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- 🥜 $50 Billion is coming for Bitcoin
🥜 $50 Billion is coming for Bitcoin
PLUS: Ethereum set to pump?
GM to all 13,779 of you. Crypto Nutshell zoomin’ in. 🏃♀️🥜
The crypto newsletter that's as astonishing as discovering you're the last of a powerful alien race and must learn to control your powers... 🦸🚀
Today, we’ll be going over:
😂 SEC handed another L
💰 $50 Billion is coming for Bitcoin
🤔 Ethereum set to pump?
🤑 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 6:30am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
SEC HANDED ANOTHER L 😂
BREAKING: SEC’s Motion to Appeal Loss in Ripple Case Denied
Judge Analisa Torres rejects SEC’s appeal 👩⚖️
Back in July, judge Torres ruled that the sale of XRP on public exchanges DID follow federal securities laws.
The SEC was hoping to appeal this decision. For the past 2 years the SEC has remained firm on its view that digital tokens ARE securities.
On October 3rd, judge Torres issued her decision against the appeal.
Torres found there was no "substantial ground for difference of opinion". Basically, the SEC had no evidence to overturn Torres's previous ruling.
Another huge blow to the SEC’s efforts to control the industry…
This news quickly made the rounds on Twitter which resulted in XRP’s price shooting up 5% 📈
The initial ruling was seen as a HUGE W in the crypto world. The denial of the SEC’s appeal is another win for crypto.
Daniel Stabile from Winston & Strawn (law firm representing Ripple) had this to say:
"This victory is another example of a court halting the SEC's efforts of regulation by enforcement"
Want to read more? Click here.
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$50 BILLION COMING FOR BITCOIN 🤑
Greg Foss is an ex-hedge fund founder and quantitative analyst. He has decades of experience in the world of modelling and finance.
His prediction? $50 billion dollars is coming for Bitcoin in the next 6 months. 😳
This is over 10x more than Michael Saylor through MicroStrategy has bought.
In an interview alongside Bitcoin analyst James Lavish, Greg broke down why.
The explanation is simple. Canada, where Greg is from, already has a spot Bitcoin ETF. Canada is roughly ~10% the size of the U.S.A.
Following this logic, a spot Bitcoin ETF in the United States should attract 10x the volume as Canada.
Canada’s spot ETF saw ~$5 billion flow into Bitcoin. Thus we should see a U.S spot Bitcoin ETF bring in ~$50 billion.
Bitcoin analyst James Lavish, disagreed. He thought that was a low-ball. 😳
“I would say that's even pessimistic. The U.S market has buyers from all over the world that are focused on holding assets here in US dollars.”
James isn’t alone either. Eric Balchunas, the senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, predicts a spot Bitcoin ETF will bring in ~$150 billion to Bitcoin.
To top off the interview, Greg laid out some juicy Bitcoin price predictions.
He subscribes to the Schrödinger Coin Model of Bitcoin. Meaning Bitcoin only has two possible outcomes:
It will fail and is worthless ❌
It will succeed and capture the monetary premium of traditional stores of value 💰
Building these assumptions into a model, here’s what you get:
Using these models, we get Greg Foss’s Bitcoin predictions. He believes that the current fair value of Bitcoin is ~$500,000+ and it’s on its way to $2,000,000+.
You can check out the full Schrödinger Coin Model and the assumptions it’s built on here 🔗
ETHEREUM SET TO PUMP? 🤔
Ethereum average transaction fees have been declining since July 2023.
You may be thinking low transaction fees are good for Ethereum annnd they kiiind of are, let’s dig in.
Transaction fees are core to Ethereum. Average transaction fees are the amount users must pay to confirm their transactions. A portion of these fees are then "burned" to reduce the supply.
During periods of high traffic, Ethereum has a "pay-to-win" mechanic. You can simply pay higher transaction fees than anyone else and you'll jump the queue. When more and more people do this, the average transaction fee increases.
During periods of low traffic there’s no need to pay more than normal to get your transactions confirmed. This leads to a dip in average transaction fees.
So that’s how we can use this metric to gauge the level of activity on the Ethereum blockchain.
High fees = high activity 📈
Low fees = low activity 📉
Taking a look at the chart above, the average transaction fee is currently at $2.19.
This is the lowest transaction fees have been since December 2022 (depths of the bear market). It may be a coincidence, but this was exactly when Ethereum found its floor price in the wake of FTX.
On-chain analysts from Santiment have made an interesting conclusion from this data...
The theory goes that when network fees are this low, transactions are much more affordable. These affordable transactions lead to increased utility. The increased utility results in greater network activity.
This snowball effect kicks in and we see the price of Ethereum begin to rebound.
Exactly like December 2022…
Wishful thinking? Maybe. 🤷
Keep in mind this is purely speculation. Just because it happened in the past doesn’t mean it’ll happen again… unless… 🚀
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
WHAT WE’RE READING ✍️
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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
When did Litecoin first launch?
A) October 2011
B) July 2015
C) January 2009
D) July 2017
Find out the answer at the bottom of “Meme Corner” below 😀
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: A) October 2011 🥳
Litecoin launched on October 13, 2011 to be “the silver to Bitcoin’s gold,”
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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.
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