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- 🥜 Why is crypto crashing?
🥜 Why is crypto crashing?
PLUS: This Is Big
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What we’ve cooked up for you today…
🤔 Why is Crypto crashing?
🤑 This will be big
🚂 Still on track
💰 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 6:50am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
WHY IS BITCOIN CRASHING? 🤔
BREAKING: Bitcoin slips below $65K as Fed holds rates, hints at September cut
What just happened?
Why did Bitcoin just fall below $65,000?
Well there’s 3 main reasons…
Let’s break them down.
1. US Fed keeps rates steady
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) did what everyone was expecting…
They left interest rates at 5.25% to 5.50%.
“Inflation has eased substantially from a rate of 7% to 2.5%, we are strongly committed to returning inflation to our 2% in support of a strong economy that benefits everyone.”
While nothing official has been announced yet, many analysts are expecting the first rate cut by September.
Polymarket has an 85% of a September rate cut.
Lower rates are extremely bullish for risk assets like Bitcoin and crypto.
2. Mt. Gox
Remember the Mt. Gox repayments?
Well yeah, that’s still going on.
Yesterday, Mt. Gox unloaded $3.1 billion worth of Bitcoin to addresses related to BitGo.
As it stands, Mt. Gox still currently holds 32.9k BTC (22.5% of their original balance)
The Mt. Gox distributions are almost finally done.
3. The US Election
Polymarket currently has a Trump victory at 55%.
Whilst Kamala Harris is at 43%.
And the Bitcoin market has not been reacting positively to Harris’ recent increase in odds…
There’s a simple reason for this: markets hate uncertainty.
Right now Trump is seen as the pro-Bitcoin candidate whilst Kamala is seen as the anti-Bitcoin candidate. (more on this in the next section)
So those are the reasons that Bitcoin has “crashed”. (it’s only down 2.82% in the last 24 hours…)
But as we’ll be discussing later on in this newsletter, we’re right where we should be in the cycle.
It may not feel like it, the fun is just about to begin. 😎
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THIS WILL BE BIG 🤑
Under the current administration, the crypto industry has seen more progress than ever before.
People seem to forget that fact…
That’s the latest out from Anthony Pompliano.
In his latest interview, Pompliano broke down Bitcoin’s rise as a political issue.
Kicking off the interview, Pompliano pointed out something very interesting…
As is stands, the Democrats are seen as strongly against crypto.
But under the current administration, the crypto industry has seen an insane amount of progress.
“The current administration, they have made more progress for the crypto industry than any other administration before them. Coinbase went public. We got the Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs. Those three things probably did more for the crypto industry than all other things combined previously.”
Institutions have been applying for Bitcoin ETFs for over a decade.
In case you didn’t know, Gemini first applied for a Bitcoin ETF back in 2013.
And although Gary Gensler begrudgingly approved them, the main thing is that they are finally here.
The crypto industry views the current administration as abrasive. (rightfully so with the SEC’s numerous lawsuits against the industry)
But it’s worth pointing out that we still saw significant progress in this hostile environment.
Now imagine if we had an administration that supported crypto.
“If we get a president who simply says ‘hey, we’re going to be friendlier’, you would expect there to be an explosion of positive developments.”
Continuing on, Pompliano explained the significance of the US potentially creating a national Bitcoin stockpile.
“The United States is leader on the global stage, especially in the financial markets… If you are a president somewhere in the world and you hear that 2 of the 3 leading presidential candidates are talking about a strategic stockpile of Bitcoin for the US, you start asking your team what is our Bitcoin strategy.”
Pompliano believes that this move by the US will inspire other country’s to also explore a Bitcoin strategy.
At the end of the day, would these country’s just sit back and let the US have all the fun?
We don’t think so…
El Salvador is also a good example.
They’ve been purchasing at least 1 Bitcoin every single day since 2022.
And currently hold 5,828 BTC. (~$375.27 million)
El Salvador BTC purchases
It seems to be working pretty well for them…
STILL ON TRACK 🚂
With Bitcoin’s recent price action we’ve been chopping between $60,000 and $70,000 for what feels like forever.
Some are even claiming that the bull run is over…
But that couldn’t be further from the truth.
In fact when you look at the data, we’re right on track and following a similar pattern compared to previous cycles.
So that’s exactly what we’ll be doing today.
The chart below is a comparison of Bitcoin’s price after previous halvings.
Here’s what the data tells us:
🟢 2016 Bitcoin Halving: 182 days of sideways chop
🔵 2020 Bitcoin Halving: 161 days of sideways chop
⚫️ 2024 Bitcoin Halving: 101 days of sideways chop (so far)
So based off of the last two cycles, we can expect roughly 60 - 80 more days of boring sideways price action. 🥱
How fun…
80 days from now also puts us into late October 2024.
And do you know what’s happening after October 2024?
That’s right, the US presidential election (5th November, 2024)
And with that in mind, here’s a super interesting chart for you.
All the fun starts after the US election…
(vertical blue lines are US elections, vertical orange lines are Bitcoin halvings)
So it looks like we’ve just got to wait out this relatively “boring” part of the cycle.
Things should start to get fun soon…
According to the data, we’re right on track. 😎
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
Ripple's XRP soars to four-month high amid speculations of possible SEC settlement. Ripple XRP leads the crypto market in July, driven by retail and whale interest.
Sen. Lummis introduces Bitcoin Strategic Reserve bill in Senate. Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis has introduced her bill to the United States Senate to establish Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset of the United States.
Tether Nets $5B Profits This Year, Says Its US Debt Holdings Surpassed Germany's. The company said its $97 billion exposure to U.S. Treasuries would put it 18th in the ranking among countries.
$35T US national debt could bolster Bitcoin’s adoption as ‘hard money’. Bitcoin could see a new all-time high due to the growing US federal debt, which surpassed $105,000 for every living person in the country.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)
Who is the creator of Bitcoin? |
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: D) Satoshi Nakamato 🥳
Satoshi Nakamoto created Bitcoin in 2009.
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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.
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