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- 🥜 Crypto Expert: 95% Odds Crypto Explodes in January
🥜 Crypto Expert: 95% Odds Crypto Explodes in January
PLUS: Grayscale ETF updates
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It’s the crypto newsletter that's as astonishing as discovering you're the last of a powerful alien race and must learn to control your powers... 🦸 🚀
What we’ve cooked up for you today…
🚨 Grayscale Bitcoin ETF major updates
🧨 95% Odds crypto explodes in January
🤑 Bitcoin Network Profitability
💰 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
GRAYSCALE ETF MAJOR UPDATES 🚨
BREAKING: Grayscale refiles Bitcoin ETF application as Barry Silbert departs
Grayscale has refiled its Bitcoin ETF application with the SEC.
Coincidently on the same day Barry Silbert announced his resignation from Grayscale’s board of directors. 😮
Barry Silbert is also the CEO of Grayscale's parent company: Digital Currency Group.
Now why is the resignation of Barry Silbert important? 🤷♂️
Analysts believe that this increases the odds that Grayscales Bitcoin Trust will be converted into a spot Bitcoin ETF.
Lumida Wealth CEO: Ram Ahluwalia had this to say:
“The SEC also has their own investigation against DCG which is led by Barry Silbert…. This is a decision from Barry to improve the odds of the ETF approval… Barry's resignation gives Grayscale greater autonomy.”
The other major news surrounding Grayscale is they finally surrendered to cash-only creations.
Cash vs in-kind creations has been a sticking point for the SEC. They've been pushing all pending issuers towards cash creations.
If you're not sure what we mean by cash vs in-kind creations, click here.
Remember all pending ETF issuers have until December 29 to submit final changes. (SEC decision deadline is January 10)
We’re expecting to more amended applications come through shortly.
Stay tuned. 😎
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95% ODDS CRYPTO EXPLODES IN JAN 🧨
Cathie Wood is the founder & CEO of ARK Invest.
She believes there is a 95% chance that crypto explodes in January, 2024.
Why?
In her latest interview, Cathie revealed that she has 95% certainty that a spot Bitcoin ETF will be approved on January 10th.
January 10th is the final deadline for the SEC to come to a decision.
“I will say when a spot Bitcoin ETF is approved because I think the probability is 95% now. If not higher. Specifically the early January window.”
This is notable because Cathie & ARK Invest have an active spot Bitcoin ETF application.
Cathie is an insider into what is going on.
Bloomberg ETF analysts have odds at 90%.
Cathie Wood, who is an insider, has odds at 95%.
We believe it’s a done deal, with odds at 99%.
Cathie also spoke on the odds that an Ethereum spot ETF is approved in May 2024.
Although she didn’t give specific odds, she believes it’s better than 50/50.
“I think they've been forthcoming in their interest in understanding both Bitcoin and Ether… it's probably a go in 2024.”
We’ve said it before but we’ll say it again.
Mark down these dates in your calendar:
January 10th for Bitcoin.
May 23rd & May 24th for Ethereum.
These dates will undoubtedly be explosive. 🧨
Strap in.
BITCOIN NETWORK PROFITABILITY 🤑
Today we’ll continuing or deep dive into Glassnode’s Recovering from a Bitcoin Bear chart.
Links to the previous parts in case you missed them:
To gauge the profitability of Bitcoin we’ll be looking at the adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio.
It may sound a little complicated, but it simply tracks the degree of realised profit for all coins moved on-chain.
(the adjusted part means that coins with a lifespan of less than 1 hour are excluded)
This is done by comparing the fiat value of a coin when it is first purchased to the fiat value when it is sold.
aSOPR > 1: on average, coins are being sold at a profit (this metric will flash 🟦 when this is true) 🐂
aSOPR < 1: on average, coins are being sold at a loss 🐻
aSOPR = 1: on average, coins are being sold at breakeven
October once again saw aSOPR break through 1.0, signifying that the market is on average realising net profits.
This also indicates a healthier inflow of demand (to absorb profit taking), and a more positive opinion of Bitcoin. 📈
We expect this metric to continue rising as we head into the bull run. Similar to the 2020 run-up.
Like yesterday, the bullish indicators keep on comin’. 😎
Stay tuned for tomorrows newsletter, where we’ll be breaking down what HODLers have been up to.
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
WHAT WE’RE READING ✍️
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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)
What was Bitcoin's initial block reward? |
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: B) 50 Bitcoin 🥳
When Bitcoin launched, the block reward was 50 Bitcoin, meaning that Miners received 50 Bitcoin for every block they confirmed.
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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.
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