GM to the winners club. Crypto Nutshell Pro #102 keepin' watch… 🦉🥜

If you’re new here, each Crypto Nutshell Pro is broken down into 2 sections:

The goal?

Help you understand exactly where we are in the cycle.

By now, you should have read through the following page: Read This First

(Click the button at the bottom of the page to continue the welcome series - there are 4 pages in total to read)

These give you a broad overview of the Crypto Nutshell Pro Portfolio and how we’re positioning for the rest of this cycle.

And in case you missed last week's Nutshell Pro, you can check that out here.

Now, let’s jump in…

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Bitcoin's at $80,600, down 1% on the week.

Ethereum's at $2,363, down 2.5%.

Last week we said a falling real yield would make Bitcoin's toughest competition easier to beat.

This week the real yield hit its lowest in a month, the 10-year Treasury yield dropped under 5%, and Bitcoin still finished lower.

Yields can fall for two very different reasons, and this week they fell for the one that doesn't help Bitcoin.

Telling the two apart is the most useful thing a Bitcoin holder can do before Wednesday's Fed decision.

The week started well, with almost $1.1 billion going into US spot Bitcoin ETFs from Monday to Wednesday, including $665 million into BlackRock's IBIT on Monday alone, its biggest day since October 2025.

Bitcoin climbed to about $84,800 by Wednesday night.

Thursday undid it.

Tesla's overnight results showed a 43% drop in profit, Meta sank after missing profit forecasts, oil jumped above $111 and President Trump said the US wasn't negotiating with Iran.

The Nasdaq fell 2.6%, its worst day since June, and money ran to the safest places it could find: Treasuries, and steady stocks like Walmart, Procter & Gamble and McDonald's.

The 10-year yield fell 19 basis points in one session, the biggest one-day drop since Silicon Valley Bank failed in March 2023, per CoinDesk.

(A basis point is a hundredth of a percentage point, so that took the yield from about 5.15% to 4.95%.)

Bitcoin fell about 4% to around $81,000 alongside the stocks, and the ETFs handed back $636 million, their biggest one-day outflow since June 25 by Farside's count, then lost about $138 million more on Friday.

On Friday, Brent crude closed near $117, its highest close since late April, and gold slipped under $4,000 an ounce for the first time since July.

From Friday close to Friday close, the week's winners were oil, bonds and the defensive stocks, while gold lost 4.1%, silver 5.8% and the Nasdaq 100 0.8%, and Bitcoin slipped just 0.4%.

The real yield, what a 10-year Treasury pays after expected inflation, fell to 2.64% on Thursday, from 2.95% on October 5.

That's the drop we said would give ETF buyers a reason to come back, and for three days they did.

So why did the bond rally Bitcoin's been waiting for leave it below what the average ETF buyer paid?

It comes down to who was buying those bonds, and what they were scared of…