🄜 Wrong

PLUS: 1 Year ETF anniversary

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If you’re interested in altcoin coverage, buy recommendations & want to know what’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio, click here to join now!

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GM to all 84,827 of you. Crypto Nutshell #531 shinin’ bright… šŸŒ šŸ„œ

We're the crypto newsletter that's more adventurous than sailing beyond the reef to restore the heart of Te Fiti... šŸŒŠšŸļø

moana

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

  • šŸ¦ 1 year anniversary

  • šŸŒ Road to Valhalla

  • šŸ“‰ It’s in free fall

  • šŸ’° And more…

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market data

Prices as at 4:55am ET

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1 YEAR ANNIVERSARY šŸ¦ 

BREAKING: US Bitcoin ETFs’ first anniversary: A surge far above expectations

Bitcoin

It’s officially been one year since the the US Bitcoin ETFs began trading.

And their launch has been absolutely insane to say the least…

BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF is the best performing ETF launch of ALL TIME. (Inflation adjusted)

Let that sink in…

Bitcoin infiltrated the traditional finance world and demolished every record it possibly could.

Fidelity, Ark Invest and Bitwise also made the top 20 US ETF launches of all time.

James Seyffart

CoinShares head of research James Butterfill had this to say:

ā€œOur estimates were a much more modest $14 billion for the year, far surpassing our expectations obviously and far above pretty much every other prediction.ā€

James Butterfill

In total, the US Bitcoin ETFs has seen net inflows of ~$36 billion since they began trading.

This is despite ~$21.58 billion in outflows from Grayscale.

But check this out…

The chart below is a comparison between the inflows into the gold and Bitcoin ETFs by year.

ETF flows

It isn’t even close.

What’s next for the Bitcoin ETFs?

After surpassing everyones expectations in 2024, can the Bitcoin ETFs have another impressive year?

According to industry experts, the answer is yes…

Bitwise’s CIO, Matt Hougan, explained that second-year inflows tend to exceed first-year results in nearly every case:

ā€œThe reality is that most professional investors still are prohibited from accessing Bitcoin ETFs. That will change in 2025, and I expect 2025 flows to significantly exceed 2024’s.ā€

Matt Hougan

If that’s true, 2025 is going to be BIG. šŸ˜Ž

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This was wrong…

We messed up.

This week we opened the Crypto Nutshell Pro to an additional 25 members.

All 25 spots were taken in under 60 minutes

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See exactly what we hold

After the huge amount of feedback we received, we realised this was unfair.

We all have busy lives - not everyone can check their emails in the first 60 minutes.

To make it up to those that missed out, we’ve opened 10 more slots for the new year.

However, this is it. Once the 10 new slots are gone, they’re gone.

By signing up, here’s what you’ll get:

  • Exactly what we hold - A look into exactly what we’re holding in our portfolio

  • Altcoin Coverage - Detailed analysis on altcoins

  • Bull / Sell indicators - know exactly when we believe it’s a good time to enter and exit positions

  • Watch list - Which coins we’re keeping a close eye on

If we do open the group up again, it will be at higher prices.

See you on the inside!

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ROAD TO VALHALLA šŸŒ

Don’t be fooled by the market crash, we are still in the ā€˜Banana Zone’.

We are just in the transition period from phase 1 to phase 2.

That’s the latest message out from Raoul Pal.

rp1

To say the least, crypto has been not so fun the past week. Bitcoin is down ~5% and most other coins are down at least ~10%.

However, don’t fear. Outlined in his most recent post, Raoul believes this correction won’t last long.

First off, Raoul breaks down how ā€˜Banana Zone Phase 1’ was the break-out period from the election, until now:

ā€œBanana Zone Phase 1 was the break out last year, now the consolidation (like the 2016/17 consolidation after phase 1). This won't last long..ā€

Raoul Pal

Next, Raoul believes we will transition into ā€˜Banana Zone Phase 2’ - the ā€˜Banana Singularity’:

ā€œNext up Banana Zone Phase 2 - The "Banana Singularity" (Alts szn) when everything goes up (followed by a bigger consolidation)."

Raoul Pal

Finally, Raoul predicts the the bull-run will end with ā€˜Banana Zone Phase 3’:

ā€œBanana Zone Phase 3 when the core winners explode onto make much higher highs (concentration phase). That is my roadmap to Valhalla. Let's see...ā€

Raoul Pal

Raoul’s predictions for this cycle so far have been spot on.

If he’s right (which we think he is) this correction will be short lived.

True altcoin season is just about to begin. 🌊

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IT’S IN FREE FALL šŸ“‰

Today we’ll be checking in on the amount of Ethereum available for sale on exchanges.

Here’s how to interpret this metric:

  • Decreasing exchange balances: Bullish indicator as it signals a shift towards long-term holding šŸ‚

  • Increasing exchange balances: Bearish indicator as coins being transferred to exchanges are more likely to be sold 🐻

onchain

Currently there is 12,270,243 Ethereum available for sale on exchanges.

That’s ~10.23% of the entire circulating supply.

And here’s the interesting part…

As a percentage, there’s even less Ethereum on exchanges compared to Bitcoin.

As of today, 13.98% of the circulating Bitcoin supply is sitting on an exchange.

Over the course of 2024, Ethereum exchange balances decreased by 1,695,073 ETH.

That’s $5.55 billion at today’s prices!

As Ethereum continues to leave exchanges, it signals that investors have a preference for long-term holding.

And with ~89.77% of the supply not sitting on an exchange…

That’s a big deal.

Put simply, there just isn’t that much Ethereum available for sale right now.

CRACKING CRYPTO 🄜

Thailand seizes 996 Bitcoin miners after busting local operation stealing electricity. Thai authorities expose digital asset trading firm JIT Co. for bypassing millions in power costs with altered meters.

Bitcoin Funding Rates Briefly Went Negative, Usually Marks a Local Bottom. Glassnode data shows that the perpetual funding rate went negative for the first time in 2025.

CFPB proposes crypto firms refund users for funds lost to hacks. A proposed CFPB rule could allow crypto users to have protections similar to those of US bank account holders by considering the definition of ā€œfunds.ā€

Standard Chartered to offer crypto custody services in EU with new Luxembourg license. Standard Chartered has received a license in Luxembourg to offer crypto custody services through a new entity.

WHAT WE’RE READING šŸ“š

Want to get even smarter? Check these out.

p.s. all completely FREE (one click subscribe link)

  • Raremints (link) - Daily crypto news

  • Bitcoin Breakdown (link) - Twice weekly Bitcoin news

  • Techpresso (link) - Daily tech news and insights

  • The Hustle (link) - Get Smarter on Business and Tech

  • Your Next Breakthrough (link) - Personal growth with Mark Manson

  • The Neuron (link) - AI trends and tools to keep you ahead

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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? āœļø

Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after ā€œMeme Cornerā€)

What hash function does Bitcoin use?

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MEME CORNER šŸ˜‚

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

meme

Trivia Answer: C) SHA-256 🄳

The SHA-256 function that Bitcoin uses is short for ā€œSecure Hash Algorithmā€ and was designed by the United States National Security Agency (NSA)

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.

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