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BREAKING: Bitcoin rises above $64,000 as big AI compute deals continue to roll in

The Strait of Hormuz is closing again, and this time the oil market believes it.

Five cargo ships passed the strait on Saturday, against thirty-one the weekend before.

Brent crude jumped almost 3% to nearly $91 a barrel.

The 30-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.29%, its highest since 2007.

The US-Iran truce hit its deadline this week with no deal, and reports of an extension are still unconfirmed.

Either way, the blockade throttling the oil hasn't moved.

Bitcoin climbed anyway, up from a $62,800 low to above $64,000.

Don't read that as immunity.

Our running view is that Bitcoin trades on rates and the dollar, not on war fear, and the channel that matters runs oil into inflation into a Fed that won't cut.

That's the channel a closed strait reopens.

A week ago, when the same strait fears flared, Bitcoin didn't shrug them off, it fell alongside stocks as crude spiked.

The reason it's rising instead of falling today is thinner than it looks.

The dollar slipped to a two-month low, stocks caught a bounce, and Bitcoin rode both.

That support is soft…

A dollar sliding while yields hit their highest since 2007 is the market smelling inflation, and inflation is what keeps the Fed from cutting.

If the blockade holds and crude keeps climbing, it firms the dollar and the yields together, and the $62,000 to $66,000 band Bitcoin has held for five weeks is what gives.

Bitcoin never reacted to this as a war story.

The damage, if it comes, arrives through oil and rates, and that's the door the blockade just opened. 🚀

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Raoul Pal just made a call he says he doesn't make lightly. The way we measure the entire economy is about to break.

Pal is a former Goldman Sachs macro trader and founder of Real Vision.

Here's what he posted:

His reasoning starts with what he calls the magic formula. An economy comes down to how many people are working, what they produce, and what they can borrow on top.

That's the whole story, and it's held for centuries.

But look at what's entering the equation now. Robots. AI. Energy density. Compute efficiency.

Each one racing straight up an exponential curve, and none of them fit inside a measure built for human labour.

This is the Economic Singularity, and his timeline is aggressive. Not some far-off sci-fi moment. Something we live through inside the next five years.

Why it matters for crypto: when output decouples from human labour and compounds exponentially, the old financial plumbing can't keep up.

You need rails built for machine-speed value transfer, and a monetary asset that can't be debased by a system printing frantically to prop up the old model.

The measure is breaking. Position for the economy that replaces it. 📐

Back to the ETF flow data, our weekly read on institutional appetite.

Green means money flowing in, red means it's heading out.

And back to red.

Bitcoin ETFs bled $385 million last week, red on four of five sessions, handing back nearly half of the prior week's $865 million.

The flows have flipped direction three weeks running.

Red, then a big green, now red again.

The selling was broad this time, with Grayscale, Fidelity and ARK all leaking and IBIT giving back $79 million a week after carrying the whole complex.

Ethereum lost its cover too.

After four straight green weeks it slipped to a $3 million outflow, its first red print in over a month, though only barely.

Add up the last three weeks and the whole Bitcoin complex sits just $418 million to the good, with a single green week carrying every cent of it. 📊

Prediction Markets Give the Fed 74% Odds of Standing Pat in September. Polymarket, Kalshi, and Myriad traders agree that unchanged rates are the likeliest outcome.

Compound bets $52 million, new leadership team in switch to institutional focus. The DeFi lender is committing $52 million as it pivots from lost retail activity toward institutions.

Binance to plan UK relaunch with FCA license application: Report. Binance reportedly plans to seek an FCA licence after being barred from regulated U.K. activity since 2021.

Tokenized equities triple market share as Ondo, Binance and xStocks dominate. Tokenized stocks’ market share has reached about 15%, with roughly $2.8 billion in value.

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