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GM to all 25,148 of you. Crypto Nutshell #169 makin’ waves. 🐋 🥜

We’re the crypto newsletter that's less eerie than investigating paranormal phenomena with a team of FBI agents... 👽🛸

What we’ve cooked up for you today…

• 💰 Bitcoin ETF updates

• 🔮 3 potential bull run scenarios

• 🤔 Profit taking time?

• 💰 And more…

MARKET WATCH ⚖️

Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section

BITCOIN ETF UPDATES 💰

Breaking: Fidelity and SEC meet to discuss spot Bitcoin ETF application

Fidelity (3rd largest asset manager in the world) and the SEC recently met to discuss further details of its Bitcoin ETF application.

The meeting focused on a presentation which broke down the proposed ETF workflows.

Can you feel the hype surrounding the approval of these ETFs increasing?

Just last week BlackRock met with the SEC to discuss key technical details.

All ETF issuers are currently in advanced discussions with the SEC, a sign of progress towards the eventual approval.

Only 31 days left until January 10th… ⏰ 

In other ETF news, it has been revealed that VanEck’s Bitcoin ETF ticker will be $HODL. This is a departure from the traditional style tickers we have seen from the likes of BlackRock.

Embracing crypto culture is a clever move by VanEck. This differentiates them from other ETF issuers and the crypto community will get behind it.

List of tickers so far:

• BlackRock: $IBTC

• VanEck: $HODL

• Fidelity: $FBTC

• Invesco: $BTCO

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3 SCENARIOS FOR THE BULL RUN 🔮 

Macroeconomic expert Raoul Pal rarely gives out crypto price predictions.

However in his latest interview, he conceded. He laid out 3 scenarios he sees playing out for the Bitcoin price over 2024 & 2025. 

Raoul broke them down into percentage chance of happening:

Scenario 1 - 60%

Crypto has a very traditional cycle. Bitcoin is pushed up to between $100,000 - $200,000 in 2024 / 2025.

Scenario 2 - 20%

The coming cycle is something much bigger than everyone expects. We see larger adoption globally & capital coming into the space exceeds expectations. Bitcoin goes to $200,000+.

Scenario 3 - 20%

We get a front loaded cycle due to anticipation surrounding the Bitcoin ETF & halving. It’s much shorter and more violent than expected & doesn’t extend past 2024.

Raoul also added that if investors are chasing returns, it’s time to look at Ethereum:

Raoul’s outlook in a nutshell?

PROFIT TAKING TIME? 🤔

Two days ago we established that the majority of both short and long term holders are in profit. Checkout the full breakdown here.

• Long-Term Holders (LTHs): 84% are in profit

• Short-Term Holders (STHs): 95% are in profit

Today we’ll be taking a look at what these cohorts are actually doing. Is there a notable shift in profit taking going on?

To do this we’ll be taking a look at the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). This metric simply tracks if the price sold is greater than the price paid. 

Values greater than 1 indicate coins are selling at a profit. 🤑

The average coin is currently locking in a profit across all cohorts:

• 🟠 Market SOPR: 1.09 (+9% profit on average)

• 🔴 Short-term holder SOPR: 1.01 (+1% profit on average)

• 🔵 Long-Term Holder SOPR: 1.46 (+46% profit on average)

So what can we take away from this data?

Well, we know that the majority of Bitcoin holders are currently in profit. And we’ve seen an increase in actual profit taking by all cohorts.

This is a classic bull signal.

A sustained increase in profit taking, matched with sufficient demand to absorb the distributed supply. 😎

Just goes to show that this current rally definitely has some strength behind it.

Just the beginning.

CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜

WHAT WE’RE READING ✍️

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MEME CORNER 😂

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: D) Namecoin 🥳

The first altcoin, Namecoin (NMC), was released in April 2011 three years after Bitcoin.

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.