🥜 Why crypto is crashing

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What we’ve cooked up for you today…

  • 🚀 Bitcoin strategic reserve asset

  • 📈 It’s not what you think it is

  • 😱 Grayscale… Here we go again

  • 💰 And more…

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MARKET WATCH ⚖️

market data

Prices as at 5:45am ET

Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section

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BITCOIN STRATEGIC RESERVE ASSET 🚀

BREAKING: Wyoming Sen. Lummis plans to announce legislation for Strategic Bitcoin Reserve at Nashville conference

Bitcoin

We’ve got some HUGE breaking news for you today.

Senator Cynthia Lummis plans to propose that the Federal Reserve hold Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset.

Just as they hold gold and other foreign currencies.

According to Fox Business, Lummis plans to make this announcement on Saturday at the Bitcoin 2024 conference.

The timing of this is intentional, as Donald Trump is scheduled to talk at the conference on Saturday at 2pm.

Lummis is hoping Trump will endorse the bill and the idea behind it.

And Senator Lummis has been teasing a big announcement on Twitter this week, posting the following:

Lummis

Notice the ₿?

The US adopting Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset would be MASSIVE.

“Classifying the world’s largest cryptocurrency as a strategic reserve asset would be the firing gun in the ‘Bitcoin Space Race’…If the United States – the wealthiest country in the world and the home of global capital – began accumulating bitcoin on its balance sheet, other countries would have powerful incentives to do the same."

Sam Lyman, director of public policy at Riot Platforms

But it’s only an idea for now.

Once this bill has been created it would require the support of the president and Congress.

Which is no easy feat.

In other news…

Rumours have been circulating recently that Kamala Harris would make an appearance at Bitcoin 2024 this weekend.

Well, safe to say that rumour has now been put to bed.

It’s not happening.

David Bailey, CEO of Bitcoin Magazine confirmed it with the following post:

David Bailey

This conference is shaping up to be a juicy one

It sounds like there’ll be some BIG announcements coming out of it.

As always, we’ll keep you updated on all the latest developments.

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IT’S NOT WHAT YOU THINK IT IS 📈 

Bitcoin cycles have nothing to do with the halving

And everything to do with the US election cycle.

That’s the latest out from Fred Krueger.

Fred Krueger

If you haven’t heard of him, here’s Krueger’s credentials:

  • Worked on Wall Street for close to a decade 💼

  • Extremely successful entrepreneur - has exited 10 companies, with some exits in the tens of millions 💰

  • Studied mathematics, with a P.H.D from Stanford University 📚

In his latest video, Fred broke down what he believes drives Bitcoin’s 4 year cycle.

And it’s not what you think it is…

Here’s what Fred had to say:

“I really do think that the election cycle is a big driver of Bitcoin’s price.”

Fred Krueger

Yep… Fred believes that the election cycle is the biggest driver of Bitcoin’s price in the short-term.

And he’s even got the data to back this claim up.

Here’s a comparison of Bitcoin’s price three months before and three months after each of the last three elections:

  • 2012: $11 → $31 (2.8x)

  • 2016: $575 → $1,062 (1.8x)

  • 2020: $12K → $38K (3.1x)

On average, Bitcoin has gone up 2.6x during this 6 month period surrounding the election.

Ok, well why is this the case then?

Fred explains:

Markets hate uncertainty… And once the election is over, there’s a lot less uncertainty. This is not a statement on ‘party matters’. This is a short-term thing and right now the short-term data is looking pretty good.”

Fred Krueger

Fred even gave a bullish prediction for the next 6 months:

“Do I think we could double between now and the next 6 months. I do. That’s my base case.”

Fred Krueger

A ~$128,000 Bitcoin in the next 6 months…

Yes please, we’d all happily take that. 😎 

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GRAYSCALE… HERE WE GO AGAIN 😱 

Anyone getting PTSD from Grayscale?

Just like the Bitcoin ETFs, the launch of the Ethereum ETFs has seen Grayscale dump hundreds of millions onto the market.

Yesterday, we covered day 1 of the Ethereum ETFs which saw net inflows of $106.6 million.

But day 2 was a little different…

Unfortunately the Ethereum ETFs experienced net outflows of $133.3 million on their second day of trading.

Every other issuer saw net inflows except for you know who.

$326.9 million flowed out of Grayscale on day 2…

Bringing their outflow total up to $811 million already. (that’s way quicker than we were expecting, the fund only has $9 billion in total assets)

ETH

And the price of Ethereum reacted negatively, as you’d expect.

In the last 24 hours, ETH has fallen 8.18% down to $3,178. (at the time of writing)

But we want to remind you that we’ve been here before.

The launch of the Bitcoin ETFs was the exact same story.

Check out the chart below.

BTC etf

The Bitcoin ETFs triggered a ~20% drawdown within one week of launch.

But here’s the thing.

The ETH Grayscale outflows are currently 5x higher than the BTC outflows for the same period…

That’s a huge difference, and considering that, ETH seems to be holding up pretty well.

And just for a bit of hopium, once the BTC Grayscale outflows started slowing down, Bitcoin increased by 92% in less than 2 months.

And it looks like the Grayscale outflows will be slowing down much quicker this time.

As we said before launch, expect price movements to be more dramatic for ETH.

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CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜

Ferrari drives into Europe with crypto payments, as industry embraces digital assets. Ferrari's expansion into crypto payments reflects the rising influence of digital currencies in the luxury auto market.

Franklin Templeton eyes Solana ETF after Ethereum success. Bitcoin ETF issuer Franklin Templeton is optimistic about a spot Solana ETF amid the launch of its Franklin Ethereum ETF.

Bitcoin ETFs Break Inflow Streak as Traders Look to Trump’s Nashville Appearance for Volatility. Bitwise’s BITB led with $70 million in net outflows, followed by Ark’s ARKB at $52 million and Grayscale’s GBTC at $27 million.

Hashdex files S1 for an ETF that holds bitcoin and ether, leaves door open for other assets. Hashdex took the next move in its plan to launch an exchange-traded fund that directly owns spot bitcoin and ether.

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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️

Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

How much Bitcoin does Tesla currently hold?

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MEME CORNER 😂

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

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Trivia Answer: C) 9,720 BTC 🥳

Tesla currently holds 9,720 BTC

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.

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