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- 🥜 September Sucks
🥜 September Sucks
PLUS: Election doesn't matter
Today’s edition is brought to you by Zengo
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GM to all you crypto nuts. Crypto Nutshell #435 swingin’ back in… 🪃 🥜
We're the crypto newsletter that's more thrilling than battling the Empire in a galaxy far, far away... 🌌🚀
What we’ve cooked up for you today…
🏦 It doesn’t matter
👎 Why September sucks
💪 Long-term holding
💰 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 3:05am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
IT DOESN’T MATTER 🏦
BREAKING: Standard Chartered says bitcoin price could hit record high by year-end, regardless of US election outcome
According to Standard Chartered, the result of the US election doesn’t matter…
Bitcoin is going up regardless of who gets elected.
"I think Bitcoin ends the year higher, at new all-time highs, no matter who wins the U.S. election, with a Trump win taking it to $125,000 and $75,000 if it’s Harris."
Kendrick believes that the elections impact on Bitcoin matters less than it did when Joe Biden was the Democratic candidate.
Bitcoin will reach new highs by the end of 2024 due to a number of positive drivers:
"We think progress on relaxing regulations – particularly the repeal of SAB 121, which imposes stringent accounting rules on banks’ digital asset holdings – will continue in 2025 no matter who is in the White House."
Kendrick also noted developments in US Treasury markets:
We think current developments in U.S. Treasury markets – a re-steepening curve, with breakevens falling less than real yields and risk-neutral yields falling while term premium is stable – are building positive momentum for bitcoin."
Kendrick also expects a seasonal rebound in Bitcoin ETF inflows in October.
A Trump victory is generally seen as a bullish outcome for Bitcoin and crypto.
Analysts believe Trump’s administration would accelerate progress on pro-crypto policies.
Whereas…
A Harris victory is seen as bearish for Bitcoin and crypto. (at least in the short-term)
Analysts believe Kamala’s administration would delay some of the progress expected under a Trump admin.
"A Harris victory would likely trigger an initial price decline, but we would expect dips to be bought as the market recognises that progress on the regulatory front will still be forthcoming, and as other positive drivers take hold."
Polymarket currently has Kamala leading Trump by 1%…
But we want to know what you think.
Let us know your thoughts in the poll below on the US election and how you think it will impact Bitcoin and crypto. 👇️
Who do you believe will win the U.S election? 🇺🇸 |
KEEP YOUR CRYPTO SAFE 🤑
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Did we mention it’s completely free and more secure than a hardware wallet…
So what are you waiting for? Join the millions of users who choose Zengo to self-custody their crypto today!
WHY SEPTEMBERS SUCK 👎
Septembers suck.
And no, it’s not just because it’s my mother-in-law’s birthday…
Historically, September is terrible for crypto, too.
But why?
And more importantly, is there light at the end of the tunnel?
That’s what Matt Hougan broke down in his latest update.
Matt Hougan is the Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise. They currently have the 5th largest Bitcoin ETF.
This week, he dissected why Septembers are so terrible.
Historically, September is by far the worst month for crypto. On average, every September, Bitcoin falls by 4.5%:
So far this month, Bitcoin is down 7%. It looks like the trend is sticking around.
Hougan believes there’s 2 reasons this happens:
1. Septembers are terrible for all risk assets
Since 1929, September is the only month that the stock market falls more often that it rises.
September sucks for all risk-on assets. Not just Bitcoin.
2. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy
As Septembers have been terrible for so long, the September effect is now self-reinforcing:
“People now expect September to be bad, and so it is… Expectations move markets.”
So Septembers suck. But where does that leave us for the rest of the year?
Good news. There’s lots to look forward to:
Historically, October is Bitcoin’s 3rd best performing month. Then, November has been Bitcoin’s best.
On top of this, we have 2 major catalysts for crypto over next 2 months:
Results of the U.S Election - this is a major point of uncertainty hanging over markets. On November 5th, this will be resolved. (more on this in tomorrow’s newsletter - stay tuned)
Interest Rate Cuts - An interest rate cut this month is a certainty. Risk assets outperform as monetary conditions loosen.
“My base case remains that we see a significant rally as this uncertainty starts to dissipate in October and November…I’m ready for it.”
Septembers may suck.
But hang in there. October & November is just around the corner. 🎢
LONG-TERM HOLDING 💪
Yesterday we looked at Ethereum exchange balances.
So today it’s only fair that we check in on Bitcoin exchange balances.
As a quick refresher, here’s how to interpret this metric:
Decreasing exchange balances: Bullish indicator as it signals a shift towards long-term holding 🐂
Increasing exchange balances: Bearish indicator as coins being transferred to exchanges are more likely to be sold 🐻
Currently there is 3,001,055 Bitcoin available for sale on exchanges.
Which is only ~15.19% of the entire circulating supply.
And over the last 30 days, exchange balances have decreased by ~30,957 BTC. (~$1.8 billion at todays prices)
But here’s the thing…
When comparing percentages of supply on exchanges, Ethereum actually comes out on top:
Ethereum: 10.05% of the circulating supply
Bitcoin: 15.19% of the circulating supply
Regardless…
The exchange balances of Bitcoin and Ethereum are considerably low.
Which signals that investors have a preference for long-term holding. (withdrawing coins to cold storage)
There just isn’t that much Bitcoin available for sale right now…
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
Grayscale's XRP trust launch ignites 8% increase and ETF speculation. XRP value jumps as Grayscale unveils dedicated investment trust.
Coinbase launches 'cbBTC' wrapped Bitcoin digital asset. Coinbase, a centralized cryptocurrency exchange, announced the launch of its "cbBTC" wrapped Bitcoin product on Sept. 12, 2024.
Kalshi Lists Long-Sought Election Contracts After Beating CFTC in Court. Contracts on which party will control the Senate and House went live Thursday shortly after a federal judge rejected the regulator's last-minute bid to block them.
Donald Trump announces launch date of World Liberty Financial: 'We're embracing the future with crypto'. "We're embracing the future with crypto and leaving the slow and outdated big banks behind," Trump said Thursday.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
Want to get even smarter? Check these out.
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Raremints (link) - Daily crypto news
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Crypto Pragmatist (link) - Actionable alpha 3x a week
The Hustle (link) - Get Smarter on Business and Tech
Your Next Breakthrough (link) - Personal growth with Mark Manson
The Neuron (link) - AI trends and tools to keep you ahead
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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)
Memory test! What was the approximate trading volume of the Bitcoin ETFs after 3 days of trading? |
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: C) $10 billion 🥳
This was a bit of a tough one… After three days of trading the Bitcoin ETFs recorded ~$10 billion in trading volume.
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HOW DID WE DO? 🤷
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What did you think of today's Newsletter?Don't worry, you won't hurt our feelings... 🥲 |
NUTCASE REVIEW OF THE DAY 🔍
DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.
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