GM and welcome to The Crypto Nutshell! 🫶 🥜 

The crypto newsletter that's more thrilling than waking up with superpowers after a radioactive spider bite... 🕷️💥

Today, we’ll discuss:

• Recapping the last 24 hours in the world of crypto 🌏

• This investors HUGE bet against everyone 🤑

• Bitcoin exchange balance’s at 5 year low💰

• And more…

MARKET WATCH ⚖️

BTC Dominance is currently at 49.73% and the current crypto market cap is $1.17T  ▼0.14%

Biggest Winners of The Day 🤑

• Toncoin (TON) ▲4.50%

• Bitcoin Cash (BCH) ▲2.79%

• Solana (SOL) ▲1.50%

Biggest Losers of The Day 😭

• Chainlink (LINK) ▼2.77%

• Shiba Inu (SHIB) ▼1.92%

• Polygon (MATIC) ▼0.82%

Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section

All price data as of 8:50am ET

BANKMAN-FRIED INDICTED 👮

JUST IN: Sam Bankman-Fried indicted on new charges for donating $100 Million in stolen customer funds to US politicians.

The indictment filing against FTX founder Sam Bankman-Fried says that FTX was exploiting customers, embezzling customer deposits and using the millions in stolen funds for various purposes. These include funding Bankman-Fried’s lifestyle, growing FTX and political contributions.

Bankman-Fried was jailed last week (awaiting trial) and the new indictment is charging him with seven counts of conspiracy and fraud over the collapse of FTX.

EXPERT OF THE DAY 💰

Todays expert prediction is an interesting one.

It goes against the general bullish consensus that most experts have right now. 🧐 

And it’s coming from a guy who’s made a name for himself by going against the grain and turning right when everyone else is heading left.

It’s Billionaire hedge fund manager, Michael Burry.

You may recognise Michael Burry from the blockbuster move The Big Short in which he is depicted by Christian Bale.

But if you haven’t heard of him… Burry is a heavy hitter.

Here’s some of his accolades:

• Made a huge bet shorting the housing market in 2007 / 2008, profiting close to $1 Billion dollars for himself and his shareholders.

• Currently runs a hedge fund - Scion Capital - with has ~$2 Billion under management

• Known for his huge bets AGAINST markets & contrarian views

Today it was revealed in 13F filings that Burry has made some HUGE bets against the markets.

He thinks they are going much, much lower. 📉

Burry’s portfolio has $890 Million worth of Puts against the S&P500 and $740 Million worth of Puts against the NASDAQ.

If you’re not sure what a Put is, it’s essentially a bet that you think the underlying asset is going to go DOWN in price in the future.

The combined value of Michael Burry’s short position is $1.6 Billion which makes up 93% of his total portfolio.

This is so significant because the last time he made such a massive bet was way back in 2008 with his infamous bet against the housing market.

Although this isn’t an exact bet against Bitcoin or crypto markets, the way crypto markets have been moving in tandem with the stock market over the last 24 months, Burry is making one thing clear...

He thinks everything is going down. 

On top of this, Burry has made it very clear in the past that he’s not a fan of Bitcoin & Crypto.

Burry is letting his money do the talking here, over the last 5 years he’s only invested with roughly ~$180 Million in total.

Which makes it all the more of a bombshell that he has almost taken a 10x position out going AGAINST the market.

It begs the question - what is he looking at that everyone else isn’t? 😳🤔 

Nutty’s Takeaway: Although this is a fantastic contrarian viewpoint to consider, there are some caveats that you should consider.

First off, 13F filings only reveal holdings at the END of a quarter, meaning over the past 2 weeks, Burry could have completely changed up or altered his portfolio.

Secondly, Burry has actually made many bets against the market over the past 10 or so years… some have come off and some have not.

The ones that turn out to be correct get a lot of publicity which makes it seem like Burry’s track record is much better than it actually is. Sometimes he hits, sometimes he doesn’t.

Thirdly, this isn’t a direct bet against Bitcoin or Crypto but rather the U.S stock market. If Burry is making a bet that the regional banking crisis could continue on, that could actually be to the benefit of Bitcoin & Crypto.

Regardless, it is always a good thing to consider opposing viewpoints, especially when the overwhelming consensus is saying one thing. 🤔

The huge wins always come when you make a bet that goes against what the masses think is going to happen.

We’re still bullish, at least on crypto markets… but let us know what you think of this HUGE bet in today’s poll.

ON CHAIN DATA DIVE 📊

Following on from yesterday’s on chain data dive. We saw this chart and thought it would be a perfect follow up to yesterdays newsletter. It combines everything in yesterday's edition and make’s it much easier to visualise.

This chart shows the 155-day cut off period for coins to be classified as long-term or short-term. The blue area is long-term holders and the red area is short term holders.

From the chart we can see that the cut off price is currently at ~$24,781. So either side of this price we have long and short term holders.

It’s interesting to see the complete flip that happened after the 2021 bull run. Short term holders rapidly declined and long term holders began steadily increasing.

It’s pretty clear from this chart that the conviction of Bitcoin HODLers has remained high. Very few HODLer's are willing to sell their Bitcoin at these prices…

Here’s another chart that shows us the strong “hodl mentality” of the Bitcoin community. Ever since May 2020, The Bitcoin Balances on exchanges has been decreasing at a steady rate.

As of today there are 2,277,554 Bitcoin sitting on exchanges. This is only 11.7% of the total supply. Crazy stuff. 😱

Nutty’s Takeaway: So the amount of Bitcoin held by long term holders has been going up since 2021. The amount of short term holders has declined to cycle lows. And the amount of Bitcoin on exchanges has declined to 5 year lows. Mix these with the upcoming Bitcoin halving and suddenly there isn’t enough Bitcoin to go around.

Simple supply and demand… 🥂

CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜

TRIVIA TIME ✍️

A _________ is just a bunch of computers linked together allowing them to exchange data with each other.

• A) Artificial Intelligence

• B) Wormhole

• C) Network

• D) Matrix

Find out the answer at the bottom of this newsletter 😀

MEME CORNER 😂

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: C) Network 🎉

A network is just a bunch of computers linked together allowing them to exchange data with each other.

NUTCASE REVIEW OF THE DAY 🔍

DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.