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What weβve cooked up for you todayβ¦
π¦ Putting the ETFs into context
π Whatβs next for Bitcoin
πͺ Supply breakdown
π° And moreβ¦

MARKET WATCH βοΈ

Prices as at 8:00am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section

PUTTING THE ETFs INTO CONTEXT π¦
BREAKING: Bitcoin ETFs record 5th straight outflow day

Itβs been a rough week for the Bitcoin ETFsβ¦
Yesterday marked the fifth outflow day in a row with $4.3 million leaving the ETFs. (to be fair it is one of the smallest net outflows weβve seen)
So far this week, Grayscale has experienced net outflows of $412 million. With $90 million in outflows yesterday.
Hereβs yesterdays breakdown:
Fidelity - FBTC: $37.4 million π₯
BlackRock - IBIT: $18.8 million π₯
Bitwise - BITB: $12.8 million π₯

Does this mean that the ETFs are βoverβ? π€·ββοΈ
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas weighed in on the situation.
Hereβs what he had to say:
Normal for an ETF category to βcool offβ after an extremely successful launch - especially with a 12% drawdown
So far this week has seen $264 in net outflows - thatβs only ~2% of net inflows since launch and ~0.4% of total assets
Net outflows are driven entirely by Grayscale - remove GBTC and things are still looking crazy good
Despite the recent 12% dip, Bitcoin is still up 144% since BlackRockβs filing last June and 54% YTD
For these reasons, Balchunas believes the βitβs so overβ ETF narrative is being blown WAY out of proportion.
And by the wayβ¦
BlackRock has extended itβs inflow streak to 67 days. Which is a βminor miracleβ according to Balchunas.

So no, the ETFs are by no means βoverβ. π
In fact, according to insiders such as Matt Hougan, theyβre only just getting startedβ¦

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WHATβS NEXT FOR BITCOIN? π
Ignore the short-term price action.
Just focus on the long-term.
Thatβs the latest message out from Anthony Scaramucci.

For those not familiar with Scaramucci, heβs a well-known American investor.
Heβs the founder of SkyBridge Capital, an investment firm with over $2 billion under management.
Speaking with CNBC, Scaramucci was asked numerous questions regarding Bitcoinβs status as an inflation hedge & store of value.
Hereβs what he had to say:
βBitcoin is on an adoption curve. If you go back to Web 1, Bitcoin is sort of at the 1999 point in the spectrum, so just imagine where we went from Web 1 to where we are today.β
With this in mind, Scaramucci explained:
βYou wonβt see this be an inflation hedge or store of value until you get over 1 billion users. So right now itβs going to be way more volatile than people like until we get to that adoption level.β
And based off this chart posted by Raoul Pal, we should be at 1 billion users by ~2025.

In the short-term, we could still see 10 - 15% drawdowns.
But Scaramucci is more focused on the long-term. (as we all should be with Bitcoin)
βLong term, with the halving coming this week, I think this thing trades to 170k, possibly to $200,000.β
If youβre willing to endure the volatile price swings, no one has even lost money in Bitcoin holding it for 4+ years.
βIn a rolling four-year period, no one has ever lost money in Bitcoin.β
And hereβs a chart to back that claim up.

Time in the market beats timing the marketβ¦

SUPPLY BREAKDOWN πͺ
Itβs time to check in on the supply of Bitcoin last active 1+ years ago.
We love this chart. Itβs so simple to understand and itβs extremely useful.
It categorises coins based on how long itβs been since they last moved on-chain. (as a percentage of the circulating supply)
Metrics rising: long-term holders are accumulating coins π
Metrics declining: long-term holders are selling coins π
Taking a look at the chart below youβll notice significant dips in these metrics when Bitcoin reaches new all-time highs. (especially with the 1+ year age band)

Hereβs the breakdown for each cohort (compared to what it was 2 weeks ago):
π΄Β Supply last active 1+ years ago: 65.79% (down from 65.84%)
π Supply last active 2+ years ago: 54.32% (down from 54.52%)
π’Β Supply last active 3+ years ago: 45.21% (up from 44.86%)
π΅Β Supply last active 5+ years ago: 31.17% (down from 31.21%)
Over the last two weeks, the 1+, 2+ and 5+ age bands experienced a slight decrease.
BUT, the 3+ age band slightly increasedβ¦
With Bitcoinβs recent price action, some long-term holders have decided to lock in some profits.
Which is perfectly normal by the way.
Take a look at the 1yr+ age bandΒ π΄, it always dips as Bitcoinβs price increases throughout the bull run.
(the younger age bands are more price sensitive)
However, the 3yr+ and 5yr+ age bands are essentially still at their all-time highs.
With Bitcoin hitting a new all-time high & all the selling out of Grayscale, these numbers are insane.
More & more investors are here for the long haul. Conviction in Bitcoin stillΒ extremely high.

CRACKING CRYPTO π₯
IMF says Bitcoin has become necessary financial tool for preserving wealth amid financial instability. Bitcoin is increasingly serving as a critical channel for cross-border financial flows amid global financial instability.
Binance gets Dubai crypto license following CZβs departure. The full regulatory license could turn the tides for Binance, which has been under intense regulatory scrutiny for at least two years.
Bitcoin Dips Below $60K as Israel Launches Strike on Iran. Iran's first strike on Israel pushed down crypto and risk assets, while leading to a spike in gold.
WHAT WEβRE READING π
Want to get even smarter? Check these out.
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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.