GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #953 bringin‘ the news… 🥜

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BREAKING: Bitcoin price hits 11-week high as US Treasury doubles debt buyback size

For five weeks Bitcoin did nothing.

Overnight it jumped almost 12% and cleared $72,000, its highest in eleven weeks.

Ether ran harder, up 20% and back above $2,250 for the first time since May.

The trigger was the US Treasury.

It said it will at least double the size of its buybacks in longer-dated government bonds, from $2 billion an operation to at least $4 billion, running from September 9 into November.

Markets read that as more liquidity washing through the system, and risk assets took off.

It isn't exactly fresh money though... (One strategist called it a reshuffle of the government's debt schedule, not a paydown.)

That was enough anyway, helped by a softer read on the Fed and a White House sit-down with crypto bosses.

The scale of the move came down to how the market was sitting.

The price had held a $62,000 to $66,000 band on the thinnest volume in three years, bets against it stacking up the whole time.

A market that quiet, leaning that hard one way, only needs a shove.

And it got one, and close to $2 billion in positions were liquidated on the way up, most of them shorts forced to buy back.

That scramble is what carried Bitcoin to $70,000.

One catch…

The money that usually fuels a rally like this still isn't here.

Stablecoins sitting on exchanges, the dry powder for new buying, have shrunk by $14 billion since May.

"Until stablecoin supply turns," Bitfinex said, "the rally stays unfunded."

We’ve finally broken through the range that’s held for ages. 🚀

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Jesse Myers is on his third Bitcoin bear market. And he just wrote down what newer holders can't feel yet.

Myers, known as @Croesus_BTC, is a widely followed Bitcoin analyst and one of the sharpest voices on cycle psychology.

His core lesson, learned across three cycles:

A bottom isn't a catalyst. It's an exhaustion of sellers.

The gloom builds on itself, shakes out every low-conviction holder, until the pile of cash waiting to buy lower dwarfs the sellers left to satisfy it. Then the people sitting in cash get caught offside and have to bid it higher to get back in.

He lived it in 2022. Bitcoin broke below the prior cycle's $20k high for the first time ever, tumbled toward $15.5k at the FTX low, felt dead for two months. In hindsight, that was the launchpad for a 2.5 year, 8x run to $126k.

Now the on-chain data is rhyming. Short-Term Holder cost basis peaked oversold in February 2026, then drifted lower for six months, the same shape 2022 traced before its breakout.

If the parallel holds, price jumps convincingly above short-term holder cost basis in the next few months. September on one measure, November on another.

The bottom feels exactly like this. 🦀

Time for check in on Ethereum’s supply side dynamics.

To do that we’ll be focusing on the amount of Ethereum currently being staked.

Quick Note: Ethereum staking involves locking up ETH to support the blockchain’s security. In return, users earn rewards for staking.

If you’d like to learn more about staking, check out this article.

42.30 million ETH is now locked in staking. Up from 41.56 million two weeks ago.

Past 42 million, and picking up speed.

Staked ETH added 740,000 this fortnight, up from 540,000 last period, so the pace is quickening.

That carries the total through 42 million for the first time, another round number gone.

Since January, close to 6 million ETH has moved into staking contracts, supply deliberately pulled off the table to earn yield.

More than a third of all Ethereum now sits voluntarily locked, out of circulation and climbing whatever the price does.

Each fortnight this rises, a little less ether is left that anyone can actually sell. 💪

Chinese InsurTech Firm Zhibao Adds 2,380 Bitcoin in $154.7M Treasury Pivot. The Shanghai-based insurtech closed a $154.7 million private placement funded entirely in crypto, with investors contributing Bitcoin directly rather than cash.

Cantor opens Kalshi prediction markets to thousands of institutional clients. The investment bank will let its roughly 3,000 institutional clients place large block trades in Kalshi's event contracts.

US commodities regulator imposes 5-year trading ban on ex-Alameda, FTX execs. The consent orders close the CFTC's case after FTX and Alameda agreed to $12.7 billion in disgorgement and restitution.

OCC races to finalize GENIUS Act stablecoin rules by November. The banking regulator is racing to finalize rules implementing the GENIUS stablecoin law by November, following its 376-page February proposal.

Want to get even smarter? Check these out.

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Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: Ethereum Classic 🥳

Most of the Ethereum community adopted a fork that returned funds lost in The DAO attack, while miners who rejected that change kept the original chain running as Ethereum Classic.

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.