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GM to all you crypto nuts. Crypto Nutshell #498 struttin’ in… 🦃🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more intense than surviving the horrors of a quiet, post-apocalyptic world... 🤫👾 

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

• 🎲 Global game theory

• 🤔 Will we hit $100k?

• 📉 It’s the long-term holders

• 💰 And more…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

GLOBAL GAME THEORY 🎲

BREAKING: Brazil Congressman Proposes Creating a National Bitcoin Reserve

By now you’ve surely heard of Trump’s proposed national Bitcoin reserve…

One of the biggest side effects of this proposal is the FOMO from other countries that it has possibly started.

Other countries aren’t just going to sit back and let the the US have all the fun right?

And right now they also have the chance to front-run the US, as Trump doesn’t take office until January 20th.

Well…

This morning, a congressman from Brazil has officially proposed a bill to establish a strategic Bitcoin reserve in the country.

This bill, if passed, would see Brazil convert up to 5% of their national reserves into Bitcoin.

As of today, Brazil holds ~$370 billion in national reserves.

So if they allocated ~5% of this to Bitcoin, they’d be starting their strategic Bitcoin reserve with ~$18.5 billion.

(In total, MicroStrategy has spent $21.9 billion in Bitcoin purchases. If Brazil goes through with this plan, it’d be almost like adding another MicroStrategy to the game…)

The bill also refers to El Salvador’s move into Bitcoin as an example of progress.

El Salvador’s Bitcoin plan has them sitting on unrealized gains of $147.32 million.

This is just the start…

For the first time ever, the people have been given to chance to front-run countries.

That is incredible. 😎 

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WILL WE HIT $100K BEFORE 2025? 🤔

With Bitcoin dipping to ~$92,000, one question is on everyone’s mind:

Will we hit $100,000 before 2025?

According to Raoul Pal?

Yes.

Raoul Pal is a macroeconomic expert with one of the best track records in the space.

Raoul first invested in Bitcoin way back in 2013, so when it comes to crypto, he’s seen it all.

In his latest interview, he laid out where he thinks crypto is going.

First off, he nailed this recent correction:

However, Raoul believes we’ll still see $100,000 before the year ends:

Finally, Raoul laid out what he thinks we seen in 2025:

Raoul Pal has one of the best track records in crypto.

Let’s hope he’s right about a $150,000+ Bitcoin by March. 🍾

IT’S THE LONG-TERM HOLDERS 📉

Since almost breaking through $100,000 Bitcoin has since fallen ~8.7%.

This is the first major drop we’ve seen since Trump won the election.

But don’t forget:

Bitcoin was ~$66,000 on election night…

That’s a ~51% increase (to the all-time high) in a little under a month…

So you could say, this latest “crash” was somewhat expected.

In fact, bull markets often see 20% or even 30% drawdowns. (*Touch wood* This current crash isn’t even close to that level)

This biggest reason that Bitcoin couldn’t quite crack $100,000 was due to the large amount of profit-taking that took place.

Quick note, the chart below tracks the amount of realized profit and loss of the Bitcoin market:

• 🟢 Investors are selling at profits

• 🔴 Investors are selling at losses

November 21 saw profit-taking hit a record $10.5 billion.

This is the largest level of profit-taking (In dollar terms) that the Bitcoin market has ever seen.

And interestingly, a large percentage of this selling came from long-term holders. (Bitcoin held for more than 155 days)

From September to November 2024, long-term holders sold 549,119 Bitcoin. (3.85% of total LTH holdings)

This selling even outpaced the buying pressure from MicroStrategy and the Bitcoin ETFs…

So how long is this selling pressure going to last? 🤔 

Well, take a quick look at the table above.

You’ll notice that the percentage drop in holdings gets smaller every cycle.

Currently, long-term holders have sold off ~3.85% of their total holdings.

Here’s what Coindesk analyst, James Van Straten expects to happen:

Once long-term holders stop offloading, then the market can once again begin moving forward.

CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜

XRP Ledger update introduced after node outage shakes network stability. RippleX acts fast post-outage, unveiling improvements tailored to expand XRPL's tokenization capabilities.

Ethereum Blob Usage Explodes as Traders Rush to Layer 2 Solutions. The Dencun upgrade allows Layer 2 solutions to efficiently bundle transactions and post them to Ethereum.

Valour launches first-ever DOGE ETP. The ETP will trade on Sweden’s Spotlight Stock Market, offering investors' access to the world's largest memecoin.

Kraken to close NFT marketplace, shift focus to other projects. After Nov. 27, 2024, users will no longer be able to list, bid on or sell items on Kraken’s NFT marketplace; they will only be able to withdraw assets.

WHAT WE’RE READING 📚

Want to get even smarter? Check these out.

p.s. all completely FREE (one click subscribe link)

• Raremints (link) - Daily crypto news

• Bitcoin Breakdown (link) - Twice weekly Bitcoin news

• Crypto Pragmatist (link) - Actionable alpha 3x a week

• The Hustle (link) - Get Smarter on Business and Tech

• Your Next Breakthrough (link) - Personal growth with Mark Manson

• The Neuron (link) - AI trends and tools to keep you ahead

CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️

Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)

MEME CORNER 😂

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: B) Hard fork 🥳

A blockchain hard fork is a change in programming that is incompatible with the old programming. This essentially creates a new blockchain and cryptocurrency.

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HOW DID WE DO? 🤷

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NUTCASE REVIEW OF THE DAY 🔍

DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.