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What we’ve cooked up for you today…
🏦 Election day
🥇 This would be a first
📈 Huge inflows
💰 And more…
Prices as at 4:35am ET
ELECTION DAY 🏦
BREAKING: Bitcoin Likely to Rally After the U.S. Election, Irrespective of Who Wins, History Shows
It’s finally time…
US election day is here!
Yesterday we explained why the price of Bitcoin has become correlated to a Trump victory. (Check that out here in case you missed it)
Basically it comes down to this:
Trump Win: Instant pump, new all-time high this year 📈
Harris Win: instant dump, new all-time high in 2025 📉
No matter what happens today, Bitcoin still goes up in the long-run.
Check out the chart below.
The orange vertical lines are US election dates.
And as you can see, Bitcoin has always appreciated in price after every US election.
No matter which party ends up winning the election…
Let’s break it down.
2012 - Democrat Victory
During the 2012 US election, Bitcoin was trading at ~$11.
The top of the cycle occurred one year later in November 2013, with Bitcoin reaching a high of ~$1,100. (~9,900% increase)
2016 - Republican Victory
During the 2016 US election, Bitcoin was trading at ~$700.
It peaked one year later in December 2017, reaching a high of ~$18,000. (~2,471% increase)
2020 - Democrat Victory
During the 2020 US election, Bitcoin was trading at ~$14,000.
Again, it peaked one year later in November 2021, reaching a high of ~$69,000. (~392% increase)
It’s worth pointing out the diminishing returns that each cycle experiences.
And for Bitcoin to cross over the $100,000 mark, it only needs to increase by ~49.25% from current price levels.
Which doesn’t seem that unrealistic…
But we want to hear from you.
Who do you think will win the US presidential election?
Let us know your thoughts in the poll below. 👇️
Who do you think is most likely to win the U.S election? 🇺🇸 |
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THIS COULD BE A FIRST 🥇
Depending on how the election goes, both the President & Vice President of the United States could be owners of crypto.
That would be a first.
According to recent financial disclosures obtained by CBS news, J.D. Vance, the Republican vice-presidential pick for Donald Trump, is a Bitcoin holder.
In federal financial disclosure forms, it was revealed that Vance owns between $250,000 - $500,000 in Bitcoin.
This was an increase from his 2022 reported holdings of $100,000 - $250,000 in Bitcoin.
Which means J.D Vance is not only a Bitcoin hodler, but he’s been a buyer over the past two years.
This sets up an interesting scenario: if Republicans win on election night, both the President and Vice President of the United States will be owners of crypto.
An unimaginable scenario even just a few years ago… 😯
In case you forgot, Donald Trump owns between $1 - $5 million in Ethereum, which were proceeds from his various NFT projects.
Although not yet a Bitcoin owner, earlier this year Trump made a notable Bitcoin transaction during a visit to PubKey, a crypto-themed bar in New York City.
On September 18, 2024, he became the first former president to use Bitcoin for a transaction, paying $998.70 for food and drinks for patrons at the bar.
On the other side of the aisle, there has been no information indicating that either Kamala Harris or her vice-presidential pick, Tim Walz, owns Bitcoin or any cryptocurrency.
Political views aside, Republicans have made it clear that they are the more pro-crypto party.
Perhaps the predictions of a $100,000 Bitcoin on a Trump win aren’t so far-fetched after all… 👀
HUGE INFLOWS 📈
For the fourth week in a row, digital asset funds experienced net inflows.
Last week they clocked in a whopping $2.2 billion in net inflows!
Massive inflows and recent price appreciation pushed total assets under management over $100 billion. (The second time this has ever happened - the first being early June 2024)
The inflows were basically all focused on Bitcoin last week, which saw $2.156 billion come in.
Recent price action also prompted $8.9 million worth of inflows into Short-Bitcoin. (Investors betting against Bitcoin)
Ethereum and Solana also saw minor inflows of $9.5m and $5.7m respectively.
The United States saw the majority of the inflows with $2.229 billion for the week.
Germany and Australia also saw minor inflows of $5.1m and $2.1m respectively.
Whilst Canada, Sweden and Switzerland experienced outflows of $24.4m, $20.3m and $13.8m respectively.
Once again CoinShares notes that the likely reason for these large inflows was the growing odds of a Trump victory at the start of the week.
However…
As polls turned and Trump’s odds of victory declined throughout the week, we actually had minor outflows on Friday.
Just goes to show sensitive Bitcoin is to the US election.
CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜
German tradFi giants confirm trial to mine Bitcoin with surplus energy to stabilize grid. Telekom call the process of using Bitcoin to save wasted energy 'digital monetary photosynthesis'.
US regulators mull approving Grayscale crypto index ETF. Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund could be the first US ETF to hold altcoins such as Solana and AVAX if approved.
First UK Pension Fund Invests in Bitcoin. Moving bitcoin into pension schemes is “a bold step that reflects the forward-thinking nature of the trustees involved,” pension specialist Cartwright told Corporate Advisor magazine.
Coinbase accused of charging substantial 'listing fees' by Justin Sun and Andre Cronje. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong asserted that asset listings are free.
WHAT WE’RE READING 📚
Want to get even smarter? Check these out.
p.s. all completely FREE (one click subscribe link)
Raremints (link) - Daily crypto news
Bitcoin Breakdown (link) - Twice weekly Bitcoin news
Crypto Pragmatist (link) - Actionable alpha 3x a week
The Hustle (link) - Get Smarter on Business and Tech
Your Next Breakthrough (link) - Personal growth with Mark Manson
The Neuron (link) - AI trends and tools to keep you ahead
CAN YOU CRACK THIS NUT? ✍️
Select your answer below and you’ll be redirected to the results page. (answer explanation can be found after “Meme Corner”)
What hash function does Bitcoin use? |
MEME CORNER 😂
Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?
Trivia Answer: B) SHA-256 🥳
SHA-256 is a cryptographic hash function that produces a 256-bit hash value from any length of input data.
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NUTCASE REVIEW OF THE DAY 🔍
DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.
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