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- 🥜 Why is Bitcoin pumping?
🥜 Why is Bitcoin pumping?
PLUS: Ethereum ETFs this week
Today’s edition is brought to you by TLDR Newsletter - catch up on the latest tech, startup, and coding stories.
GM to all you crypto nuts. Crypto Nutshell #386 feelin’ the love... 🫶 🥜
We’re the crypto newsletter that's more intense than surviving an alien invasion... 👽🛸
What we’ve cooked up for you today…
🏦 Let it rip
🤔 Bitcoin to $1 million
📈 No Bitcoin for sale
💰 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 5:45am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
LET IT RIP 🏦
BREAKING: Bitcoin reclaims $62K, analysts say worst is ‘likely behind us’
That’s it.
The bottom is now officially in. (we’re calling it)
The last 24 hours has seen the price of Bitcoin soar by over 4.92% to ~$63,000.
Recently the price of Bitcoin has been held back by the forced selling of the German government.
The German government unloaded nearly $3 billion worth of Bitcoin onto the market over the last 2 weeks.
And according to on-chain analyst Willy Woo, Miner capitulation also appears to be coming to an end.
These are all clear signs that the local bottom is in.
But it wasn’t just Bitcoin that started popping off out of no where…
Ethereum has also had an excellent last 24 hours, increasing by over 5.28% to ~$3,360.
The likely reason for this surge is the pending approval of the Ethereum ETFs.
ETF analyst Eric Balchunas and many others are predicting an approval on July 18th.
The Ethereum ETFs may finally launch this week.
It’s all happening.
We’re so damn back. 😎
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BITCOIN TO $1 MILLION? 🤔
Using this model we know exactly when Bitcoin will peak this cycle…
That’s the latest out from Fred Krueger.
In his latest video, Krueger explained the Bitcoin Power Law model and how it can be used to predict the price of Bitcoin.
The Bitcoin Power Law model was first discovered by astrophysicist Giovanni Santostasi.
The model plots Bitcoin’s price and time in log-log scale. You can clearly see the trend. (green line)
And with this model, Bitcoin appears to follow a predictable pattern of growth over time.
The Bitcoin Power Law Model
The math behind it is quite complex, but the key thing to know is that power law’s like these are EXTREMELY rare.
Especially for an asset like Bitcoin, these things just don’t happen.
Here’s how Fred explains it:
“The green line is a trend line. This trend line has an R-Squared* of 95-96% spread over six orders of magnitude, from when Bitcoin was at $0.10 to when Bitcoin was almost $100,000. All I can tell you is, I have a PhD in Math and you’ll never see such a chart EVER, in anything, with these kinds of numbers.”
*An R-Squared value shows how well the model predicts the outcome of the dependent variable. It ranges from 0 - 1, with 1 representing a perfect fit.
An R-Squared value of 96% is kind of crazy…
It means the model shows a strong linear relationship.
Continuing on, Fred explains:
“If you look at the red line which is the support line, it’s one standard deviation in log space under the green line. It is hard to un-see this graph.”
Bitcoin has never gone below the red line and never above the purple line.
So far the Power Law model has been spookily accurate…
So let’s see some of the predictions that can be made using this model:
Bitcoin will reach $100,000 no earlier than 2021 and no later than 2028. After 2028, the price will never drop below $100,000.
Bitcoin will reach $1,000,000 no earlier than 2028 and no later than 2037. After 2037, the price will never drop below $1,000,000.
But what about this cycle?
Well, if we assume a market top of around October or November 2025, the model calls for a Bitcoin price between $130,000 and $500,000.
Now wouldn’t a $500,000 Bitcoin be nice…
Keep in mind though, this is only just a model.
And this model depends on Bitcoin’s previous performance being indicative of the future.
Which isn’t always the case…
But it is useful in getting an idea for where Bitcoin could potentially be heading.
NO BITCOIN FOR SALE 📈
Time for check in on the classic Bitcoin HODL Waves.
This is one of our favourite metrics.
Each coloured band shows the percentage of Bitcoin that last moved within that time period.
As the colours get cooler, the age bands get older (yellow being the oldest, representing coins last moved within the last 3 - 6 months).
This metric can also be used for long-term holders, but we’ll just be focusing on short-term holders today.
Here’s the breakdown:
24hr: 0.51%
1d - 1w: 1.89%
1w - 1m: 4.60%
1m - 3m: 6.56%
3m - 6m: 12.89%
That means that ~26.45% of the Bitcoin supply has moved within the last 6 months.
Which leaves ~73.55% of the Bitcoin supply NOT moving in 6+ months.
When you think about, that’s an insane amount of the supply being HODL’d.
This metric can also be used to gauge where we are in the cycle.
As the price of Bitcoin increases, the amount of short-term holders also increases. (notice that uptick in short-term holders as the price of Bitcoin rises?)
This is due to long-term holders deciding to take profits by selling their coins. (This makes those coins “young” again) 🤑
Although, each spike is smaller than the previous one…
Which means the amount of long-term holders increases with each cycle.
With such a limited amount of Bitcoin for sale, the price has no choice but to go up. 🚀
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
Trump assassination attempt boosts election odds to ATH, Polymarket data shows. Former President Donald Trump’s chances of winning the U.S. presidential election jumped following a failed assassination attempt on Saturday.
Coinbase launches unified onchain monitoring through new wallet app. Coinbase has launched a new version of its crypto wallet that will allow users to connect self-custodial wallets and access portfolios in a single place.
MakerDAO's $1B Tokenized Treasury Investment Plan Draws Interest from BlackRock's BUIDL, Ondo, Superstate. MakerDAO's competition to allocate funds will open next month, and would give a big boost for the $1.8 billion tokenized real-world asset space.
Robert Kiyosaki Renews Bitcoin Buy Recommendation, Citing Wall Street Loading Up on BTC. Rich Dad Poor Dad author Robert Kiyosaki has renewed his bitcoin buy recommendation, noting that Wall Street is loading up on the crypto.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
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The Hustle (link) - Get Smarter on Business and Tech
Your Next Breakthrough (link) - Personal growth with Mark Manson
The Neuron (link) - AI trends and tools to keep you ahead
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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)
The Bitcoin ______ is the set of rules that define how the Bitcoin system operates. |
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: A) Protocol 🥳
The Bitcoin protocol is the set of rules that govern the functioning of Bitcoin.
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