlier, the German government has now sold roughly $2 billion worth of Bitcoin
The good news is that these are all one-off events.
The German government no longer has any Bitcoin, so we can move past that now.
“Meanwhile, the positives are ongoing. The Bitcoin ETPs aren’t going anywhere, Ethereum continues to attract new interest, Washington’s embrace of crypto appears to be accelerating, and so on. That’s why the recent pullback is a gift.”
Right now, the market is being held back by one-off events.
Once we’ve digested these short-term liquidity shocks, the future looks bright. 💎
If you’d like to hear more insights from Matt Hougan, make sure to checkout the full interview here.
It’s a banger. 💥
To celebrate the release of this interview we gave away $100 in Crypto to 3 lucky readers.
(One of the many reasons why you should read us everyday - you never know when we’ll drop our next giveaway!)
A special thanks to everyone who showed support & love towards the channel.
Crypto Nutshell readers are truly the best.
Without further ado - congratulations to our 3 randomly selected winners!
ca******[email protected]
li*****[email protected]
If any of these resemble your email - check your inbox! You’ll see an email from us!
BITCOIN ADOPTION DECREASING? 📉
Time for a check-in on Bitcoin’s adoption levels.
To do that we’ll we’ll be taking a look at the number of addresses with a non-zero balance.
It provides a high level overview of the Bitcoin network’s user base/activity.
Keep in mind though, one wallet does not equal one user. A user can have many wallets.
What matters here is the trend of the chart.
Increasing number of addresses: increasing adoption levels 📈
Decreasing number of addresses: indicates users are selling their entire balance or consolidating wallets 📉
As of today there are 52,508,218 addresses with a positive balance.
Two weeks ago this metric was at 52,727,773 wallets.
That’s a decrease of -219,555 wallets. 😱
Which sounds like a LOT at first glance.
And to be fair, during price corrections this metric always takes a hit.
But…
Year-to-date, this metric has increased by +787,080 wallets.
The important thing to look at here is the trend of the chart.
And it’s basically always been trending upwards, with some dips along the way of course (like we’ve seen recently).
That’s a clear sign that Bitcoin adoption levels have been increasing every single year.
Bullish. 🐂
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
Bitcoin mining touted as solution for UK's renewable energy goals. UK crypto advocates urge government to leverage Bitcoin mining for energy grid stability.
Genesis-labelled address moves $720M BTC to Coinbase, pointing to start of asset liquidations. Genesis Trading transferred over 12,600 Bitcoin to Coinbase over the past 30 days, two months after reaching a settlement with the state of New York.
SEC Drops Investigation of Bitcoin L2 Stacks and Builder Hiro, Filing Says. The conclusion of the probe into Hiro, formerly known as Blockstack is another win for the crypto industry.
Solana Meme Coin Bonk and Ethereum's Pepe See Big Losses. Most of the meme coin market has taken a hit today with favorites Bonk, Pepe, and Brett taking the largest losses.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
Want to get even smarter? Check these out.
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The Hustle (link) - Get Smarter on Business and Tech
Your Next Breakthrough (link) - Personal growth with Mark Manson
The Neuron (link) - AI trends and tools to keep you ahead
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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)
What is Ethereum's current all-time high?(USD) |
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: B) $4,721.07 🥳
According to Coinbase, Ethereum’s all-time high is $4,721.07
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