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- 🥜 Halving is near
🥜 Halving is near
PLUS: Crypto Life Raft
Today’s edition is brought to you by Animus Technologies.
GM to all 58,219 of you. Crypto Nutshell #282 slidin’ by. 🐧 🥜
We’re the crypto newsletter that's more enthralling than a group of astronauts fighting for survival against an unknown extraterrestrial threat on a distant moon... 🌕 👽
What we’ve cooked up for you today…
🤔 The most impactful halving
🛟 Crypto is a life raft
💪 HODLer breakdown
💰 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 5:45am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
THE MOST IMPACTFUL HALVING? 🤔
BREAKING: In dollar terms, the 2024 halving will be >3x as impactful as the 2020 halving
The next Bitcoin halving is scheduled to take place in ~19 days.
In case you’re new around here, the Bitcoin halving is a BIG deal.
It takes place every 210,000 blocks (~4 years).
With the Bitcoin halving, the reward for mining Bitcoin is cut in half.
To dive deeper into what the halving is, click here.
Hunter Horsley, CEO of Bitwise, tweeted out something very interesting this morning.
This upcoming halving may be the most impactful we’ve seen…
During the 2020 halving, Bitcoin was at ~$9,000. In dollar terms, the supply reduction was $9M a day (~$3B a year).
This halving, Bitcoin is at ~$70,000. In dollar terms, the supply reduction will be ~$32M a day (~$11B a year).
That’s over 3x the impact in dollar terms… 🤯
A much larger reduction in natural selling at the same time we are seeing ridiculous demand from the ETFs.
Twitter user Jeff Kirdeikis put it perfectly.
It really does feel like the perfect storm is brewing:🌪️
TOGETHER WITH ANIMUS 👾
Over the past year, the crypto market has been on fire. 🔥
12-months ago, Bitcoin was trading at $20,000 and Ethereum was trading at $1,500.
But where will prices go now?
Will there be a sell-off before the Bitcoin halving?
Or will there be a move up in anticipation?
Truth is - timing the market is extremely difficult.
But what if we could use the power of A.I to help us.
That’s where Animus Technologies comes in.
Animus Technologies takes the guess-work out of crypto.
They’ve developed data-driven trading strategies to out-perform the market without the need to add any excess risk.
Developed over 6+ years, their track record is incredible:
Uses cutting-edge artificial intelligence and sentiment analysis to out-return Bitcoin on an outright & risk adjusted basis ✅
Animus Technologies has crushed it, returning +345.57% vs Bitcoin +119.05% 📈
Won Bitcoin Magazines ‘Bitcoin Alpha Competition’, receiving $1 million in seed capital 🌱
Animus is looking at taking on a limited number of new clients.
If you are looking to leverage A.I and out-return Bitcoin, you can click here to book a call with their team to see if they’re right for you.
CRYPTO IS A LIFE RAFT 🛟
Crypto is a life raft from the old system.
It’s the biggest macro opportunity of all time.
Raoul Pal broke it down in his latest video.
For those who don’t know Raoul, he’s the CEO & founder of Real Vision.
Raoul is a veteran in both crypto & financial markets, having first bought Bitcoin 10+ years ago.
In his latest video, Raoul explained the crypto is a life raft out of debasement.
“Crypto is a life raft out of debasement. It’s a new financial system being built. Whichever country you’re in, it’s the same globally homogenous product.”
All assets are correlated to the total liquidity index.
(the total liquidity index is a consolidated view of all major central bank balance sheets from around the world)
We covered this two weeks - checkout that article here.
Essentially the takeaway is, if everything is correlated to the total liquidity index, then you may as well pick the asset that benefits the most.
And that’s crypto.
Take a look at this chart from Fidelity - Bitcoin’s risk vs return is in another world compared to every other asset.
Continuing on with the video, Raoul gave a prediction on where he sees the total crypto market cap heading:
“It’s currently a $2.7 trillion market. I think this cycle it ends up at $10 trillion on its way to $100 or $200 trillion. That is a big f*cking mega trend.”
Raoul believes crypto is the greatest opportunity of all time.
“With the debasement of currency, the adoption of a new system and the fact that it’s a life raft from the old system. That creates a supermassive black hole that sucks in capital. And it outperforms everything. It’s the biggest macro trend and bet of all time.”
HODLER BREAKDOWN 💪
Today we’ll be taking a look at the Long / Short-Term Holder Threshold.
Here’s how this metric works:
🔴 Short-Term Holders (STHs): coins that have been held for less than 155 days
🔵 Long-Term Holders (LTHs): coins that have been held for more than 155 days
🟥 Short-Term Holder Cost Basis: all coins purchased in this price range are STHs
🟦 Long-Term Holder Cost Basis: all coins purchased in this price range are LTHs
This metric is extremely powerful as we can see exactly what price STHs and LTHs purchased Bitcoin at. 🔎
The STH / LTH threshold is currently at 29th October 2023, back when Bitcoin was ~$34,000.
All coins purchased before this date are classified as LTHs.
All coins purchased after this date are classified as STHs.
Today there is currently 14,011,127 Bitcoin in the hands of LTHs. (71.23% of the circulating supply) 💪
Whereas the amount of coins held by STHs is only 3,357,030. (17.07% of the circulating supply)
For those of you that really know your stuff, you may have noticed that these numbers don’t add up to Bitcoin’s circulating supply.
That’s because exchange balances aren’t counted in this metric.
You may have also noticed that the amount of long-term holders has started to decline.
That’s typical of bull market’s as long-term holders finally decide to take profits with these price run-ups. (and every single LTH is currently in profit)
Don’t be fooled by the recent dip, long-term conviction in Bitcoin is still extremely high.
In fact, it’s basically still at an all-time high.
A large portion of the dip in long-term holders is the selling we have seen out of Grayscale.
Bankrupt firms such as Genesis, FTX & Celsius are clearing their positions… 🧹
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
Tron argues SEC ‘not a worldwide regulator’ and lawsuit goes ‘too far’. Tron and founder Justin Sun have filed to dismiss the SEC’s suit, saying the regulator has no jurisdiction over foreign entities.
Crypto is totally a Lego financial system — and that's a good thing. Terrible actors are indeed a problem. But those people didn’t stop the core tech of the crypto ecosystem to stop working.
Solana Foundation Says It Can Filter Through the Offensive Meme Coin Problem. Panelists at a BUIDL Asia summit argue racist meme coins can be handled with a filter.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
Want to get even smarter? Check these out.
p.s. all completely FREE
CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)
What is "Mining" in Bitcoin? |
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: A) The process of confirming transactions and adding them to the blockchain 🥳
For confirming transactions, miners are paid in Bitcoin.
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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.
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