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- 🥜 This Bitcoin chart is spooky accurate... 👻
🥜 This Bitcoin chart is spooky accurate... 👻
PLUS: NFT Holders Go Blind
GM to all 17,341 of you. Crypto Nutshell #137 struttin’ in. 🐓 🥜
We’re the crypto newsletter more loyal than a dire wolf standing by the side of the children of the North... 🐺❄️
Today, we’ll be going over:
🙈 Bored ape’s go blind
👻 Two spooky accurate Bitcoin charts
🤔 What are long-term holders up to?
💰 And more…
MARKET WATCH ⚖️
Prices as at 4:40am ET
Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section
BORED APE BLINDNESS? 🙈
Breaking: NFT Owners Partying at ‘ApeFest’ Report Vision Injuries (Not From Looking at NFTs)
Just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse for NFT’s…
Thousands of Bored Ape Yacht Club members travelled to Hong Kong this past weekend for ApeFest.
What was supposed to be a fun night celebrating JPEG’s soon turned tragic as multiple attendees reported eye injuries that landed them in the ER. 🚑
Twitter posts like the two below started popping up describing extreme eye pain and partial blindness.
Anyone else’s eyes burning from last night? Woke up at 3am with extreme pain and ended up in the ER.
I saw a couple reports but just trying to figure out if there was a common thread.
— FΞLD | mrbayc.eth (@Feld4014)
7:58 AM • Nov 5, 2023
Woke up in the middle of the night after Apefest with so much pain in my eyes that I had to go to the hospital. I've seen several tweets about it
Doctor told me it was due to the UV from stage lights. I go to festivals often but have never experienced this
I try to understand… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
— Crypto June 💎🎯 (@CryptoJune777)
9:15 AM • Nov 5, 2023
The reason for these eye injuries has been identified as photokeratitis. The condition is caused by unprotected exposure of the cornea to ultraviolet radiation.
Apparently the contractor in charge of setting up lighting for the event decided to use a series of Phillip’s NLS TUV T8 Germicidal Tube lights…
The keyword here is “Germicidal’.
These lights are for medical use only…
Since the event, multiple reports have come out from BAYC members stating that the condition is treatable with medical assistance.
Although this is tragic and blindness isn’t a laughing matter…
Crypto Twitter couldn’t help themselves…
pov: u r front row @ apefest
— vxCozy (@vec0zy)
10:33 PM • Nov 5, 2023
POV: you went to apefest
— MinisterOfNFTs 🔮 (@MinisterOfNFTs)
5:57 PM • Nov 6, 2023
There’s just one thing about this entire situation we don’t understand…
We thought NFT holders were already blind?
(we kid, we kid.) 😂
For more info on this event, checkout this YouTube vid.
TOGETHER WITH FAST FOOD SECRETS CLUB 🍔
As you can probably tell, we love newsletters.
They’re the most efficient and no B.S way to stay informed on a wide array of topics.
But one newsletter is our personal favourite…
It’s kind of our dirty little secret. 🤫 (don’t tell anyone)
The newsletter? Fast Food Secrets Club
Every 2-3 days, they’ll send you a 3-minute read detailing:
Menu hacks & tips to get the best deals & bang for your buck 🍪
Secret recipes from the biggest fast food chains 🍟
Coupons, deals & specials at all your favourite restaurants 🌮
As always, they’re completely FREE.
Uppercut that subscribe button below & it will automatically add you to their list. You’re wallet will thank-you. (your waist line will not) 🫡
2 SPOOKY ACCURATE BITCOIN CHARTS 👻
Bitcoin’s price will peak around Christmas 2025. At least according to The Rational Root.
The Rational Root is an on-chain Bitcoin analyst and the lead analyst for the platform Bitcoin Strategy.
He's known for his unique spiral charts. His pricing models have grown him a following of over 150,000 investors.
He chooses to remain completely anonymous, using the symbol of a carrot and the handle @therationalroot as his pseudonym.
Why?
Here’s what he said:
“One of the the main reasons is: if we measure Bitcoin in fiat currency, Bitcoin's price will go to infinity. If Bitcoin's price goes to infinity, will you still want to remain public in the future?”
Fair enough.
The Rational Root recently did a 30 minute keynote at the Bitcoin Magazine conference. Although the entire talk was filled with value, 2 points stood out.
1. For the first time, the Bitcoin supply available for trade is decreasing heading into the halving.
As you can see, Bitcoin available for supply is decreasing. Why?
Bitcoin supply coming onto the market decreases every halving
The illiquid supply of Bitcoin continues to increase. Long-term Bitcoin HODLers continue to stack and more & more Bitcoin becomes permanently lost.
2. The Bitcoin 4 year cycle is playing out spookily accurate. 👻
Here’s how to read this spiral chart:
Each full rotation of the circle represents 4 years
Each ring represents a 10x increase in price, moving outwards
When you plot Bitcoin’s price on this graph, you start to see some fascinating patterns.
🟢 Bitcoin’s all-time high in each 4 year cycle is shown in green.
🔴 Bitcoin's cycle low is shown in red.
The accuracy is spooky.
Bitcoin’s peak & trough happens roughly at the exact same point in each 4 year cycle.
Extrapolating this chart out, The Rational Root predicts Bitcoin will peak in the next cycle around Christmas 2025.
At a price between $100,000 - $1 million. 🤯
I don’t think any of us will be complaining with that... 🥂
WHAT ARE LONG-TERM HOLDERS UP TO?🤔
Today we’ll be taking a look at the Bitcoin Monthly Sum of Revived Supply Z-score.
Now we know this sounds a little complicated, but really it’s quite simple.
This metric looks for periods where coins that have been held for 1+ years are spent at a statistically significant rate compared to the prior 2 years (half a cycle).
Basically it asks the question: Are long-term holders selling or accumulating?
Here’s how to interpret the chart:
🟩High Expenditure: correlates with period of maximum profit taking (bull market) or panic selling (bear market)
🟥Minimum Expenditure: Investors are deciding to HODL their coins rather than sell. Periods of strong accumulation
High expenditure typically happens at cycle lows (2018, FTX collapse etc.) and cycle highs (2021 bull market).
When this metric spikes green, long-term holders are deciding to sell their coins at a higher rate than usual (statistically significant).
Interestingly, a large amount of long-term holders decided to sell as Bitcoin fell from $29,000 to $26,000 back in August.
As of today the HODLed supply remains dormant.
Long-term holders are simply not interested in selling at current prices.
Which makes sense.
Long-term holders are generally more informed investors compared to short-term holders.
Who would be selling Bitcoin just before the approval of the ETFs and the halving? 🤷♂️
Clearly not the long-term holders… 😎
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
WHAT WE’RE READING ✍️
Want to get even smarter? Check these out.
p.s. all completely FREE
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CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Have you read yesterday’s edition?
We discussed Glassnode’s True Market Mean Price model. As of today what is the True Market Mean Price of Bitcoin?
A) $28,867
B) $20,692
C) $30,296
D) $32,443
Find out the answer at the bottom of “Meme Corner” below 😀
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: C) $30,296 🥳
Make sure to checkout yesterday’s edition for the full breakdown.
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DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research
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