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🥜 Is crypto over? 😢
PLUS: Bitcoin equals Thanos
GM. Crypto Nutshell comin’ in hot! 🫶 🥜
We’re the crypto newsletter that's as astonishing as discovering you're the last of a powerful alien race and must learn to control your powers... 🦸🚀
Today, we’ll discuss:
Bitcoin ETF = Thanos? 🤔
Crypto expert says: Remain Bullish. 💪
A new way to predict crypto tops? 🌧️
And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 9:05am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
BITCOIN ETF IS INEVITABLE⌛️
JUST IN: Former SEC chair says spot Bitcoin ETF approval is ‘inevitable’ despite delays
Just one day after the SEC delayed decisions on 7 Bitcoin ETF applications, former commission chair Jay Clayton said “An approval is inevitable… the dichotomy between a futures product and cash product can’t go on forever.”
The “dichotomy” that Jay Clayton mentions here is based on the fact that the SEC has approved Bitcoin Futures ETFs but no spot Bitcoin ETFs.
With yesterday’s delays, the SEC now has another 45 days until it can once again approve, deny or delay the ETF applications from the seven major firms.
Clayton said he expects to see “progress on this going forward.” The SEC can continue to push the deadlines on the applications until March 2024.
TOGETHER WITH BLACK SWAN STREET 🦢
Did you know Michael Burry made his investors $700 million dollars in 2008.
He personally pocketed $100 million too.
Not too shabby.
How?
A black swan event occurred that only he saw coming. Black swan events are where you make outsized returns.
The problem?
Nutty doesn’t know sh#t about finance.
That’s why Nutty reads Black Swan Street They’re like the Crypto Nutshell, but for finance and investing.
They cover topics such as potential Black Swan events or how to best invest $1,000.
The best part?
Just like us, they’re completely free.
Click that beautiful subscribe button and it’ll automatically add you to their list.
If you’re not a fan, you can always unsub. Win Win. 🎉
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EXPERT OF THE DAY 💰
Macroeconomic expert Raoul Pal is bullish despite this brutal Crypto dump.
Appearing yesterday on Crypto Banter, Raoul had one message to crypto investors. Stay bullish in spite of this recent price dump.
Why? - a perfect three layered storm.
Inflation is going down. 📉
Unemployment is rising. 📈
The economy is slowing down. 😳
What does this mean?
The fed has to stop raising rates. ✋
The fed has to stop raising rates. 🛑
Then comes quantitative easing (money printer go brrr) 🖨️
On top of this, 2024 is an election year. Which tends to have stimulus.
Raoul argues it’s a perfect nexus of liquidity.
“I'm bullish. I've been bullish for a while and it hasn't changed.”
The equation is simple.
Lower interest rates + increased money printing = higher crypto prices.
Bottom line from Raoul? Be bullish in the face of this volatility and you will be rewarded.
Nutty's takeaway: This weak price action wasn't unexpected. August & September have historically been lousy for crypto prices.
The good news?
October, November & December are much better.
A light at the end of the tunnel. ⛅️
ON CHAIN DATA DIVE 📊
Let’s take a look at two of the most popular models for predicting Bitcoin cycle tops and bottoms
Bitcoin Investor Tool
The Investor Tool, created by Philip Swift, is useful for long-term investors. This tool uses two simple moving averages to work out if we are approaching cycle highs or lows. The 2-year moving average 🟢 and a 5x multiple of the 2-year moving average 🔴.
Price is below the 2-year MA 🟢 indicates cycle bottoms 👇
Price is above the 5× 2-year MA 🔴 indicates cycle tops 👆
Takeaway: Taking a look at the chart below we can see that it has been relatively accurate in predicting market tops and bottoms. In the past when the price has gone below the 🟢 2-year MA it has bounced back up and eventually touched the 🔴 5× 2-year MA.
Bitcoin: Realized HODL Ratio
The Realized HODL Ratio (RHODL) is a spin on the Realized Cap HODL Waves. The RHODL Ratio is calculated by taking the 1 week band and dividing by the 1-2 year band. The ratio also takes lost coins and increased hodling over time into account by multiplying the ratio by the age of the market in days.
Approaching red zone: The market is approaching it’s cycle top. Historically been the best time for investors to take profits.
Approaching green zone: Bitcoin is undervalued and likely to rally. Historically been the best time for investors to accumulate.
Takeaway: This is a valuable tool for long-term Bitcoin investors. Below we can see that Bitcoin was briefly in the green zone at the start of 2023 (this lines up with the chart above). It’s now begun to rise indicating that a price rally is slowing beginning.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
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CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
TRIVIA TIME ✍️
On May 22, 2010, Laszlo Hanyecz made history by using Bitcoin to buy pizza. How many Bitcoin’s did he pay for these pizza’s?
A) 100
B) 10,000
C) 1,000
D) 10
Find out the answer at the bottom of this newsletter 😀
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: B) 10,000 🍕
Laszlo Hanyecz, a programmer and early Bitcoin miner, bought the pizza for 10,000 BTC. This would have been worth $690 million at Bitcoin’s all time high.
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NUTCASE REVIEW OF THE DAY 🔍
DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.
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