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BREAKING: Crypto under weekend pressure, bitcoin slides below $80,000 on U.S. Middle East evacuations

Friday we asked what the Fed does on Wednesday, and 84% of you said it holds but keeps a December hike on the table.

12% of you think it hikes anyway, and 4% expect it to signal it's done hiking this year.

We'll score it on Thursday, once the decision's in.

Bitcoin had its own scare first, sliding under $80,000 on Saturday to about $79,300, its lowest in more than a month.

That came after a Wall Street Journal report on Saturday morning that the US is pulling staff out of embassies and military bases across the Middle East, on intelligence that Iran is planning attacks on Americans.

The night before, Trump had told a Florida rally he could escalate the war with Iran again after the midterms in early November.

Stock and bond markets were shut, so Bitcoin was the big market left open to take the headline, and traders who'd borrowed to bet on higher prices paid for it.

Liquidations hit $815 million over 24 hours, more than triple the day before, and caught 201,012 traders, by CoinGlass's count.

In the worst four hours, Ether liquidations reached $137 million, close to Bitcoin's $158 million, from a market less than a fifth the size.

The spot ETFs won back buyers early last week, but they've already left again…

Investors pulled $773 million on Thursday and Friday, after putting $1.08 billion in earlier in the week.

Bitcoin's still under the funds' average cost of roughly $81,500, so their buyers are, on average, sitting on a loss.

On October 15, Bitcoin broke $80,000 and was back at $82,200 within 90 minutes, as bond yields fell and the Nasdaq recovered.

This time ETF investors are heading the other way, and Bitcoin spent the weekend stuck near $80,000. 🚀

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Arthur Hayes just sold the lot, and the last word of his post tells you what would bring him back.

Hayes is the co-founder and former CEO of BitMEX, and one of crypto's most-read macro essayists.

Here's what he posted:

Maelstrom is his family office, and its directional book is the set of straight bets on prices rising or falling.

He posted early on Saturday, with Bitcoin near $80,700 and Ether near $2,375.

Later that day came reports that the US was evacuating personnel across the Middle East over threatened Iranian attacks, and Bitcoin slid under $80,000 to its weakest level in more than a month.

Leveraged longs (bets on a rise made with borrowed money) lost $404 million in four hours on the way down.

By Sunday evening Bitcoin was back near $80,400, so the sale hasn't mattered much yet…

"Brrrrr" is Hayes shorthand for the money printer, and his whole thesis is that crypto's big runs start when central banks are forced to create fresh money.

Going down to go up means he expects the stress to get worse first, bad enough that the Fed or Treasury has to step in.

He didn't spell out his all-clear signal, but last month he named a candidate: the MOVE index (the VIX for Treasury bonds) above 130 would green-light a bailout.

It closed Friday at 103.

Two weeks ago he was telling us mega bull runs have to climb a wall of worry, and nothing in this post takes that back.

This is a trader's call on the next few weeks, made by someone who still expects the printer to win.

If 130 is his trigger, he's waiting on another 27 points of bond-market panic before he buys back in. 🖨️

Let's kick off the week with a look at the Bitcoin HODL Waves, one of the clearest snapshots of market conviction.

Each coloured band represents the percentage of Bitcoin that last moved within a specific time frame.

The cooler the colour, the older the coins, with purple showing Bitcoin that hasn't moved in 10+ years.

Today we're focusing on long-term holders (LTHs), defined as coins held for more than six months.

Here's how the Bitcoin supply breakdown looks today compared to two weeks ago:

TL;DR: 79.83% of all Bitcoin has not moved in over six months. 💎

Down from 79.89% two weeks ago, a 0.06% slip that's about a fifteenth of the 0.93% drop last time.

That's roughly 12,000 Bitcoin moving back under the six-month line, against about 187,000 the fortnight before.

The bands shifted far more than the total did, because most of the change was coins ageing from one band into the next.

The 6-12 month band fell 0.54%, while the 1-2 year band gained 0.29% as coins moved around October 2025's record high turned a year old.

The same shift showed up further out, with the 3-5 year band down 0.41% and the 5-7 year band up 0.30%.

Coins that haven't moved in over two years now make up 48.93% of all Bitcoin, up from 48.74%.

The long-term share held almost exactly where it was, and nearly half of all Bitcoin has now sat still for two years or more. 💎

CoinDCX confirms $16 million loss from retired wallets days after CEO called breach reports a 'false alarm'. Deposits built up at a wallet compromised in its July 2025 hack, and the exchange says it absorbed the 15.99 million USDT loss.

Hong Kong’s Biggest Bank Puts a Stablecoin in 3 Million Wallets. HSBC's licensed Hong Kong dollar token went live in the PayMe app on Friday, with about $10.2 million in circulation soon after.

Netanyahu floats use of blockchain as solution to potential financial sanctions. Speaking ahead of Tuesday's election, he called blockchain an alternative to sanctions, while the Bank of Israel said crypto can't be used to bypass them.

Argentina drops criminal probe into President Milei over crashed memecoin LIBRA. A federal judge cleared Milei and 10 others, finding his 2025 post promoting the token did not amount to fraud.

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Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: A layer-2 network of payment channels that settles back to Bitcoin 🥳

Two users lock BTC in a shared channel and pay each other off-chain as often as they like, with only the opening and closing balances recorded on the Bitcoin blockchain. That's how it handles small, near-instant payments without clogging the main chain.

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