GM and welcome to The Crypto Nutshell! 🫶 🥜 

The crypto newsletter that's more stable than finding yourself in a time loop, reliving the same day over and over... ⏳🔄 

Today, we’ll discuss:

• Recapping the last 24 hours in the world of crypto 🌏

• Let’s take a closer look at Michael Burry’s predictions 🤑

• Why low volatility always results in wild price movements💰

• And more…

MARKET WATCH ⚖️

BTC Dominance is currently at 50.56% and the current crypto market cap is $1.16T  ▼1.34%

Biggest Winners of The Day 🤑

• Toncoin (TON) ▲0.89%

Biggest Losers of The Day 😭

• Polygon (MATIC) ▼7.09%

• Solana (SOL) ▼5.62%

• Dogecoin (DOGE) ▼5.34%

Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section

All price data as of 7:20am ET

COINBASE TO OFFER BTC FUTURES 💰

JUST IN: Coinbase Global has earned approval from the National Futures Association (NFA) to offer eligible U.S. customers crypto futures. 🔮

A futures contract is a legal agreement to buy or sell an asset at a predetermined price at a specified time in the future.

This is a HUGE win for Coinbase as they are currently in the middle of a legal battle against the SEC for operating as an unregistered securities exchange.

Coinbase had this to say:

“This is a critical milestone that reaffirms our commitment to operate a regulated and compliant business and be the most trusted and secure crypto-native platform for our customers.”

The small wins are stacking up for Coinbase…

EXPERT OF THE DAY 💰

Today’s expert prediction of the day is a follow up from yesterdays. In case you missed it, you can read it here.

In a nutshell, billionaire investor Michael Burry - famous for profiting close to $1 billion dollars by shorting the housing market in 2008 - has a $1.6 billion dollar short against the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ. 😳 

Burry has 93% of his total portfolio tied up in bets that markets are about to crash HARD. 📉

Today we wanted to highlight why you shouldn’t take Burry’s predictions as gospel, nor any expert for that matter.

Check out this chart of Michael Burry’s last 7 predictions with timestamps:

Let’s break them down:

Prediction 1: December 2015 - Burry calls for the stock market to crash within the next few months.

Result: Stock Market +11% next 12 months.

Prediction 2: May 2017 Burry predicts a global financial meltdown.

Result: Stock Market +19% next 12 months.

Prediction 3: September 2019 Burry calls for a stock market crash due to a bubble in ETFs.

Result: Stock Market +15% next 12 months.

Prediction 4: March 2020, Burry reveals a massive bearish bet.

Result: Stock Market +72% next 12 months.

Prediction 5: Feb 2021, Burry predicts a stock market crash due to a speculative bubble. Reveals Tesla shorts.

Result: Stock Market +16%, Tesla +8% next 12 months.

Prediction 6: Sept 2022, Burry predicted that the stock market bottom was not in yet, more pain to come.

Result: Stock Market +21% next 11 months.

Prediction 7: Jan 2023, Burry predicts a recession and new round of inflation. Tweets: “SELL”

Result: +17% Year to Date

Although Burry is held in very high regards and is purported as a kind of’ Stock Market Herald’, when you dig into his previous predictions and their results, it’s clear he’s only human. Like the rest of us.

Don't get it wrong. We aren’t trying to bash Burry. In fact we are big fans and think he’s a world class analyst. The point we're making is: nobody has a crystal ball. 🔮

It works both ways too. Let’s not forget experts like Raoul Pal were calling for $20,000 Ethereum in 2021 & almost every single analyst was claiming a $100,000 Bitcoin to be hit last cycle.

Which as we all know, never happened.

The moral of the story: no one can predict the future.

Nutty’s takeaway: Although experts and analysts are fallible just like the rest of us, it doesn’t mean their predictions aren’t useful. The best way to get value out of what the ‘pros’ or ‘experts’ are saying is to test their predictions against your own personal investment thesis.

Does it challenge your beliefs? 🤔

Could they be looking at data that you’re not? 🤨

Have you missed something? 🧐

All great questions to test your own investing thesis against.

ON CHAIN DATA DIVE 📊

Can Bitcoin please do something… anything…

Well, today’s chart indicates that something BIG may be coming soon. 👀

Let’s take a look at Bitcoin’s Annualized Realized Volatility. We’ll be focusing on the 1 month volatility measure today. Before we get into, it’s important to know what Realized Volatility is and how it’s measured.

Realized Volatility is the measure of daily changes in the price over a period of time. High volatility means there is high risk in the market and large price movements. Low volatility is the opposite, low risk and not much price movement.

As of today, the 1-month volatility is currently at 17.6%. 😲

This is a 5 year low for Bitcoin. (explains why price has barely moved over the last 2 months…)

Ok great. Volatility is at a 5 year low of 17.6% but what does this mean? 🤷‍♂️

Historically, when Bitcoin reaches volatility levels this low, wild price movements follow:

• November 2018: Over the next month Bitcoin would fall in price by 50%

• April 2019: Bitcoin rise’s from $4,000 to a peak of $14,000 in July 2019

• July 2020: The lead up to the 2021 bull run where the price rose to $64,000

Nutty’s Takeaway: From the chart above, periods of low volatility have been circled as well as the related price movement.

Out of the 5 times volatility has been this low in the past, 4 have resulted in large positive price movements… 🤑

It’ll be interesting to see what todays low volatility has in store for us… (fingers crossed it’s an upwards move🤞)

CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜

TRIVIA TIME ✍️

Instead of storing money, Bitcoin wallets store something called “ _____”.

• A) Coins

• B) Data

• C) Keys

• D) Seeds

Find out the answer at the bottom of this newsletter 😀

MEME CORNER 😂

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: C) Keys 🎉

Bitcoin wallets are totally different from physical wallets. Instead of storing money, Bitcoin wallets store something called “ keys”.

NUTCASE REVIEW OF THE DAY 🔍

DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.