GM to all of you nutcases. It’s Crypto Nutshell #909 rowin‘ on in…🚣🥜

We're the crypto newsletter that's more lucid than an architect checking the totem before the hallway starts folding… 🌀🎲

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

What’s in the Crypto Nutshell Portfolio?

BREAKING: Bitcoin holds near $64,000 as US-Iran talks progress but crypto sits out the rally

Stocks threw a party this weekend, but Bitcoin didn't show up.

Asian equities climbed, tech ripped on another wave of AI optimism, and oil slid below $80 as the US and Iran agreed a roadmap toward a final peace deal.

Textbook risk-on conditions.

And crypto just… sat there.

Bitcoin's stuck around $64,000 to start the week, down about 2.6% over seven days, still drifting below where it began June. The asset that usually leads risk higher is the one getting left at the door.

The rest of the crypto market was a mixed bag. Solana managed a 3.7% weekly gain and Ether held flat near $1,733, but the losers ran deeper.

BNB and XRP slid, Dogecoin dropped 6.5%, and June's darling HYPE has cooled off.

When the thing that's supposed to move with stocks refuses to follow them up, that's usually a tell.

And the small bounce Bitcoin did scrape together looks thin under the hood.

Traders pointed out that Binance spot is actively selling into the move, which means the grind higher is mostly perps and leverage, not real buyers stepping in.

One trader called BTC pumping while geopolitical tension rises "very suspicious." Another flagged that six of the last six Mondays marked a local high right before a leg lower.

Not exactly a confident setup…

It also doesn't help that the deal crypto's been waiting on is already fraying. Iran's threatening to slam the Strait of Hormuz shut again, Trump's firing off fresh strike threats on Truth Social, and the overhang that signed agreement was meant to clear is still hanging right there.

So this isn't strength.

We’re in a holding pattern on borrowed, leveraged legs, while the markets Bitcoin usually rides keep climbing without it.

The 60-day roadmap is the thing to watch now.

If it holds and crypto finally reconnects with the risk-on mood, $64K turns into a base.

If it cracks, June's lows near $60K are a short trip away. 🚀

Wall Street hijacked the stock market 200 years ago. 

Now in 2026, they're coming for YOUR digital assets.

Bitcoin was supposed to be peer-to-peer. No banks. No middlemen.

Not anymore.

BlackRock owns more Bitcoin than most countries. 

Fidelity's ETF hit $10 billion. 

JPMorgan called Bitcoin a "fraud" — now they run billions in tokenized assets. 

They ARE crypto now.

Every time you hit "Buy" on Coinbase, you're trading at their prices that they've already positioned themselves for the biggest returns. You're fighting over scraps.

It's the 2008 playbook. 

Wall Street sold mortgage-backed securities to retail, then shorted them and made billions while people lost their homes.

But there's a way to operate outside their system.

Tan Gera, ex-Wall Street banker and CFA Charterholder, walked away after discovering their two-tier system. 

Now, his 35-person research team helps 3,000+ investors access opportunities before Wall Street marks them up 100x.

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For educational purposes only. Results will vary. DM Intelligence LLC is not liable for losses.  

In 3 lines, Matt Hougan just reframed the entire conversation everyone in crypto is having right now.

Hougan is the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise Asset Management. And his latest tweet cuts straight through the noise of the current drawdown.

Here's what he posted:

Read it again, because it lands hard.

Everyone is obsessing over the bottom. Is $60k the low? Is it $55k? Did we already bottom? Hougan's point is that this is the wrong question entirely.

If you believe Bitcoin is going to $1 million over the long run, then arguing over whether you got in at $40k or $60k is noise. The difference between those 2 entries, a number that feels enormous today, rounds to nothing on the path to 7 figures.

This is the same logic the smartest long-term voices keep repeating. Raoul Pal saying the original bet left untouched makes 100x. Saylor calling 7 months a blink. Fred Krueger pointing to the assets that can't be replicated.

The trader's brain fixates on the perfect entry. The investor's brain zooms out and asks where this actually ends.

One question keeps you paralysed on the sidelines. The other gets you positioned.

Stop asking where the floor is. Start asking how high the ceiling goes. 🤔

Let’s kick off the week with a look at the Bitcoin HODL Waves - one of the clearest snapshots of market conviction.

Each coloured band represents the percentage of Bitcoin that last moved within a specific time frame.

The cooler the colour, the older the coins - with purple showing Bitcoin that hasn’t moved in 10+ years.

Today we’ll be focusing on long-term holders (LTHs) - defined as coins held for more than six months.

Here’s how the Bitcoin supply breakdown looks today compared to five weeks ago:

TL;DR: 79.78% of all Bitcoin has not moved in over six months. 🔒

Up from 79.24% two weeks ago. A 0.54% gain - and it nudges long-term dormancy within a whisker of 80% for the first time since October 2024.

The 6-12 month band did the heavy lifting again. After pausing last period, it ticked back up to 18.26% - the single biggest move on the board. Coins are still crossing the six-month line into long-term territory faster than they're leaving it.

The 1-2 year and 3-5 year bands climbed alongside it, and the 10+ year base inched up to 17.60% - more ancient supply going nowhere.

A few cohorts dipped, but barely. The 2-3, 5-7 and 7-10 year bands each shed a few hundredths of a percent…

Add it up and 79.78% of all Bitcoin now sits dormant for six months or more. We've been knocking on 80% for two editions straight - and this print has us close enough to touch it.

Stronger hands keep quietly absorbing the supply. The trend hasn't blinked. 💎

Inception Labs’ Mercury 2 AI Beats Google’s DiffusionGemma at Its Own Game. Decrypt says the diffusion-style model trades word-by-word generation for parallel denoising, making it a useful AI-infrastructure sidebar rather than a crypto-native lead.

Are perps swaps? A quick look at that CME suit: State of Crypto. CME Group sued the CFTC over how the agency approved Kalshi’s first U.S. perpetual futures product.

Japanese corporate pension fund plans 1% crypto allocation: Nikkei. A Japanese corporate pension fund with about 1,200 participating small and medium-sized businesses plans to allocate roughly 1% of its assets to crypto.

The Funding: Is the bitcoin bottom in? Crypto funds weigh in. The Block’s fund-manager check suggests many investors still think BTC could move lower and are not expecting a strong rally yet.

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Trivia Answer: A common token standard for fungible tokens on Ethereum and compatible networks 🥳

ERC-20 is the standard many Ethereum-based tokens use so wallets, exchanges, and apps can recognise and handle them consistently.

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.