- Crypto Nutshell
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- 🥜 Ahead of schedule
🥜 Ahead of schedule
PLUS: Rate cuts are coming
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GM to all you crypto nuts. Crypto Nutshell #431 plottin’ the course… 🗺️ 🥜
We're the crypto newsletter that's more exhilarating than a duel in the skies... ✈️🏆
What we’ve cooked up for you today…
🏦 The US jobs report
🚂 Ahead of schedule…
📈 Cycle check
💰 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 4:10am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
THE US JOBS REPORT 🏦
BREAKING: Bitcoin price reacts to US jobs report and declining unemployment rate
On Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics released it’s US jobs report for August…
And spoiler alert, it was disappointing to say the least.
The release of this report was the first date we marked as crucial to keep an eye on for September. (checkout the full article here)
In August, US employers added 142,000 jobs which is lower than the expected 160,000.
However…
It’s still better than July’s report which was revised down from 114,000 to 89,000.
The unemployment rate fell from 4.3% in July to 4.2% in August which analysts expected. (a small glimmer of hope)
And as we warned, the markets began to “crash” once this news was released.
Bitcoin was down 5%, falling to a low of ~$53,000.
Whilst Ethereum fell 6% to a low of ~$2,160.
This report all but guarantees we’ll see interest rate cuts this month. (Fed’s decision day is the 18th of September)
The question now is, will it be a 0.50% or 0.25% cut?
Analysts are torn…
The numbers aren’t bad enough to lock in a 50bps cut, but they also aren’t good enough to settle for 25bps.
All that matters now is that rate cuts are coming.
And they’re coming soon.
Moving on...
The next important date to look out for is right around the corner.
Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are set to debate each other September 10th.
Stay tuned for that spicy update… 🌶️
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AHEAD OF SCHEDULE 🚂
Bitcoin’s bull-run is still intact.
In fact, it’s ahead of schedule.
That’s the latest out from Zero Hedge.
If you haven’t heard of Zero Hedge, they’re a financial blog founded by a group of Wall Street professionals. (They also post using the alias of Tyler Durden, from Fight Club)
Often posting contrarian takes, they’ve grown an audience of 1.9 million followers for 1 reason:
They’re often right.
In their latest post, they put the recent crypto crash into perspective.
Their take?
This sell-off has nothing to do with crypto:
“My view is that this entire selloff in crypto is 100% a macro induced liquidity crisis and globally contagious margin call. It has very little (nothing?) to do with Bitcoin, it has everything to do with a few chickens coming home to roost and a mad scramble for solvency.”
Whilst previous crypto sell-offs have been because of crypto, such as China banning Bitcoin mining, or the collapse of FTX, this one does not.
“Bitcoin simply is the highest performing asset in absolute terms of all time. At the end of the day, I’d be worried in the short term if there was something specific to the Bitcoin or crypto markets driving this pullback.”
In fact, there’s actually some very constructive dynamics unfolding:
1. The Bitcoin ETFs are not selling
Many thought institutions & ETF buyers would be the first to dump their Bitcoin positions at signs of trouble. This has not been the case with institutions showing incredibly strong hands.
“Despite price volatility, ETF holders have shown resilience, with no major outflows since March.”
2. Bitcoin Miners are beginning to accumulate
For the first time in 2024, Bitcoin Miners have gone from selling their bitcoin to cover costs, to accumulating:
So where does this leave us?
Well, to put the recent sell-off into perspective, compared to previous cycles, we’re right on track:
“Finally, we’re pretty well in line with previous halving cycle years… In my mind, the major parabolic “up-only” move for Bitcoin is still ahead, perhaps dead ahead with the remainder of the cryptos to follow thereafter.”
We think on-chain Bitcoin analyst, Dylan LeClair, put it best:
In a nutshell?
Don’t panic - the best is yet to come. (more on this in the next section)
CYCLE CHECK 📈
There’s a lot of fear in the market right now…
People are even questioning if the bull-run’s over…
But it’s times like these that it’s always worth taking a look at prior cycles and seeing where we are at.
(Even though history isn’t a perfect indicator of future performance, it’s still a valuable tool)
So today, we’ll be comparing previous Bitcoin cycles from market bottoms.
Here’s how to interpret the chart above:
🟡 2017 cycle
🟠 2021 cycle
🔴 2024 cycle
⬛️ Black areas indicate all-time highs
And as you can see, funnily enough this cycle is performing almost identically to the 2017 and 2021 cycles at this point in time. (relatively)
So based off of prior cycles…
And contrary to what the market may feel like right now…
There really isn’t anything to worry about.
On-chain X analyst @TheRationalRoot summed it up perfectly:
“Max fear, and we are here”
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
Chamber of Progress demands clarity on crypto from presidential hopefuls. Chamber of Progress has urged the presidential debate moderators to ask for crypto clarity as 18 million Americans await candidate positions.
El Salvador marks 3 years of Bitcoin adoption with $31M profit. El Salvador is celebrating its third Bitcoin adoption anniversary, with over $31 million in profit on its Bitcoin holdings.
Block Inc. overtakes Coinbase in market capitalization as Barclays revises price target. After six months, Block Inc. has overtaken Coinbase in market capitalization following a bearish week for cryptocurrencies across the board.
Tether addresses $102 million agricultural investment: land is "crucial asset class". Tether's recent investment in an Argentinian agricultural giant complements its portfolio of gold and bitcoin investments, the company said.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
Want to get even smarter? Check these out.
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Crypto Pragmatist (link) - Actionable alpha 3x a week
The Hustle (link) - Get Smarter on Business and Tech
Your Next Breakthrough (link) - Personal growth with Mark Manson
The Neuron (link) - AI trends and tools to keep you ahead
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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
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What is the ticker for VanEck's Bitcoin ETF? |
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: B) HODL 🥳
VanEck’s Bitcoin ETF trades under the stock ticker HODL
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