GM to the winners club. Crypto Nutshell Pro #105 burrowin' in for winter… 🐻🥜

If you’re new here, each Crypto Nutshell Pro is broken down into 2 sections:

The goal?

Help you understand exactly where we are in the cycle.

By now, you should have read through the following page: Read This First

(Click the button at the bottom of the page to continue the welcome series - there are 4 pages in total to read)

These give you a broad overview of the Crypto Nutshell Pro Portfolio and how we’re positioning for the rest of this cycle.

And in case you missed last week's Nutshell Pro, you can check that out here.

Now, let’s jump in…

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Bitcoin's at $67,200, down 11.3% from last Friday's close.

Ethereum's at $1,900, down 14.3%.

That's taken Bitcoin down to, and now just under, its 200-week moving average (the average weekly close over roughly the last four years), which on our maths sat at about $68,000 on Friday night.

Last week that average was the lowest level in our "break" scenario, and six days later Bitcoin was standing on it.

It's been tested three times this year on a weekly close, once in late June and twice in August, and each time Bitcoin closed back above it the following week.

In 2022 it gave way, and Bitcoin spent 30 straight weeks below it.

Which way it goes depends on who's selling, and this week the pressure came from rising rates and from money leaving crypto altogether, more than from tech stocks.

On Monday the Nasdaq 100 jumped 3.4% and Bitcoin fell 1.3%, with the ETFs losing another $201 million.

That was the signpost we set last week (IBIT taking in money on a good day for stocks), and it failed on the first try.

Tuesday's October inflation report then landed on the exact number Fed governor Christopher Waller had named as grounds for considering a half-point hike, with core prices up 0.3% in a month.

Thursday brought Jensen Huang's exit from Nvidia, but the Nasdaq 100 closed only 0.3% lower while Bitcoin fell 4.3%.

Bitcoin broke under $70,000 overnight in Asia, where Laevitas's Rick Maeda says leveraged bets clustered below that level got forced out, and Friday's producer prices didn't bring it back, coming in a touch under forecast but still up 6.5% on a year ago, the biggest annual rise since November 2022.

We lined up each day's move against the change in the 10-year Treasury yield, using 4pm New York prices.

On that basis Bitcoin lost 9.1% this week, and the three days when the 10-year rose 5 basis points or more (Tuesday, Thursday and Friday) account for all of it.

Monday and Wednesday, taken together, came out flat.

Gold, which also pays no interest, fell 2.1% on Tuesday and 2.9% on Thursday, the two days the 10-year jumped more than 10 basis points, while the Nasdaq slipped less than 1% on each.

Across the week gold lost 4.6%, the 10-year climbed about 30 basis points to 5.15%, and the dollar index hit a 19-month high.

On Tuesday and Thursday Bitcoin moved more like gold, the other big asset that pays nothing, than like the Nasdaq, and both fell as cash and bonds started paying more.

Two days isn't much, though, and over the past month Bitcoin's daily moves still track the Nasdaq 100 more closely than gold (a correlation of 0.67 against 0.51 over 23 sessions).

The 10-year was also higher than this in early October, at 5.31% on October 5, when Bitcoin sat near $86,000.

Back then the ETFs were still taking money in, $321.6 million over October's first four trading days, so there were buyers underneath it.

This week nothing caught it, because the money that used to do that job has been walking out of crypto…