GM and welcome to The Crypto Nutshell! 🫶 🥜 

The crypto newsletter that won't deceive you like a secret agent with a license to kill... 🕶️🔫 

Today, we’ll discuss:

• Recapping the last 24 hours in the world of crypto 🌏

• Expert of the day title 🤑

• On chain data title💰

• And more…

MARKET WATCH ⚖️

BTC Dominance is currently at 50.15% and the current crypto market cap is $1.05T  ▼1.25%

Biggest Winners of The Day 🤑

• Shiba Inu (SHIB) ▲3.31%

• Dogecoin (DOGE) ▲2.59%

• TRON (TRX) ▲1.24%

Biggest Losers of The Day 😭

• Bitcoin (BTC) ▼2.25%

• Wrapped Bitcoin (WBTC) ▼2.08%

• Solana (SOL) ▼2.08%

Only the top 20 coins measured by market cap feature in this section

All price data as of 2:20am ET

SEC TO APPROVE ETH FUTURES ETF 🤑

JUST IN: SEC Greenlights Ether-Futures ETF in big win for Crypto Industry (or is it?) 🎉 

The green light from the SEC could pave the way for approvals from several firms that have filed ETH Futures ETFs. These firms include Volatility Shares, Bitwise, Roundhill and ProShares.

We are still waiting on the SECs decision on the various spot Bitcoin ETF applications. However, the SEC already approved a Bitcoin Futures ETF which launched in October 2021.

Everyone is celebrating the Ethereum news as a win - but is this actually good thing? 🤔 

Those expecting an Ethereum Futures ETF to be a bullish signal may want to take a look at the chart below…

The Bitcoin futures ETF launched at the peak of the bull market. In the 12 months that followed, the Bitcoin price fell over 70% 📉

Keep in mind, we can never 100% predict the future based on past performances, but a futures ETF does open the door for institutions to ‘short’ or bet against an asset. This could put immense downwards pressure on Ethereum.

Regardless, an approval does bode well for a spot Bitcoin ETF being approved in the coming months.

On top of this, it also opens the door for a spot Ethereum ETF to be approved down the road - so in our eyes, this is still a win for crypto. 🏆

EXPERT OF THE DAY 💰

On-chain analyst Plan B believes that the next Bitcoin bull market cycle is inevitable and that indicators suggest an average price of around $300,000. 

Plan B is arguably the most famous on-chain Bitcoin analyst, rising to prominence for his spooky accurate calls and being the brains behind models such as Stock2Flow. 🧠

On top of this, he has decades of experience working as an institutional investor, meaning he intricately knows financial markets and modelling.

This week, Plan B released a new market update in which he did a deep dive on the Bitcoin Relative Strength Index or RSI. 

RSI is a number between 1-100 that measures an assets average gains, losses and changes in price.

The closer RSI is to 100, it suggests that an asset is overvalued and that it’s been bought too much recently. This could indicate it’s due for a pullback. 📉

If RSI is closer to 0, it suggests that an asset is undervalued and that it’s been oversold. This indicates it will bounce back or go up soon. 📈

For normal financial instruments, like stocks, their RSI usually sits between 30-70.

Because Bitcoin is so volatile & historically been in an uptrend, its RSI usually sits between 40-90.

Looking at the historical chart of Bitcoins RSI, the bull & bear market cycles are clear to see.

At the peak of a bull market, RSI usually reads above 90. Whereas in the depths of a bear market, RSI usually reads between 40-50.

Plan B argues that RSI is a useful indicator to judge where we are in the cycle & if it’s a good time to be buying or selling.

Looking at the chart, it would suggest that we are out of the depths of the bear market and are currently in the beginning stages of a new bull-market.

Plan B went one step further & extrapolated out the RSI into 2024 & 2025.

If cycles repeat as they have historically, this would translate to an average price for the peak of the next bull market of around ~$300,000.

Let’s hope Plan B’s spooky accurate predictions continue on. 😉🥂 

Nutty's Takeaway: Looking at Bitcoin's past bull & bear market cycles, the pattern repetition is incredible.

Plan B is correct in that RSI currently suggests we are past the bear market and in the early stages of a bull market. Yet there's one more pattern to consider.

Look at the RSI a few months out before every halving (dark blue circles). Every single time before the halving, we see a steep decline in RSI right before the halving.

Although perhaps coincidence, it also suggests that in the next few months, we could also see quite a heavy pullback. Only time will tell. 🔮 

ON CHAIN DATA DIVE 📊

Yesterday we discussed how the market was top heavy and a large amount of short-term holders sold their coins.

Today we’ll break down just how large this selloff from short-term holders was. Brace yourselves. It’s pretty crazy. 🤪

We'll be jumping in to the Exchange Inflow Spent Output Age Bands chart. Now we know that this sounds complicated, but it's actually quite simple.

This metric tracks the selling activity within the Bitcoin market by categorising each coin into age bands based on the last time they were moved. This is super useful as we can identify the selling patterns of short-term and long-term holders.

As we know, the price crash triggered a massive sell-off mostly from those who have held Bitcoin for a short amount of time.

Let’s break these age bands down:

• 79% of Bitcoins sold were aged less than 1 day

• 7% were aged from 1 day to 1 week

• 6% were aged from 1 week to 1 month

• 4% were aged from 1 month to 3 months

• 1% were aged from 3 months to 6 months

This is wild. Short-term holders make up 97% of the Bitcoins transferred to exchanges for sale yesterday. 🤯

This makes sense as short-term holders react the most to price changes, especially sudden crashes like the one we saw yesterday…

However, HODLers are staying strong, as they always do.

CRACKING CRYPTO 🥜

TRIVIA TIME ✍️

What is the maximum number of bitcoins that can be created?

• A) 22 million

• B) 19 million

• C) 21 million

• D) 20 million

Find out the answer at the bottom of this newsletter 😀

MEME CORNER 😂

Because what would the crypto world be without its share of memes?

Trivia Answer: C) 21 million 🎉

The maximum supply of 21 million bitcoins will be reached around the year 2140, after which no new bitcoins can be mined.

NUTCASE REVIEW OF THE DAY 🔍

DISCLAIMER: The content of this newsletter is not financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice. Please be careful and do your own research.