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What we’ve cooked up for you today…

• 🏦 Putting the ETFs into context

• 📈 What’s next for Bitcoin

• 💪 Supply breakdown

• 💰 And more…

MARKET WATCH ⚖️

Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section

PUTTING THE ETFs INTO CONTEXT 🏦

BREAKING: Bitcoin ETFs record 5th straight outflow day

It’s been a rough week for the Bitcoin ETFs…

Yesterday marked the fifth outflow day in a row with $4.3 million leaving the ETFs. (to be fair it is one of the smallest net outflows we’ve seen)

So far this week, Grayscale has experienced net outflows of $412 million. With $90 million in outflows yesterday.

Here’s yesterdays breakdown:

1. Fidelity - FBTC: $37.4 million 🥇 

2. BlackRock - IBIT: $18.8 million 🥈 

3. Bitwise - BITB: $12.8 million 🥉 

Does this mean that the ETFs are “over”? 🤷‍♂️

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas weighed in on the situation.

Here’s what he had to say:

1. Normal for an ETF category to “cool off” after an extremely successful launch - especially with a 12% drawdown

2. So far this week has seen $264 in net outflows - that’s only ~2% of net inflows since launch and ~0.4% of total assets

3. Net outflows are driven entirely by Grayscale - remove GBTC and things are still looking crazy good

4. Despite the recent 12% dip, Bitcoin is still up 144% since BlackRock’s filing last June and 54% YTD

For these reasons, Balchunas believes the “it’s so over” ETF narrative is being blown WAY out of proportion.

And by the way…

BlackRock has extended it’s inflow streak to 67 days. Which is a “minor miracle” according to Balchunas.

So no, the ETFs are by no means “over”. 😂

In fact, according to insiders such as Matt Hougan, they’re only just getting started…

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WHAT’S NEXT FOR BITCOIN? 📈

Ignore the short-term price action.

Just focus on the long-term.

That’s the latest message out from Anthony Scaramucci.

For those not familiar with Scaramucci, he’s a well-known American investor.

He’s the founder of SkyBridge Capital, an investment firm with over $2 billion under management.

Speaking with CNBC, Scaramucci was asked numerous questions regarding Bitcoin’s status as an inflation hedge & store of value.

Here’s what he had to say:

With this in mind, Scaramucci explained:

And based off this chart posted by Raoul Pal, we should be at 1 billion users by ~2025.

In the short-term, we could still see 10 - 15% drawdowns.

But Scaramucci is more focused on the long-term. (as we all should be with Bitcoin)

If you’re willing to endure the volatile price swings, no one has even lost money in Bitcoin holding it for 4+ years.

And here’s a chart to back that claim up.

Time in the market beats timing the market…

SUPPLY BREAKDOWN 💪

It’s time to check in on the supply of Bitcoin last active 1+ years ago.

We love this chart. It’s so simple to understand and it’s extremely useful.

It categorises coins based on how long it’s been since they last moved on-chain. (as a percentage of the circulating supply)

• Metrics rising: long-term holders are accumulating coins 📈

• Metrics declining: long-term holders are selling coins 📉

Taking a look at the chart below you’ll notice significant dips in these metrics when Bitcoin reaches new all-time highs. (especially with the 1+ year age band)

Here’s the breakdown for each cohort (compared to what it was 2 weeks ago):

• 🔴 Supply last active 1+ years ago: 65.79% (down from 65.84%)

• 🟠 Supply last active 2+ years ago: 54.32% (down from 54.52%)

• 🟢 Supply last active 3+ years ago: 45.21% (up from 44.86%)

• 🔵 Supply last active 5+ years ago: 31.17% (down from 31.21%)

Over the last two weeks, the 1+, 2+ and 5+ age bands experienced a slight decrease.

BUT, the 3+ age band slightly increased…

With Bitcoin’s recent price action, some long-term holders have decided to lock in some profits.

Which is perfectly normal by the way.

Take a look at the 1yr+ age band 🔴, it always dips as Bitcoin’s price increases throughout the bull run.

(the younger age bands are more price sensitive)

However, the 3yr+ and 5yr+ age bands are essentially still at their all-time highs.

With Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high & all the selling out of Grayscale, these numbers are insane.

More & more investors are here for the long haul. Conviction in Bitcoin still extremely high.

CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜

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WHAT WE’RE READING 📚

Want to get even smarter? Check these out.

p.s. all completely FREE

• Bitcoin Breakdown (link) - Weekly Bitcoin recap

• The Hustle (link) - Get Smarter on Business and Tech

• The Business Academy (link) - Unique investment opportunities

• Wild Golf (link) - Twice weekly Golf insights & tips

CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️

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MEME CORNER 😂

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Trivia Answer: B) HODL 🥳 

VanEck embraced the crypto meme by using $HODL as their ticker symbol.

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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.