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- 🥜 Bitcoin: A perfect storm is brewing...
🥜 Bitcoin: A perfect storm is brewing...
PLUS: SBF found guilty
GM to all 15,799 of you. Crypto Nutshell #133 swingin’ by. 🪲 🥜
We’re the crypto newsletter more dependable than a man dressed as a bat, protecting his city from crime... 🦇🌃
Today, we’ll be going over:
🧑⚖️ SBF found guilty
⛈️ A perfect storm is brewing…
🙅♂️ HODLers refuse to sell
💰 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 6:15am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
SBF FOUND GUILTY 🧑⚖️
BREAKING: Sam Bankman-Fried Guilty on All 7 Counts in FTX Fraud Trial
After a 5 week trial, a New York jury found that Sam Bankman-Fried defrauded his customers and lenders.
The jury took less than fours hours to decide SBF’s fate.
Guilty on all seven charges:
Wire fraud on customers of FTX
Conspiracy to commit wire fraud on customers of FTX
Conspiracy to commit commodities fraud on customers of FTX
Conspiracy to commit securities fraud on investors in FTX
Conspiracy to commit money laundering
Wire fraud on lenders to Alameda Research
Conspiracy to commit wire fraud on lenders to Alameda Research
“These players like Sam Bankman-Fried might be new, but this kind of fraud, this kind of corruption, is as old as time… to every single fraudster out there who thinks that they're untouchable, or that their crimes are too complex for us to catch… Those folks should think again and cut it out. And if they don't, I promise we'll have enough handcuffs for all of them,
SBF is set to be sentenced by Judge Lewis Kaplan on March 28, 2024, facing a maximum of 115 years behind bars. 😲
In the meantime, SBF will remain in a federal jail in Brooklyn.
Sam Bankman-Fried FAQs:
1) Guilty on 7 charges
2) Maximum sentence is 115 years
3) Sentencing is March 28, 2024.
4) Likely medium security prison.
5) He has a second trial March, 11, 2024 for 5 more charges.
6) The second trial sentencing may likely also be done on March 28th.… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…— Autism Capital 🧩 (@AutismCapital)
12:31 AM • Nov 3, 2023
SBF still maintains his innocence…
Checkout this statement from his lawyer:
“Bankman-Fried maintains his innocence and will continue to vigorously fight the charges against him.”
However his time in the court spotlight is far from over. A second trial on five additional charges is scheduled for March next year.
For live updates on SBF’s guilty verdict checkout this article.
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THE PERFECT STORM ⛈️
As we covered yesterday, Michael Saylor just bought an additional 155 Bitcoin for $5.3 million.
This brings MicroStrategy's total to 158,400 Bitcoin, worth just under $5.5 billion. 🤯
This morning, Saylor joined CNBC to discuss his latest buy.
The first question?
“Don’t you think you have enough exposure?”
Saylor’s response:
“You can never have too much Bitcoin.” 😂
Saylor went on to speak on why he’s so bullish over the next 12 months.
It all comes down to the perfect storm of the Bitcoin ETF & the Bitcoin halving. Supply contracting at the same time as demand increasing. ⛈
“That’s why all of us are fairly bullish over the next 12 months. Demand is going to increase. Supply is going to contract. This is fairly unprecedented in the history of Wall Street.”
Saylor put it like this:
The majority of the natural sellers of Bitcoin are Bitcoin miners. They must sell to cover their electricity & capital costs.
Currently, this selling equates to ~$12 billion a year.
Following the Bitcoin halving in April 2024, this natural selling will be cut to ~$6 billion a year.
This huge cut in supply is happening at the same time as the spot Bitcoin ETF is coming onto the market.
A massive contraction in supply plus a huge bump in demand?
That’s unprecedented. 🎆
HODLERS REFUSE TO SELL 🙅♂️
Today we’ll be jumping into the HODL Waves.
The HODL Waves metric is super interesting to look at as it categorises the amount of Bitcoin in circulation by age bands. Warmer colours represent younger coins and cooler colours represent older coins.
This metric visualises how the amount of Bitcoin in each age band shifts over time, creating a wave like pattern. 🌊
Looking at the chart below we’ve filtered it to only show coins held for longer than 3 months.
This chart shows us what the ‘smart money’ is doing. 🤑
When the size of these age bands reduces, we know that the ‘smart money’ is selling. This happens when Bitcoin reaches its cycle high (look at 2018 & 2021).
When the size of these age bands increases, we know that the ‘smart money’ is accumulating. This happens during bear markets.
Knowing this, the HODL Waves can be useful in gauging cycle tops. Long-term HODLers only begin to sell when Bitcoin reaches a new high.
Here’s the current age band breakdown:
3m-6m: 8.47%
6m-12m: 11.84%
1y-2y: 11.24%
2y-3y: 16.33%
3y-5y: 11.09%
5y-7y: 8.96%
7y-10y: 5.46%
>10y: 15.17%
As of today 88.56% of the Bitcoin supply has not moved in over 3 months. 😱
That is an absolutely insane stat.
And notice how this metric is still growing?
Bitcoin’s price is going to have to increase A LOT before any of these HODLers even consider selling their coins…
Bottom Line: We’ve spoken about it quite a lot recently, but Bitcoin is definitely facing a supply shock.
There just isn’t enough Bitcoin freely available to keep up with the demand that the ETFs and halving will bring. 😎
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
WHAT WE’RE READING ✍️
Want to get even smarter? Check these out.
p.s. all completely FREE
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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Did you read yesterday’s edition?
We mentioned that private wealth management firm Bernstein released their Bitcoin price prediction for 2025. How high do they think Bitcoin will go?
A) $100,000
B) $150,000
C) $1,000,000
D) $400,000
Find out the answer at the bottom of “Meme Corner” below 😀
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: B) $150,000 🥳
That’s right! Bernstein believes Bitcoin will reach $150,000 by mid-2025.
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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research
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