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🥜 Why isn't Bitcoin higher?
PLUS: Monster ETF Week
Today’s edition is brought to you by Incogni.
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We’re the crypto newsletter that’s more heartwarming than a boy befriending a giant peach and its quirky inhabitants... 🍑🌟
What we’ve cooked up for you today…
🏦 Monster week for the ETFs
🤨 Why isn’t Bitcoin $100k?
🌊 HODL waves
💰 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 8:15am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
MONSTER WEEK FOR THE ETFs🏦
BREAKING: Bitcoin ETFs record weekly inflows of $1.83 billion
The Bitcoin ETFs just had a HUGE week.
And it also marks five straight weeks of net inflows. 🔥
In total the Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $1.83 billion last week.
With Tuesday being the standout, bringing in $886.6 million in a single day.
With inflows of $1.83 billion, the Bitcoin ETFs purchased a combined 25,729 BTC for the week.
That’s over 8x the amount of Bitcoin mined over the course of the week.
Ridiculous stuff. 🤯
With these inflows, June is off to an insane start.
During May, the Bitcoin ETFs purchased 29,592 Bitcoin.
After the first week of June, they’re already at 25,279 Bitcoin.
BlackRock is also not stopping at 300,000 Bitcoin.
The Gap between BlackRock’s IBIT and Grayscales GBTC continues to widen:
IBIT: 304,995 BTC
GBTC: 284,581 BTC
The ETFs are going to continue buying up as much Bitcoin as they can.
And June is already shaping up to be a HUGE month for them.
This all begs just one 1 question…
Why isn’t Bitcoin higher? 🤨
(more on this below 👇)
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WHY ISN’T BTC $100K? 🤨
The US Bitcoin ETFs have acquired 200% of the Bitcoin mined since launch.
And at ~$70k, the Bitcoin price is up more than 50%…
But many are asking why isn’t it up more?
In a recent Twitter thread, Charles Edwards explained exactly why Bitcoin isn’t at $100,000 yet.
Let’s break it down.
Even though the Bitcoin ETFs have purchased so much BTC, they’ve been battling long-term holder selling.
The chart below tracks the percentage of Bitcoin held by HODLers - those who have held BTC for 2+ years.
That percentage has dropped from an all-time high of 57% in December 2023 to 54% today.
That 3% comes out to ~590,000 Bitcoin, over 2.5x the amount that the ETFs purchased…
“As we can see from prior cycles, selling into price appreciation is typical behaviour, and a good amount of this will also simply be changing hands from Grayscales ETF to the new ETFs, exaggerating the decline.”
Charles also believes we haven’t seen the impact of the Bitcoin Halving yet:
“With the daily Bitcoin issuance dropping by 50% in April, we will likely see the delta between ETF consumption and Bitcoin mined widen a lot over the next year. It also takes full quarters for institutions to review, sign-off and allocate (at best). So the major ETF flows are likely still ahead of us.”
Another factor to consider is the time of year…
Market lulls during Summer are quite common - Summer is a risk off period for many major asset managers.
And US liquidity has also been flat since the March Bitcoin pump.
“When the tap turns off, risk assets have an uphill battle.”
For strong price appreciation to return, Charles believes we’ll have to wait for at least one of these to happen:
Higher average daily ETF buying
Lower long-term holder selling
Growth in US liquidity
Until then, we’ll likely be hovering around this range for a little while longer.
But make no mistake, the stars are aligning… 🌠
HODL WAVES 🌊
Today we’ll be taking a look at the classic HODL Waves metric.
This time for Ethereum.
Each coloured band shows the percentage of ETH that last moved within that time period.
As the colours get cooler, the age bands get older (blue being the oldest, representing coins having last moved 7 - 10 years ago).
This metric can also be used for short-term holders, but we’ll just be focusing on long-term holders today.
Here’s the breakdown:
6m - 12m: 14.60%
1y - 2y: 15.16%
2y - 3y: 16.41%
3y - 5y: 15.00%
5y - 7y: 10.55%
7y - 10y: 8.88%
That means that ~80.60% of the Ethereum supply has NOT moved for over 6+ months.
That’s an insane amount of the supply not moving. (even more than Bitcoin’s, percentage wise)
That only leaves 19.40% of the supply in the hands of short-term holders. (coins last moved within 6 months)
But there’s a reason why Ethereum has a larger percentage of long-term holders…
And that’s staking!
Ethereum holders are incentivised to lock up their holdings to earn rewards.
(learn more about staking here)
With the recent approval of the Ethereum ETFs, these supply dynamics are ridiculously good.
And when they launch, things could get a little crazy. 🚀
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
Bloomberg analyst calls for FOIA request into SEC's Ethereum ETF decision. Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart called for freedom of information access (FOIA) requests regarding the SEC's approval of spot Ethereum ETFs.
Ethereum leaders are stuck in a ‘massive contradiction’. Ethereum’s “elite” must choose between promoting a capitalist or socialist society, but they can’t support both.
It's Time To Go Long On Bitcoin and Shitcoins: Arthur Hayes. Bitcoin will moon as central banks pivot to lower interest rates en masse–with the Bank of England soon to follow.
Here's How Much Just $100 In Bitcoin Will Be Worth If Cathie Wood's BTC Prediction Is Correct. While the prediction is bullish, Bitcoin's 14-year CAGR is well over 220%, so it is not entirely out of the question.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)
When was the first Bitcoin Halving event? |
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: B) November 2012 🥳
The first bitcoin halving occurred in November 2012 and occurs roughly every 4 years
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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.
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