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GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #617 loadin’ up… 🏗️🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more emotional than a jazz musician discovering the meaning of life one note at a time... 🎷✨

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

• 🌊 Here we go

• 🤨 What would it take?

• 📉 Off a cliff

• 💰 And more…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

HERE WE GO 🌊

BREAKING: Bitcoin crosses $100,000 for first time since February

We’re so back…

For the first time since February, Bitcoin reclaimed the $100,000 level - hitting a high of $103,969.

But this isn’t just another hype cycle.

This breakout is fundamentally different — driven by macro tailwinds, regulatory breakthroughs, and institutional firepower all hitting at once.

So what’s causing this rally?

Let’s break it down:

1. The Fed Paused… But Markets Aren’t Waiting

The Fed held rates steady this week, but traders are already front-running the pivot.

• 61.7% odds of a July rate cut

• 90.0% odds by September

• 96.4% odds by October

Even Trump is applying pressure (again), telling reporters:

Translation?

Markets expect cheap money is coming back.

2. ETF Inflows Are Heating Up Again

So far this week, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen $599.5 million in inflows.

That’s real institutional demand re-entering the system.

At the same time, exchange balances have dropped to 15% of total supply - the lowest level in 5 years. (More on this later)

Demand’s rising.

Whilst the supply is tightening.

You know how this ends…

3. Policy Momentum Is Exploding

The U.S. is suddenly going full-throttle on Bitcoin:

• Two states have passed Strategic Bitcoin Reserve laws

• Missouri just axed capital gains tax on BTC

• The OCC gave banks the green light to trade crypto and outsource custody

• The FDIC approved crypto asset custody for banks

4. Trump’s Trade Deal Hype Is Driving Risk-On Flows

Trump’s new U.S.–U.K. trade deal may be light on substance, but it’s heavy on momentum.

He even teased “many other deals in serious stages.”

Markets responded instantly:

• Dow: +500 pts

• S&P 500: +1.47%

• BTC: +6%

• ETH: +20%

• DOGE: +14%

The Takeaway

Rate cut expectations.
ETF inflows.
Shrinking exchange supply.
Strategic reserve laws.
Bank-level crypto access.
And now, trade deals adding to the tailwind.

Bitcoin isn’t just breaking out - it’s being legitimised at every level.

The setup is real.

And it’s just getting started. 🚀

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WHAT WOULD IT TAKE? 🤨

Matt Hougan, CIO of Bitwise, just shared one of the most relatable Bitcoin memos of the year.

It wasn’t about ETFs, flows, or macro charts.

It was about 1 question:

That’s the question Hougan asked a skeptical advisor after his keynote speech at a major wirehouse conference.

The answer changed everything.

The Skeptic’s Dilemma

After listening to Hougan’s presentation on Bitcoin, the advisor admitted:

His fear?

If the world stopped believing in Bitcoin… it would be worth nothing.

Hougan didn’t dismiss it. He leaned in.
Even admitted he’s had the same thought before.

But then he reframed it:

Look Around — It’s Already Happening

Still waiting for a sign Bitcoin has arrived?

Here’s what’s already happened:

• Trusted custody: Fidelity, Coinbase, BNY Mellon

• Institutional trading: Jane Street, DRW, Cumberland

• Adoption by giants: 9 of the 10 biggest hedge funds now hold Bitcoin

• Mainstream access: Spot ETFs are now live

• Portfolio allocation: BlackRock recommends 2% BTC

• Corporate exposure: Tesla, MicroStrategy, 80+ public companies

• Government involvement: The U.S. is building a strategic Bitcoin reserve

The list goes on & on.

These were all once future milestones.

Now they’re reality.

All the things people once said they needed to see… they’re happening. Now.

Final Take

So — what would it take for you to believe Bitcoin is here to stay?

For that advisor, it finally clicked.

He paused… then said: “I’m going to buy Bitcoin.”

Hougan’s bet?

A lot more people will say the same thing this year.

Because the barriers? They’re not real anymore.

They’re just outdated excuses. ⏳

OFF A CLIFF 📉

Today we’ll be taking a look at the amount of Bitcoin available for sale on exchanges.

Here’s how to interpret this metric:

• Decreasing exchange balances: Bullish indicator as it signals a shift towards long-term holding 🐂

• Increasing exchange balances: Bearish indicator as coins being transferred to exchanges are more likely to be sold 🐻

Only 3,033,989 BTC now sits on exchanges — just 15.28% of total supply.

That’s the lowest level since 2019.

In plain English: There’s not much Bitcoin left for sale.

Over the past month alone, 57,551 BTC — worth nearly $5.93 billion — has been pulled from exchanges.

The message is loud and clear:

• Investors are stacking.

• Exchange supply is drying up.

• And a tight supply has only ever meant one thing: explosive rallies.

Every cycle tells the same story.

And this one’s no different.

The setup is here.

History is rhyming.

We’re just getting started. 😎

CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜

Arizona and Oregon embrace Bitcoin in sweeping new laws. US states, Arizona and Oregon, make bold moves with laws set to harness Bitcoin's potential in state-level finance.

US Stablecoin bill blocked as Democrats withdraw support. The GENIUS Act failed to clear a procedure called cloture after pushback from Senate Democrats, who raised concerns about US President Donald Trump's crypto ventures.

In $2.9B Deal, Coinbase Buys Deribit to Expand in U.S. Crypto Options Market. The deal includes $700 million in cash and 11 million shares of Coinbase Class A common stock.

Meta explores stablecoins to reduce payment costs years after selling off failed Diem project. The firm also reportedly contacted crypto infrastructure firms to tackle cross-regional payment costs.

WHAT WE’RE READING 📚

Want to get even smarter? Check these out.

p.s. all completely FREE (one click subscribe link)

• Raremints (link) - Daily crypto news

• Bitcoin Breakdown (link) - Daily Bitcoin news

• Techpresso (link) - Daily tech news and insights

• The Hustle (link) - Get Smarter on Business and Tech

• Your Next Breakthrough (link) - Personal growth with Mark Manson

• The Neuron (link) - AI trends and tools to keep you ahead

CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️

Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

MEME CORNER 😂

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: Family Guy 🥳

In a 2019 episode of Family Guy, Peter finds out he bought Bitcoin years ago — and it’s now worth a fortune. Even cartoons knew. 📺🪙

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.