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🥜 Why is Bitcoin pumping?
PLUS: Massive ETF Day
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GM to all 64,612 of you. Crypto Nutshell #347 clearin’ the way... 🛤️🥜
We’re the crypto newsletter that’s more heartwarming than a group of animated toys coming to life... 🧸🎈
What we’ve cooked up for you today…
🏦 Huge day for Bitcoin ETFs
🤨 Conservative cycle prediction
📈 The realized cap
💰 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 6:30am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
HUGE DAY FOR BITCOIN ETFS 🏦
BREAKING: Bitcoin crosses $71K as BTC ETFs see $887M inflows in best day since march
The Bitcoin ETFs just had a monster day. 🤑
In fact it was their second largest inflow day ever!
Even Grayscale saw inflows. 👀
In total, the Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $886.6 million.
Fidelity - FBTC: $378.7 million 🥇
BlackRock - IBIT: $274.4 million 🥈
ARK Invest - ARKB: $138.7 million 🥉
Off the back of this news, Bitcoin’s price immediately crossed $70,000.
And is hovering around ~$71,000 at the time of writing.
ETF analyst Eric Balchunas summarised it perfectly:
“Fidelity not messing around, big-time flows all around today for The Ten, nearly $1b in total. Second best day ever, since Mid-March. $3.3b in past 4 weeks, net YTD at $15b (which was our top end of our 12 month estimate). The ‘third wave’ is turning into a tidal wave.”
The boomers are here.
TOGETHER WITH EXODUS 💸
The crypto bull run is now well underway.
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WE’VE SEEN THIS BEFORE? 🔮
Now we all know the Bitcoin halving is when Bitcoin mining rewards are cut in half.
(If you’re new here, checkout this short article explaining what the halving is in greater detail)
But did you know that the halving dates have also represented almost perfect symmetry within past bull cycles?
That’s what trader Peter Brandt has pointed out in his latest research article.
Brandt explains that the halving date is almost perfectly in the middle of the cycle low and cycle high.
Here’s the break down:
Halving 1
385 days from cycle low to Halving date
357 days from Halving date to cycle high
Halving 2
532 days from cycle low to Halving date
532 days from Halving date to cycle high
Halving 3
497 days from cycle low to Halving date
546 days from Halving date to cycle high
Halving 4 (this cycle)
490 days from cycle low to Halving date
~490 days from Halving date to cycle high?
Now it’s not quite an exact match (except for Halving 2 - that’s kind of insane though), but it’s been pretty close.
Using this pattern, Brandt predicts when the market is likely to hit a top:
“If this sequence continues, the next bull market cycle high should occur in late Aug/early Sep 2025.”
Brandt also predicts what price range Bitcoin could hit during this cycle:
“Should this tendency also continue, the high of this bull market cycle could be in the $130,000 to $150,000 range. The X on the chart marks the probable high date and price level.”
However, this prediction is entirely based on past cycle performance.
So it goes without saying:
Past performance is not an indicator of future results
But it is a little spooky how well they’ve lined up in the past…
THE REALIZED CAP 📈
Today we’ll be taking a look at the realized cap.
The realized cap values each coin at the price it was last moved at.
It differs to the market cap, which measures the current price multiplied by the circulating supply.
This is why analysts love this metric. (it’s also the base layer of so many on-chain indicators)
Lost coins are effectively removed from the calculation, as they have low economic value. Think Satoshi’s coins, which haven’t moved in over 10+ years. (their realized value would be incredibly small as Bitcoin was less than $1)
Uptrends: coins purchased at cheaper prices are being spent for profits. Bull market signal 🐂
Downtrends: investors are realizing losses. Bear market signal 🐻
Sideways: smart money investors accumulating cheap Bitcoins, providing buy support 💸
The last time we looked at this metric (April 3rd) the realized cap was $540 billion.
Currently it’s at ~$594 billion. (an all-time high)
That’s an increase of $54 billion in just over two months.
When Bitcoin hovers around it’s all-time high, it’s natural that some investors to take profits.
As these investors take profits, the realized cap increases.
This is because older coins are being revalued from a lower cost basis to a higher one.
That’s why an increasing realized cap can also be considered a bull market signal. (it can only increase during price run-ups)
And as it continues to increase, it signals that there is sufficient demand for these coins at higher and higher prices.
With that in mind, expect to see the realized cap continue rising throughout this cycle.
As soon as this flashes the other way, it’s a major red flag. 🚩
We’ll keep an eye on it & as always, keep you posted. 🫡
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
Bitcoin ETFs show 'staying power,' now landing in Thailand. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continue to gain global traction as Thailand joins the trend.
Fidelity exec says most investors should have some Bitcoin allocation. The head of digital asset strategies at Fidelity said a small amount of Bitcoin makes sense in most investment portfolios.
BODEN Token Up Over 10%, TREMP Gains 5% After Kraken Lists Solana PoliFi Duo. BODEN appears to be the winner as first exchange open to U.S. residents lists the election-themed tokens.
Ethereum ETFs Could Draw $4 Billion In First Five Months: K33 Research. A $4 billion haul would be proportional to Ethereum’s institutional dominance next to Bitcoin, and the success of Bitcoin spot ETFs.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
Want to get even smarter? Check these out.
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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)
When was Coinbase founded? |
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: D) Coinbase 🥳
Coinbase was founded in 2012 by Brian Armstrong and Fred Ehrsam in San Francisco, USA.
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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.
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